Flash Flood Warning 46, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
457 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ONE MORE ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAIN...AND THEN A
BREAK IS EXPECTED. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL HEAD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO ARKANSAS TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL
INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE STATE TO BRING
SEVERE STORMS MAINLY TO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.
THIS IS THE SAME AREA THAT WILL LIKELY GET THE MOST RAIN
OVERNIGHT...WITH TWO TO FOUR INCH AMOUNTS AND LOCALLY MORE.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING
AREA...AND MENTIONED THAT THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS
SITUATION. MUCH OF THE AREA HAS ALREADY RECEIVED HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAIN...AND THE GROUND IS SATURATED. RUNOFF WILL
BE HIGH...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE FLASH FLOOD CONCERN. WATER
RESCUES AND ROAD CLOSURES ARE LIKELY.

THERE COULD BE MORE TORNADOES TONIGHT...AGAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTH/EAST. STORMS COULD EVOLVE INTO AN MCS...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS BECOMING WIDESPREAD.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
ENDING. GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED...AND A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE STATE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL IN THE MORNINGS...BUT
WILL WARM INTO THE 70S DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL WILL BE WITH A FRONT ENTERING THE STATE
SATURDAY...AND REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. TIMING IS
BETTER TONIGHT WITH THIS FRONT...AND HAVE CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS OF NOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT
WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE STATE...AND COULD AFFECT THE REGION AGAIN
JUST PAST THE LONG TERM.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     76  58  66  45 /  50  70  60  10
CAMDEN AR         81  66  75  46 /  40  80  50  10
HARRISON AR       73  54  59  42 /  40  70  60  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    78  62  69  45 /  60  80  60  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  79  62  71  46 /  60  80  60  10
MONTICELLO AR     83  67  78  48 /  40  80  50  10
MOUNT IDA AR      76  61  66  44 /  60  80  60  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  74  55  61  43 /  40  70  60  10
NEWPORT AR        77  60  69  46 /  50  80  60  10
PINE BLUFF AR     81  65  75  47 /  50  80  60  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   76  58  65  44 /  50  70  60  10
SEARCY AR         77  60  69  46 /  60  80  60  10
STUTTGART AR      80  64  74  48 /  60  80  60  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.

&&

SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-271000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN ACROSS THE
STATE...AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE ONE TO FOUR INCHES...
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER SATURATED
GROUND...WITH FLASH FLOODING LIKELY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR ENTIRE AREA.

IN ADDITION TO FLASH FLOODING...RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN...
AS THE RIVERS RISE DUE TO RUNOFF. THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN FOR
TODAY ARE IN THE WHITE RIVER BASIN...INCLUDING THE BUFFALO...
SPRING...ELEVEN POINT...BLACK AND WHITE RIVERS.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AS A SYSTEM MOVES ALONG A STALLED FRONT OVER THE STATE.
THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. AS THE EVENT
UNFOLDS...THE CONCERN WILL CHANGE TO DAMAGING WINDS...AS A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

RIVER FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AS IT WILL
TAKE SOME TIME FOR WATER LEVELS TO RECEDE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND TONIGHT...FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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