Flash Flood Warning 52, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
652 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

.AVIATION...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH TEXAS. SEVERAL WAVES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH ARKANSAS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THIS
LOW MOVES THROUGH THE STATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011/

..HIGH RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING TO THE OVERNIGHT OVER
ARKANSAS...

DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS AGAIN ARE FIRST PERIOD SEVERE STORMS WITH HIGH TO
SLIGHT RISK OVER ALL OF AR. STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE EXPECTED RAIN AND WITH CURRENT FLOODING AND
ELEVATED AREAS AND SATURATED GROUND. FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED CONVECTION JUST STARTING TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON IN
OVERALL MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE
THIS LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. TIMING OF SEVERE STORM
INITIATION WILL BE A BIT LATER THAN YESTERDAY...AS THE UPPER
DYNAMICS SWING INTO AR THIS EVENING TO OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY
GENERALLY OVER WESTERN AR WITH 70 TEMPS AND UPPER 60S DEW POINT
TEMPS OVER SOUTHERN AR. 12Z KLZK SOUNDING QUITE UNSTABLE WITH LI
-7...AROUND 1 INCH PRECIP WATER...AND LIGHT SURFACE FLOW TO A SW
JET 40 KNOTS 2K TO 5K FT. AFTER MODIFICATION CONDITIONS BECOME
MORE PRONE FOR SEVERE STORMS. UPPER DYNAMICS ARE SEEN IN THE UPPER
FLOW OVER SW PLAINS AT THIS TIME.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
INITIAL STORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH LIFTING BOUNDARY AND SOME WEAKER DYNAMICS WITH THE IN PLACE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...MOVING IN OVER AR. THEN STRONG
DYNAMICS WILL SET UP LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH THE
MAIN LOW AND COLD FRONT. THEN A SQUALL LINE OF STORMS WITH POSSIBLE
FRONT EDGE ROTATION WILL MOVE ACROSS AR. CONVECTION WILL FINALLY
BE WINDING DOWN 06Z T0 12Z OVER EASTERN AR...WITH LIGHTER SHOWERS
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER DYNAMICS PUSH
EAST. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NE WHILE
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES TO MS. THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOME CONCERN WITH THE UPPER LOW AND BACK SIDE
DYNAMICES WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS OVER NORTHERN
AR. LOW SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST. PRECIP MAY NEED TO BE ADDED. ALSO
WINDS WILL BE UP ON WEDNESDAY TO LAKE WIND ADVISORY...BUT WILL
HOLD OFF TO LIMIT NUMBER OF HEADLINES ON PRODUCTS. MAINLY DRY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH COOLER TEMPS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY TO START THE
PERIOD WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE
EASTERN U.S. MONDAY AND A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER ARKANSAS TUESDAY.

MODELS ARE INDICATING MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.
INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE FROM OKLAHOMA THROUGH
ARKANSAS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF ARKANSAS LATE SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL END IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     57  66  45  73 /  70  60  10  10
CAMDEN AR         65  75  48  77 /  80  50  10  10
HARRISON AR       53  60  42  72 /  70  60  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    61  69  46  75 /  80  60  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  61  71  46  75 /  80  60  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     66  78  48  77 /  80  50  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      60  66  45  74 /  80  60  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  54  61  43  72 /  70  60  10  10
NEWPORT AR        59  69  46  73 /  80  60  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     64  75  48  76 /  80  60  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   57  65  44  73 /  70  60  10  10
SEARCY AR         59  69  46  74 /  80  60  10  10
STUTTGART AR      63  74  48  75 /  80  60  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.

&&

AVIATION...51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
826 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-271000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
826 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH ARKANSAS...

HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN ACROSS THE
STATE...AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE ONE TO FOUR INCHES...
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER SATURATED
GROUND...WITH FLASH FLOODING LIKELY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

IN ADDITION TO FLASH FLOODING...RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN...
AS THE RIVERS RISE DUE TO RUNOFF. THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN FOR
TODAY ARE IN THE WHITE RIVER BASIN...INCLUDING THE BUFFALO...
SPRING...ELEVEN POINT...BLACK AND WHITE RIVERS.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AS A SYSTEM MOVES ALONG A STALLED FRONT OVER THE STATE.
THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
ARKANSAS...WITH LONG TRACK TORNADOES POSSIBLE ALONG WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL. AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS...THE CONCERN WILL CHANGE TO DAMAGING
WINDS...AS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

RIVER FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AS IT WILL
TAKE SOME TIME FOR WATER LEVELS TO RECEDE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND TONIGHT...FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

58

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
708 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0708 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 E CHOCTAW             35.53N 92.39W
04/26/2011                   VAN BUREN          AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FUNNEL CLOUD WAS REPORTED.

&&

55

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
718 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0704 PM     HAIL             5 NE CLINTON            35.63N 92.39W
04/26/2011  E1.75 INCH       VAN BUREN          AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

55

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
724 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0718 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 N VELVET RIDGE        35.43N 91.58W
04/26/2011                   WHITE              AR   AMATEUR RADIO

            FUNNEL CLOUD WAS REPORTED.

&&

55

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
729 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0718 PM     TORNADO          WICKES                  34.30N 94.34W
04/26/2011                   POLK               AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES REPORTED BLOWN DOWN. TORNADO CONFIRMED BY SPOTTERS.

&&

55

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
742 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0741 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     PINE BLUFF              34.21N 92.02W
04/26/2011                   JEFFERSON          AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED OVER PINE BLUFF.

&&

55

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
801 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     HAIL             RUSSELLVILLE            35.27N 93.14W
04/26/2011  E0.75 INCH       POPE               AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

57