Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
638 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT IS POSITIONED ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND NEW ENGLAND.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BRING DRIER AND
COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER A MODEST TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...A SECOND COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT THE
AREA MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 2 AM TONIGHT. RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
CONTINUE BEYOND THE END TIME OF THE PREVIOUS WATCH /8 PM/. PREV...

MOIST AND WARM AMS RMNS IN PLACE TDA. OVC SKIES E OF MTNS HAVE
ERODED AND BEEN REPLACED BY INCRG CU FIELD AMID DP MSTR. THETA-E
RDG WILL SHARPEN ACRS ERN ZONES AND LIFT WILL INCR FROM W AS RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT OF JET STREAK OVER OH MOVES SLGTLY EWD THRU THE AFTN.

MODIFIED 12Z KIAD SOUNDING REVEALS MDT CAPE AND BULK SHEAR
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CELLULAR CNVCTN. MSTR ADVCTN AT H8-H7 AND
DRY AIR ABV WILL SUPPORT THREAT OF DMGG WINDS AND LRG HAIL. LOW-
LVL HODOGRAPH WILL BE INCRGLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES WITH ANY
SFC-BASED TSTMS.

PCPN LULL IS XPCD LATE THIS EVE BFR ARRIVAL OF CDFNT INTO FCST
AREA. TWO VORTICITY LOBES WILL IMPACT THE FCST AREA TNGT AND TMW.
THE FIRST WILL FUEL SVR TSTM DVLPMT ALONG THE IMPINGING FRONTAL
BNDRY IN WRN ZONES LATE TNGT. THE SECOND WILL CROSS THE RGN
TMW...AND ITS APRCH LKLY WILL SLOW THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE
CDFNT.

CDFNT WILL CROSS THE RMNDR OF THE FCST AREA LATE THU MRNG-EARLY
THU AFTN WITH RENEWED SVR WX POTENTIAL E OF BLUE RDG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
PROGRESS THRU THE AREA...WHICH WILL ENHANCE CLOUD COVER OVER THE CWA
THRU FRI...BUT IT SHOULD STAY DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WRN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AS
CYCLONIC/UPSLOPE FLOW AROUND THE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS.
FRI WILL FEEL MORE LIKE SPRING...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
HIGHLANDS AND NEAR 70F EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
30S AND 40S. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EXITING LOW AND
HIPRES BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS
WITH AFTN GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIPRES DOMINATES THE REGIONAL WX PATTERN THRU MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE IT MOVES OFF THE COAST SUN. A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHES THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION MON/TUE. THERE ARE STILL
TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG OPERATIONAL MODELS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY STORMS DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TIMING OF FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIND SPDS WILL BE QUITE ELEVATED THRU THU AS PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. HAVE OMITTED WIND SHEAR RMKS TNGT SINCE BNDRY LYR WILL
BE WELL-MIXED. TURBULENCE WILL BE COMMON.

TSTMS LKLY THIS AFTN...SPCLY NEAR KMRB/KCHO BUT ARE INCRGLY LKLY
AT RMNG TERMINALS ALSO. TSTMS XPCD ALL TERMINALS LATE TNGT THRU
EARLY THU AFTN. SOME TSTMS COULD BE SVR DURG THIS TIME. CDFNT
CROSSES THRU TERMINALS BY THU AFTN.

VFR CONDITIONS THU NGT THRU THE WEEKEND AS HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BUILDING HIGH AND
EXITING LOPRES TO OUR NORTH WILL CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS FRI WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADZY RMNS IN EFFECT THRU TNGT ALL ZONES AS PRES
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND SLY WINDS WILL CHANNEL. GUSTS WILL INCR
THU AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER AHEAD OF APRCHG CDFNT. GALE WRNG
WAS ISSUED FOR SRN PORTIONS OF MD CHSPK BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC RVR.
SMALL CRAFT ADZY RMNS IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE.

SCA CONTINUES INTO THU EVE FOR THE LOWER HALF OF THE MD CHSPK BAY
AND THE LWR TIDAL POTOMAC. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDSWINDS WILL
RELAX THIS WEEKEND AS HIPRES SETTLES OVER THE AREA. SLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR SCA LVLS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT LATE SUN INTO
MON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALIES OF 0.5-1.0 FT NOTED ATTM. SLY FLOW WILL
DO NOTHING TO LESSEN THESE DEPARTURES. AS SLY WINDS INCR TNGT AND
TMW...THRESHOLDS MAY BE MARGINALLY EXCEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING...SPCLY THU MRNG. WILL CONT TO MONITOR FCSTD WATER LVLS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE BROKEN AGAIN...THIS TIME AT DCA
AND IAD WHILE BWI ALREADY DROPPED 1F BELOW THE CURRENT RECORD HIGH
MIN TEMP. A LIST OF THE MIN TEMPS THIS MRNG AND 4/27 RECORD HIGH MIN
TEMPS FOR THE THREE MAJOR AIRPORTS ARE LISTED BELOW...

MIN TEMPS SO FAR TODAY /AS OF 12 PM EDT/
DCA   66
BWI   67
IAD   68

RECORD HI MIN TEMPS FOR 4/27
   MIN TEMP   YR

DCA   65     1908/1990/1994
BWI   68     1915
IAD   63     2009

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MDZ003-501-502.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VAZ025>028-503-504.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR WVZ050>052-055-501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>532-
     535-536-538>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ533-541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ534-537-
     543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ534-537-543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

&&

PELOQUIN/KRAMAR/JRK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
635 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ006-007-011-013-014-016>018-VAZ052>057-
281000-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR-
CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY-
CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER-
PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD-
TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-
CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
635 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
OUTLOOK AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. ANY STORMS THIS EVENING WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.

TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL INCREASE TODAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS
TODAY. WATER LEVELS MAY APPROACH THRESHOLDS FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING LATE TONIGHT FOR LOW-LYING AREAS ALONG THE TIDAL POTOMAC
RIVER AND THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY ALONG THE TIDAL
POTOMAC RIVER AND THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE
BAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY ACROSS
THE OUTLOOK AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION. SOME STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND LARGE HAIL. STORMS ALSO MAY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THURSDAY FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE
BAY FROM DRUM POINT TO SMITH POINT...AND FOR THE TIDAL POTOMAC
RIVER FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND
TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE LOWER
TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NORTH
BEACH.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND LIKELY WILL
BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

MDZ003>005-009-010-501-502-VAZ025>031-036>040-042-050-051-501>504-
WVZ050>053-055-501>506-281000-
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA-
ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-
ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND-
EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-
635 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTLOOK AREA UNTIL 2 AM LATE
TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA. SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. STORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND ALSO
COULD BE SEVERE. SOME STORMS ALSO COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL
THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT FOR THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY...NORTH-CENTRAL
MARYLAND AND THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE. PLEASE REFER TO
THE LATEST HAZARD MESSAGE /FFALWX/ FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY FOR
COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. SOME STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING.

A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE RIDGE TOPS OF THE POTOMAC
AND ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS THURSDAY FOR STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON...AND LIKELY WILL
BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
529 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     HAIL             4 N BELMONT             38.20N  77.87W
04/27/2011  E0.88 INCH       ORANGE             VA   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1100514

SUFFERN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
547 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

VAZ050>052-055-502-272215-
ORANGE VA-STAFFORD VA-CULPEPER VA-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK VA-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER VA-
547 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT ORANGE...STAFFORD...CULPEPER...
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK AND SOUTHERN FAUQUIER
COUNTIES...

AT 548 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES
EAST OF RACCOON FORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BEALETON.

PENNY-SIZE TO NICKEL-SIZE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3865 7785 3860 7748 3830 7787 3837 7799
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 219DEG 35KT 3839 7787

KRAMAR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
622 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 SSE GARRISONVILLE     38.46N  77.41W
04/27/2011                   STAFFORD           VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PASSING OVER 95. LOWERING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1100515

STRONG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
626 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0614 PM     TORNADO          2 W TRIANGLE            38.55N  77.35W
04/27/2011                   PRINCE WILLIAM     VA   AWOS

            REPORTED BY QUANTICO OBSERVER 1 TO 2 MILES WEST OF
            QUANTICO.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1100517

STRONG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
626 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

VAZ052-055-272300-
STAFFORD VA-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK VA-
626 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT STAFFORD AND PRINCE
WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK COUNTIES...

AT 626 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
ROSEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE GARRISONVILLE.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3861 7746 3850 7736 3843 7756 3849 7760
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 237DEG 30KT 3848 7751

KRAMAR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
644 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0643 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     POTOMAC HEIGHTS         38.61N  77.12W
04/27/2011                   CHARLES            MD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER CHN41

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1100518

STRONG