Flash Flood Warning 57, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
646 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

.AVIATION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
NOT END UNTIL THIS LOW MOVES EAST OF THE STATE. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY OVER THE AREA. THE
SURFACE LOW SHOULD GET A PUSH FROM THE UPPER LOW LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TODAY. IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE UPPER LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

STRONG CONVECTION NOW WELL EAST OF THE AREA...MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI EARLY THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
ONE FINAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE HEADED TOWARDS ARKANSAS. THIS WILL
FINALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON...TAKING THE
UPPER AND MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH IT AND FINALLY ENDING THE
PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. BEFORE THAT HAPPENS HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NOSE
OF A +100KT JET STREAK WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...COINCIDENT WITH FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. INFRARED SATELLITE
AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SOME PATCHY CONVECTION FORMING
OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS ALREADY...AND HIGH-RES
MODELS SHOW THIS TREND CONTINUING AS IT MOVES INTO/TOWARDS
ARKANSAS. CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED THOUGH AND THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE HAIL.

AFTER THIS UPPER SYSTEM CLEARS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE NON-EXISTENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS MID
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS WILL HOLD IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG OUT OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
STATE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH NOT LIKELY TO RIVAL ANYTHING THE STATE HAS
SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

STORM SYS WL BE DEPARTING TO THE E OF AR AT THE START OF THE PD.
SOME LINGERING PRECIP WL BE NOTED OVR ERN AR MON MRNG...BUT WL
QUICKLY SHIFT OUR OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRES BLDS INTO THE REGION.
HIGH PRES WL BRING DRIER AND COOLER CONDS TO THE REGION TO START THE
NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     66  45  73  49 /  60  20   0   0
CAMDEN AR         75  48  76  50 /  50  10   0   0
HARRISON AR       57  42  71  48 /  60  10   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    70  46  75  50 /  60  10   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  71  47  75  51 /  60  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     77  49  76  52 /  50  10   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      67  45  74  49 /  60  10   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  59  43  72  47 /  60  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        69  46  73  50 /  60  20   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     75  48  75  52 /  50  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   64  44  73  49 /  60  10   0   0
SEARCY AR         69  46  73  50 /  60  20   0   0
STUTTGART AR      73  48  74  52 /  60  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

AVIATION...51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-281000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
ARKANSAS TODAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES EASTWARD
THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS MAINLY
OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST
OF LINE FROM BATESVILLE...TO DANVILLE TO MOUNT IDA. DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
HOURS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDDAY OVER
MUCH OF ARKANSAS. AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY WELL SATURATED...ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL ONLY INCREASE THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

RIVER FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
BLACK AND UPPER WHITE RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO CREST IN THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO...WITH THE OUACHITA AND LOWER WHITE RIVER CONTINUING TO RISE
BEFORE CRESTING SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MEANWHILE...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WITH BRING AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NATURAL STATE LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
439 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

ARZ045-046-056-057-271025-
ARKANSAS AR-JEFFERSON AR-LONOKE AR-PRAIRIE AR-
439 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN PRAIRIE...SOUTHEASTERN
LONOKE...NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTIES UNTIL
530 AM CDT...

AT 439 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MIDLAND LAKE...OR NEAR PINE BLUFF...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  STUTTGART...          PINE BLUFF...         WARBRITTON...
  WABBASEKA...          RICHARDSON...         MADDING...
  LAKE PINE BLUFF...    HUMPHREY...           COTTONDALE...
  BRUMMITT...           BAYOU METO STATE GAME AREA...
  ALTHEIMER...          WATSON CHAPEL...      ROB ROY...
  PINEBERGEN...         NOBLE LAKE...         LODGE CORNER...
  LADD...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 530 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 35 AND 46.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3460 9162 3433 9135 3407 9202 3422 9214
TIME...MOT...LOC 0939Z 236DEG 45KT 3420 9199

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
534 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

ARZ043>046-055-056-271120-
GRANT AR-JEFFERSON AR-LONOKE AR-PRAIRIE AR-PULASKI AR-SALINE AR-
534 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN PRAIRIE...LONOKE...
SOUTHEASTERN PULASKI...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN SALINE...EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN GRANT AND NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 615 AM
CDT...

AT 534 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES SOUTH OF BREDLOW CORNER...OR 17 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF DWNTWN LITTLE ROCK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LONOKE...             HAZEN...              TOLTEC MOUNDS SP...
  SISEMORE...           SCOTT...              REDFIELD...
  PRAIRIE CENTER...     PARKERS CORNER...     METO...
  MCCREANOR...          KEO...                HENSLEY ISLAND...
  ESTES...              ENGLAND...            CARLISLE...
  BARRETTSVILLE...      WRIGHT...             WOODSON...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 168 AND 191.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 530 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 11 AND 19.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3500 9181 3474 9151 3437 9209 3452 9231
TIME...MOT...LOC 1034Z 226DEG 44KT 3453 9208

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
723 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

ARZ033-034-045-046-271255-
LONOKE AR-PRAIRIE AR-WHITE AR-WOODRUFF AR-
723 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WHITE...SOUTHWESTERN
WOODRUFF...NORTHERN PRAIRIE AND NORTHEASTERN LONOKE COUNTIES UNTIL
800 AM CDT...

AT 723 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZED HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS NEAR WATTENSAW...OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF LONOKE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  THURMAN...            SISEMORE...           PRYOR...
  GEORGETOWN...         DES ARC...            BARRETTSVILLE...
  WOODLAWN...           JASMINE...            HICKORY PLAINS...
  HAYLEY...             FAIRVIEW...           BUTLERVILLE...
  WHEATON LAKE...       WATTENSAW...          WATERPROOF...
  TAYLOR SLOUGH...      REDMAN LAKE...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 176 AND 181.

LAT...LON 3520 9153 3503 9136 3476 9183 3491 9197
TIME...MOT...LOC 1223Z 232DEG 50KT 3490 9181

64