Flash Flood Warning 71, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
604 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
STATE...DRAPED FROM SW AR INTO ERN AR. MANY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY
CAUSE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS ACROSS THE STATE. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING AT CENTRAL SITES AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL
SPREAD TO OTHER SITES LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS TSRA ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE STATE BEYOND THIS
TAF CYCLE...WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL IMPROVED CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AN AREA OF BACK BUILDING STORMS ALIGNED ITSELF ACRS CNTRL AR DURG THE
NGT...WITH A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS SEEING 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL.
HERE AT THE WFO...WE HAVE SEEN JUST OVR 5 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE LATE
SAT EVENING. FNTL BNDRY PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WAS
SAGGING SWD INTO SRN AR ATTM.

UNSETTLED CONDS WL PREVAIL THRU THE REST OF THE PD...WITH THE FNTL
BNDRY EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVR THE FA. A SERIES OF UPR LVL IMPULSES
WL TRACK NEWD ACRS THE REGION AND FOCUS ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA ALONG
AND N OF THE BNDRY. EXTENDED THE FF WATCH 03/00Z FOR ALL BUT EXTREME
SERN AR. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL EXPECTED ROUGHLY
ALONG THE I-30/HWY 67/167 CORRIDOR...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES COMMON
ELSEWHERE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG/SVR STORMS...MAINLY S OF THE
BNDRY...WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.

LAST ROUND OF SIG RAINFALL WL BE ENDING ACRS THE FA FM THE W LATE
MON NGT AND TUE. LEFT SOME LINGERING POPS IN FOR ERN AREAS TUE
MRNG...WITH DRIER AIR MOVG IN LATER IN THE DAY/TUE NGT.

WL SEE A WIDE VARIATION IN TEMPS ACRS THE FA FM NW TO SE THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...HINGING OF COURSE ON WHERE THE BNDRY SETS UP. BASICALLY
STAYED CLOSE TO MOS TEMPS THRU THE PD...WITH JUST A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR WED INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THU WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE AND WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...
THE SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST THU AFTERNOON...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXITING THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE THU NIGHT...THEN LIFT NE EARLY FRI. A
COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SE TOWARDS THE REGION...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK IN THE FORECAST LATE THU INTO FRI MORNING...SOME
OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE. LATEST FORECAST SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING DRIER WITH THIS FRONT...WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIP LIMITED TO
THE NRN HALF OF THE STATE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON...
BUT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE STATE LATE IN THE PERIOD
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     68  48  57  45 /  90  90  80  70
CAMDEN AR         79  53  60  46 /  80  80  90  90
HARRISON AR       57  41  55  40 /  90  90  70  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    70  52  56  44 /  90  90  80  70
LITTLE ROCK   AR  74  53  59  47 /  90  90  80  90
MONTICELLO AR     82  61  64  49 /  80  80  90  90
MOUNT IDA AR      69  50  56  43 /  90  90  80  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  59  43  56  42 /  90  90  70  50
NEWPORT AR        70  50  58  46 /  90 100  80  90
PINE BLUFF AR     78  56  59  47 /  80  90  90  90
RUSSELLVILLE AR   68  48  60  42 /  90  90  80  60
SEARCY AR         69  52  56  46 /  90  90  80  80
STUTTGART AR      76  53  58  47 /  90  90  80  90
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-
FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-
JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-
NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-
SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

AVIATION...62

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
315 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-021000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
315 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED SOUTH INTO THE STATE ON SATURDAY HAS
STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT
THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE...WITH MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE STATE THROUGH TONIGHT.

FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAJOR CONCERN THROUGH AT LEAST
TONIGHT AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND LIKELY MOVE OVER OR NEAR LOCATIONS THAT ALREADY SAW
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS HAVE ALREADY
SEEN 2 TO OVER 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL SINCE SATURDAY EVENING. ANY
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY FOR
THIS PERSISTING FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO A CONTINUING THREAT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH MANY RIVERS ACROSS THE STATE REMAINING AT OR ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE YET TO SEE THE RIVERS
CREST...WITH CONTINUING RISES EXPECTED FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL. ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY EITHER AGGRAVATE THIS
SITUATION...OR AT LEAST SLOW THE RATE AT WHICH FLOOD WATERS
RECEDE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOME PORTION OF THE STATE THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. WHILE THERE WILL REMAIN AT LEAST SOME
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD...A VERY SIGNIFICANT
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. AN
ADDITIONAL 2 TO AS MUCH AS 5 INCHES OR MORE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH TUESDAY...IN AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. AGAIN...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY.

RIVER FLOODING CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE FOR MANY RIVERS ACROSS THE
STATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE THE ALREADY VERY SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING
SITUATION ONGOING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ALSO...ANY REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING
ARE ENCOURAGED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

62

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
816 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MORGAN                  34.88N 92.37W
05/01/2011  M8.70 INCH       PULASKI            AR   NWS EMPLOYEE

            IN THE MARCHE COMMUNITY...8.70 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN 10
            HOURS.

&&

28

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
923 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0918 AM     FLOOD            5 NW NORTH LITTLE ROCK  34.84N 92.32W
05/01/2011                   PULASKI            AR   NWS EMPLOYEE

            ONE TO THREE INCHES OF WATER OVER PARKING LOTE ALONG OVER
            OAK GROVE ROAD AT CHURCH. ONE CAR WASHED INTO DITCH ALONG
            ROAD.

&&

59

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
929 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 W DOWNTOWN LITTLE ROC 34.73N 92.29W
05/01/2011  M6.45 INCH       PULASKI            AR   PUBLIC

            6.45 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN CHENAL VALLEY BETWEEN DARK
            4/30/11 AND 9AM 5/1/11.

&&

51

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
940 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

ARZ030-037-038-040-041-011540-
LOGAN AR-MONTGOMERY AR-POLK AR-SCOTT AR-YELL AR-
940 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOGAN...SOUTHWESTERN
YELL...SCOTT...NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY AND POLK COUNTIES UNTIL 1045
AM CDT...

AT 939 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LAKE MENA...OR NEAR MENA...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN. THE HEAVY RAIN MAY
CAUSE FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING OVER THE AREA. RESIDENTS SHOULD
USE EXTRA CAUTION.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WALDRON...            MENA...
  QUEEN WILHELMINA SP...                      POLK CNTY FAIRGNDS...
  OPAL...               OLIVER...             ODEN...
  MUDDY CREEK WMA...    MCCAULEY...           LAKE WILHELMINA...
  LAKE MENA...          LAKE HINKLE...        HARTLEY...
  CARDIFF...            BEAUCHAMP...          Y CITY...
  WINFIELD...           UNION HILL...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3516 9405 3516 9403 3519 9402 3481 9350
      3435 9412 3435 9424 3426 9424 3423 9428
      3477 9444
TIME...MOT...LOC 1439Z 217DEG 36KT 3459 9418

/59

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1023 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 AM     FLASH FLOOD      E GRAVEL RIDGE          34.87N 92.19W
05/01/2011                   PULASKI            AR   PUBLIC

            FLOODING AT THE NEW BRITTANY APARTMENTS WITH CARS
            SUBMERGED.

0901 AM     FLASH FLOOD      JACKSONVILLE            34.87N 92.13W
05/01/2011                   PULASKI            AR   NWS EMPLOYEE

            HWY 67/167 IS FLOODED NORTH OF THE AIRBASE.

0938 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ALEXANDER               34.63N 92.44W
05/01/2011                   SALINE             AR   PUBLIC

            HWY 5 STAGECOACH RD IS UNDERWATER.

&&

225

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1030 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1026 AM     FLASH FLOOD      6 NW NORTH LITTLE ROCK  34.85N 92.33W
05/01/2011                   PULASKI            AR   NWS EMPLOYEE

            SECTION OF JAMES ROAD JUST EAST OF BLUE HILL HAS WASHED
            OUT DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD. ROAD IMPASSABLE
            WITH BARRICADES ON IT.

&&

59