Flash Flood Warning 69, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
604 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
STATE...DRAPED FROM SW AR INTO ERN AR. MANY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY
CAUSE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS ACROSS THE STATE. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING AT CENTRAL SITES AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL
SPREAD TO OTHER SITES LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS TSRA ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE STATE BEYOND THIS
TAF CYCLE...WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL IMPROVED CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AN AREA OF BACK BUILDING STORMS ALIGNED ITSELF ACRS CNTRL AR DURG THE
NGT...WITH A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS SEEING 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL.
HERE AT THE WFO...WE HAVE SEEN JUST OVR 5 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE LATE
SAT EVENING. FNTL BNDRY PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WAS
SAGGING SWD INTO SRN AR ATTM.

UNSETTLED CONDS WL PREVAIL THRU THE REST OF THE PD...WITH THE FNTL
BNDRY EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVR THE FA. A SERIES OF UPR LVL IMPULSES
WL TRACK NEWD ACRS THE REGION AND FOCUS ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA ALONG
AND N OF THE BNDRY. EXTENDED THE FF WATCH 03/00Z FOR ALL BUT EXTREME
SERN AR. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL EXPECTED ROUGHLY
ALONG THE I-30/HWY 67/167 CORRIDOR...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES COMMON
ELSEWHERE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG/SVR STORMS...MAINLY S OF THE
BNDRY...WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.

LAST ROUND OF SIG RAINFALL WL BE ENDING ACRS THE FA FM THE W LATE
MON NGT AND TUE. LEFT SOME LINGERING POPS IN FOR ERN AREAS TUE
MRNG...WITH DRIER AIR MOVG IN LATER IN THE DAY/TUE NGT.

WL SEE A WIDE VARIATION IN TEMPS ACRS THE FA FM NW TO SE THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...HINGING OF COURSE ON WHERE THE BNDRY SETS UP. BASICALLY
STAYED CLOSE TO MOS TEMPS THRU THE PD...WITH JUST A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR WED INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THU WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE AND WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...
THE SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST THU AFTERNOON...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXITING THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE THU NIGHT...THEN LIFT NE EARLY FRI. A
COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SE TOWARDS THE REGION...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK IN THE FORECAST LATE THU INTO FRI MORNING...SOME
OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE. LATEST FORECAST SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING DRIER WITH THIS FRONT...WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIP LIMITED TO
THE NRN HALF OF THE STATE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON...
BUT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE STATE LATE IN THE PERIOD
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     68  48  57  45 /  90  90  80  70
CAMDEN AR         79  53  60  46 /  80  80  90  90
HARRISON AR       57  41  55  40 /  90  90  70  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    70  52  56  44 /  90  90  80  70
LITTLE ROCK   AR  74  53  59  47 /  90  90  80  90
MONTICELLO AR     82  61  64  49 /  80  80  90  90
MOUNT IDA AR      69  50  56  43 /  90  90  80  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  59  43  56  42 /  90  90  70  50
NEWPORT AR        70  50  58  46 /  90 100  80  90
PINE BLUFF AR     78  56  59  47 /  80  90  90  90
RUSSELLVILLE AR   68  48  60  42 /  90  90  80  60
SEARCY AR         69  52  56  46 /  90  90  80  80
STUTTGART AR      76  53  58  47 /  90  90  80  90
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-
FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-
JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-
NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-
SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

AVIATION...62

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
315 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-021000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
315 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED SOUTH INTO THE STATE ON SATURDAY HAS
STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT
THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE...WITH MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE STATE THROUGH TONIGHT.

FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAJOR CONCERN THROUGH AT LEAST
TONIGHT AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND LIKELY MOVE OVER OR NEAR LOCATIONS THAT ALREADY SAW
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS HAVE ALREADY
SEEN 2 TO OVER 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL SINCE SATURDAY EVENING. ANY
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY FOR
THIS PERSISTING FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO A CONTINUING THREAT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH MANY RIVERS ACROSS THE STATE REMAINING AT OR ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE YET TO SEE THE RIVERS
CREST...WITH CONTINUING RISES EXPECTED FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL. ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY EITHER AGGRAVATE THIS
SITUATION...OR AT LEAST SLOW THE RATE AT WHICH FLOOD WATERS
RECEDE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOME PORTION OF THE STATE THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. WHILE THERE WILL REMAIN AT LEAST SOME
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD...A VERY SIGNIFICANT
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. AN
ADDITIONAL 2 TO AS MUCH AS 5 INCHES OR MORE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH TUESDAY...IN AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. AGAIN...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY.

RIVER FLOODING CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE FOR MANY RIVERS ACROSS THE
STATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE THE ALREADY VERY SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING
SITUATION ONGOING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ALSO...ANY REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING
ARE ENCOURAGED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

62

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
622 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NE CABOT              34.99N 92.00W
05/01/2011  M6.71 INCH       LONOKE             AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            6.71 INCHES OF RAIN FROM A COCORAHS SITE. SPOTTER ALSO
            REPORTED ABOUT A FOOT OF WATER OVER US 67/167 1.5 MI
            NORTH OF EXIT 16.

&&

62

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
812 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 AM     FLASH FLOOD      VILONIA                 35.08N 92.21W
05/01/2011                   FAULKNER           AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SWIFT WATER RESCUES WERE NECESSARY IN THE VILONIA AREA. A
            TOTAL OF 29 PEOPLE WERE EVACUATED FROM THE MAYFLOWER AND
            VILONIA AREAS.

&&

28

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
814 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0809 PM     HEAVY RAIN       PETIT JEAN STATE PARK   35.13N 92.90W
04/30/2011  M1.42 INCH       CONWAY             AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A TOTAL OF 1.42 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN 35 MINUTES.

&&

28

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
816 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MORGAN                  34.88N 92.37W
05/01/2011  M8.70 INCH       PULASKI            AR   NWS EMPLOYEE

            IN THE MARCHE COMMUNITY...8.70 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN 10
            HOURS.

&&

28