River Flood Warning 75, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1159 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE INTERACTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND LOW PRESSURE
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A DEEP
FEED OF MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THERE WAS
ALSO A LINGERING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
ONGOING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDDAY ACROSS THE BULK OF THE WASHINGTON-BALTIMORE METRO AREA
WHILE AREAS WEST OF THERE GENERALLY REMAIN DRY BUT WITH SOME FOG
AND/OR DRIZZLE.

EXPECT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE AXIS MAY SHIFT A LITTLE MORE TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST AND POPS REFLECT THIS EXPECTED CHANGE.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AS WELL /NOT TO MENTION LOW FFG/
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A THREAT.

SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT HAS LESSENED FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...HOWEVER WITH LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY NEAR THE BAY AND SOME
SHEAR...STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO IN ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS.

UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. EXPECT MORE
SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE CWA TONIGHT...AGAIN WITH A SLIGHTLY WESTWARD
SHIFT COMPARED TO WHAT/S ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPR LOW WL BE THE PRIMARY PLAYER FRI...PRODUCING AN UNSTBL
AMS. POPS WL BE LWR...AND PLACING A HIER EMPHASIS ON TSRA VS HVY
RAIN. AXIS WL CONT TO BECOME MORE W-E BTWN KATIA AND FORMER LEE.
THAT/LL LEAD TO HIER POPS /LKLY/ ACRS NRN MD...AND DROPPING DOWN
TO CHC/SCHC OVNGT.

THERE/S A WIDE SPREAD IN TEMP GDNC...WHICH WL DEPEND PRTLY ON
CLDCVR. PAST CPL DAYS...ERRING COLDER HAS BEEN PREFERRED. SINCE
XPCTG THE START FO THE DAY TO BE SHROUDED BY LOW CLDS...HV OPTED
TO STAY COLD TIL TREND PROVES OTRW. ACKNOWLEDGE THAT ENUF DRYING
MAY WORK IN TO BURST THRU THE LOW DECK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PERSISTENT CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL CAUSE PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE ENTRAINING MOIST AIR FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC ACROSS THE CWA. THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...THERE ARE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EACH DAY.
HOWEVER...BY SUNDAY CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS ALONG WITH THE GRADUAL
ZONAL ELONGATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHICH WILL SHIFT FLOW
LARGELY TO THE WEST...WILL HELP TO LOWER PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE WEAKENING STACKED LOW
MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK CREATING THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION. DUE TO THIS...SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
DECREASING CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO
ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
AS THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN BEGINS TO TRANSITION...DRIER
CONTINENTAL AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE CWA HELPING TO LOWER RH VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE A COMBINATION OF LOW CIGS AND LOW VSBYS THIS MORNING. MOST
TERMINALS ARE IN IFR OR LIFR AT 13Z. GIVEN AN EASTERLY FLOW THIS
IS GOING TO BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE. MAY SEE IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT
DCA/BWI BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH MORE SHOWERS THEY COULD
PRODUCE IFR VSBYS AT TIMES EVEN IF CIGS DO COME UP FOR A TIME. BUT
LIKE YESTERDAY...ANY IMPROVEMENT ABOVE IFR WILL BE BRIEF AND
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DEGRADE AGAIN THIS EVENING. THIS WOULD OCCUR
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS BUT OF COURSE THERE WILL ALSO SHOWERS
AROUND BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK COULD OCCASIONALLY LOWER
VISIBILITIES AT AREA TERMINALS. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO RISE AS
DRIER AIR BECOMES ENTRAINED ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.MARINE...
WNDS AOB 10 KT ATTM...AND XPCT ELY FLOW AT SIMLR SPDS THRU THE DAY
AND INTO THE NGT. NO ADVYS ANTICIPATED. BUT...TSRA CAN BE XPCTD...
SPCLY IN THE MIDDAY HRS...CONTG INTO TNGT.

DECREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND. PRIMARILY LIGHT WINDS INCREASING TO ABOUT 10KT IN THE
AFTERNOONS SHOULD LIMIT WAVES TO 2 FT OR LESS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALTHOUGH WE ARE SEEING A BADLY-NEEDED LULL IN THE HEAVY PRECIP OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND...EXTREME RAINFALL FROM THE PAST 24
HOURS /AND REALLY PAST FIVE DAYS/ HAS DONE PLENTY OF DAMAGE ALREADY.
NUMEROUS ROADS ARE STILL CLOSED WITH STREAMS AND RIVERS OUT OF THEIR
BANKS...AND EVEN THOUGH THE RAIN HAS SLACKENED...SOME OF THESE
RIVERS ACTUALLY CONTINUE TO RISE FROM RUNOFF AND UPSTREAM FLOW.
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THIS. EXTENSION OF THESE
WARNINGS...AND ISSUANCE OF ADDITIONAL ONES...ARE BOTH PROBABLY
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RAIN TODAY HAS SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE WEST...INTO AREAS THAT
HAVE GENERALLY SEEN LITTLE RAIN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. WE WILL STILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR TRAINING BANDS THAT COULD DROP A LOT OF RAINFALL.

IT IS WORTH STRESSING THAT NONE OF THESE STREAMS WILL AFFECT THE
POTOMAC...SHENANDOAH...OR RAPPAHANNOCK RIVERS. THERE IS A CREST OF
WATER MOVING DOWN THE POTOMAC...WITH SOME LOCAL INFLOW COMING FROM
THE MONOCACY...SENECA CREEK...AND ROCK CREEK. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED
TO CAUSE FLOODING...THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR INDUNDATION OF
LOW WATER SPOTS AT EDWARDS FERRY...AND WHITES FERRY HAS BEEN
REPORTED CLOSED...WHICH OCCURS WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

THE SMALL FRESHWATER PUSH IS ALSO UNLIKELY TO CREATE SIGNIFICANT
ISSUES ON THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC...BUT THERE ARE TIDAL-RELATED
CONCERNS. FOR MORE ON THAT SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD SECTION.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SUSTAINED E/SE FLOW WILL KEEP THE CURRENT 1 TO 2 FT ANOMALY ALONG
THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE AND TIDAL POTOMAC THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.  THIS WILL SUSTAIN THE ADVISORY/MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TIDE CYCLES.
FOR THE TIDE TO SURPASS THE MODERATE THRESHOLD WHICH WOULD INVOKE A
WARNING...THERE WOULD HAVE TO BE 2.5 TO 3.0 ANOMALY.  NEITHER THE
MDL EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE OR CBOFS GUIDANCE IS GIVING THAT TYPE
OF ANOMALY AT ANY OF OUR TIDAL FORECAST LOCATIONS.

WINDS WILL STAY E/SE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT KEEPING THE
ANOMALY IN THE BAY AND POTOMAC...SO IT IS LIKELY THAT THE COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY WILL HAVE TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND THURSDAY EVENING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR DCZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MDZ003>007-009>011-
     013-014.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ007-
     011-013-014-016>018.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ016>018.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ042-052>054.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ052>055-057.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ051>053.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...BPP/HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...CJL
AVIATION...BPP/HTS/CJL
MARINE...HTS/CJL
HYDROLOGY...JE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1009 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ006-007-011-013-014-016>018-VAZ052>057-
091000-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR-
CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY-
CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER-
PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD-
TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-
CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
1009 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 2AM FOR METRO
WASHINGTON AND ANNAPOLIS NORTHWARD. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
FLOOD WATCH MESSAGE FOR DETAILS.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANT BE RULED OUT IN
ANY THUNDERSTORM.

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER THROUGH 8PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER POTOMAC RIVER
AND ITS TRIBUTARIES THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED. PLEASE RELAY REPORTS OF
FLOODING AND HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

MDZ003>005-009-010-501-502-VAZ025>031-036>040-042-050-051-501>504-
WVZ050>053-055-501>506-091000-
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA-
ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-
ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND-
EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-
1009 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED AND EXPANDED WESTWARD THROUGH
2AM FOR THE WASHINGTON DC AND BALTIMORE SUBURBS WEST TO MARTINSBURG
AND HAGERSTOWN. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH MESSAGE FOR
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED. PLEASE RELAY REPORTS OF
FLOODING AND HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1237 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1213 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 ESE IJAMSVILLE        39.35N  77.29W
09/08/2011                   FREDERICK          MD   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            STATE ROUTE 80 FLOODED AND CLOSED WEST OF ED MCCLAIN
            ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1101845

JE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
124 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0119 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 W SEVEN CORNERS       38.87N  77.17W
09/08/2011                   FAIRFAX            VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER RESCUE AT HIGHWAY 50 AND ANNANDALE ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1101846

LISTEMAA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
125 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0934 PM     TORNADO          1 ENE WICOMICO          38.42N  76.86W
09/07/2011                   CHARLES            MD   PUBLIC

            TORNADO DOWNED A 6 FT DIAMETER TREE AT INTERSECTION OF
            ROUTE 234 AND TRINITY CHURCH ROAD. SHINGLE AND SIDING
            DAMAGE TO A HOME WITH CHIMNEY BLOWN OFF. SEVERAL TREES
            DAMAGED. SHED DESTROYED. EF-0. MAX WIND 80 MPH.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1101847

STRONG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
129 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0934 PM     TORNADO          1 ENE WICOMICO          38.42N  76.86W
09/07/2011                   CHARLES            MD   PUBLIC

            TORNADO DOWNED TREES AT INTERSECTION OF ROUTE 234 AND
            TRINITY CHURCH ROAD. SHINGLE AND SIDING DAMAGE TO A HOME
            WITH CHIMNEY BLOWN OFF. SEVERAL TREES DAMAGED. SHED
            DESTROYED. EF-0. MAX WIND 80 MPH.

&&

CORRECTED REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER LWX1101847

STRONG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
135 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0127 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 WSW WEST MCLEAN       38.93N  77.20W
09/08/2011                   FAIRFAX            VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SWIFT WATER RESCUE AT RT 123 AND THE DULLES TOLL ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1101848

LISTEMAA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
136 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 PM     FLASH FLOOD      DAMASCUS                39.28N  77.20W
09/08/2011                   MONTGOMERY         MD   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            ROUTES 108 AND 109 NEAR DAMASCUS COMPLETELY CLOSED DUE
            TO FLASH FLOODING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1101849

JE