Flash Flood Warning 34, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
651 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS

SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE SRN 4 TAF SITES
IN THE NEAR FUTURE AND CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
PREVAILING GPS AT THESE SITES. BY 06Z...ALL SITES SHOULD BE CLEAR
OF TSTORMS BUT LOW CLOUDS/BR SHOULD HANG THROUGH LATE MORNING. THE
NEXT ROUND OF STORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL VERY NEAR THE END OF THE
TAF PD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN IS FORECAST EVENTS DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE
VALID FORECAST PERIOD.

CONTINUING TO MONITOR SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...AS WELL AS FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE NORTH. STRONGEST CONVECTION CONTINUES TO TRAIN ACROSS AN INSTABILITY
GRADIENT...AND THROUGH AN AXIS OF HIGHEST 0-3KM SHEAR. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...WITH THE OVERALL
INTENSITY SLOWLY WEAKENING.

NEXT ROUND OF SEVERE CONVECTION APPEARS FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON....ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS.
EXPECT SUFFICIENT RECOVERY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING
TO SUPPORT SEVERE CONVECTION.

55

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     59  76  54  66 /  70  40  60  60
CAMDEN AR         63  81  63  75 /  60  40  70  50
HARRISON AR       53  73  49  59 /  70  30  50  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    61  78  59  69 /  70  40  70  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  62  79  60  71 /  70  40  70  60
MONTICELLO AR     65  83  64  78 /  60  50  70  50
MOUNT IDA AR      59  76  56  66 /  70  30  70  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  55  74  50  61 /  70  30  50  60
NEWPORT AR        61  77  57  69 /  70  50  70  60
PINE BLUFF AR     64  81  63  75 /  70  50  70  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   58  76  55  65 /  70  30  60  60
SEARCY AR         61  77  58  69 /  70  50  70  60
STUTTGART AR      64  80  62  74 /  70  50  70  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-
FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
FULTON-IZARD-JOHNSON-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE.

&&

AVIATION...63

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
212 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-261000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
212 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN ACROSS THE
STATE...AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
ARKANSAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE ONE TO THREE
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER
SATURATED GROUND...WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IS IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE AREA.

IN ADDITION TO FLASH FLOODING...RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN...
AS THE RIVERS RISE DUE TO RUNOFF. THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN FOR
TODAY ARE IN THE WHITE RIVER BASIN...INCLUDING THE BUFFALO...
SPRING...ELEVEN POINT...BLACK AND WHITE RIVERS.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LAST NIGHT HAVE LEFT A
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. CONTINUED RAIN
SHOWERS NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL SOMEWHAT MINIMIZE THE TORNADO
THREAT IN FAR NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE STATE...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THE
THREAT WILL REMAIN FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO POTENTIALLY
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT MAY BE
MAXIMIZED IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS EVENING IN VICINITY OF THE
BOUNDARY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY
RECEIVED SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MIDWEEK
MAY EXCEED 5 INCHES...WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...RIVER FLOODING WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN...AS IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR ALL THE WATER TO MOVE
DOWNSTREAM.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY...AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE STATE. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR TUESDAY EVENING...WHEN
EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL AGAIN
BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE. THIS AREA IS IN A MODERATE RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...WITH A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BRING AN END TO THE RAINFALL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT RIVER FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN EVEN AFTER THE
RAINFALL ENDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

58/63

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
811 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0806 PM     TSTM WND GST     CABOT                   34.97N 92.02W
04/25/2011  E60 MPH          LONOKE             AR   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

57

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
813 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     HAIL             9 W DOWNTOWN LITTLE ROC 34.73N 92.39W
04/25/2011  E1.00 INCH       PULASKI            AR   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

57

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
815 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     HAIL             MAUMELLE                34.85N 92.41W
04/25/2011  E0.75 INCH       PULASKI            AR   PUBLIC

&&

57

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
817 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     CABOT                   34.97N 92.02W
04/25/2011                   LONOKE             AR   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

57

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
818 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0806 PM     HAIL             LONOKE                  34.79N 91.90W
04/25/2011  E1.00 INCH       LONOKE             AR   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

57

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
820 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     JACKSONVILLE            34.87N 92.13W
04/25/2011                   PULASKI            AR   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

57