River Flood Warning 52, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
406 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECAME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS WAS
FORMING IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND THIS WILL
BUILD INTO THE STATE OVERNIGHT.

WITH AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ALREADY IN THE NORTH...AND MORE RAIN INTO
THIS EVENING...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT.

SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE HAVE BEEN MOSTLY DRY THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOULD HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT
WILL LIKELY BE MORE SCATTERED.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL FEATURE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES IN THE COMING DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL TRY
TO HEAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS...BUT WILL ENCOUNTER THE
RIDGE AND STALL.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SURROUNDING
THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND. STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE HIT AND
MISS...WITH WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN NOT EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE NORTH/WEST NEAREST THE FRONT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE LONG TERM HAS INCREASED A GOOD DEAL TODAY.
AS SUCH...MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST THAT FURTHER
DEFINES THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

STARTING OFF ON MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED JUST
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA UP THROUGH MISSOURI. HAVE LEFT SOME 30 PERCENT POPS IN THE
NORTHWEST...TAPERING THEM OFF TO 15-20 PERCENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE STATE. REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIP FROM THE FAR SE MON
THROUGH TUE MORNING AS CONVECTION SHOULD STAY UP NORTH. LOWERED MAX
TEMPS ALONG THE MISSOURI BORDER TO AROUND 80 DEGREES FOR MON AND
TUE...WHICH MAY STILL BE TOO OPTIMISTIC...ESPECIALLY TUE...GIVEN THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. THAT SAID...IT IS LATE MAY SO IT
WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET INTO THE 80S.

THE FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO FAR NW ARKANSAS TUE AFTERNOON AS UPPER
WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD. BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE
NORTHWEST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THOUGH
WILL OCCUR ON WED AS POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS TEXAS AND
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. ASSOC SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT OVER ARKANSAS ON WED...THEN SHIFT INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WED NIGHT. SURFACE FRONT WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY...
SHIFTING SE THROUGH ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY WED AND MOVING EAST OF
ARKANSAS BY THU MORNING. LEFT POPS SHY OF LIKELY CATEGORIES ON WED
MAINLY DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A SLIGHT CHANCE IN TIMING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT FROPA WILL OCCUR WED AFTERNOON. MIDDAY
THU ONWARD LOOKS TO BE DRY.

BEHIND THE FRONT...MORE COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS ON THU
AND FRI WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 70S AREA WIDE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     67  83  67  83 /  70  50  30  30
CAMDEN AR         71  87  69  87 /  40  30  30  30
HARRISON AR       66  82  64  82 /  90  30  20  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    69  86  69  86 /  60  30  30  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  69  85  69  86 /  60  50  30  30
MONTICELLO AR     71  87  70  88 /  40  40  30  30
MOUNT IDA AR      69  85  67  85 /  60  30  30  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  81  64  83 /  90  40  30  30
NEWPORT AR        68  83  67  85 /  60  50  30  30
PINE BLUFF AR     70  86  69  87 /  50  40  30  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   68  84  66  84 /  80  40  30  30
SEARCY AR         68  84  66  86 /  60  50  30  30
STUTTGART AR      69  85  69  87 /  50  50  30  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-
NEWTON-POPE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-YELL.

&&

SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...64

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