Alert archive / Virginia / Flash Flood Warnings in 2011

Flash Flood Warning 150, NWS Baltimore/Washington

September 8, 20116 counties in Virginia; Charles County, Maryland

NWS Baltimore/Washington issued this flash flood warning at Sep 8, 2011, 12:23 PM EDT for 6 counties in Virginia; Charles County, Maryland. It was in force for 11 hr. 24 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Sep 8, 2011, 12:23 PM EDT (16:23 UTC)
Expired
Sep 8, 2011, 11:15 PM EDT
In force
11 hr
Issued by
NWS Baltimore/Washington
Area
Storm-based polygon
Emergency
Flash flood emergency
Flood severity
None

Counties Charles County, MD, Arlington County, VA, City of Alexandria, VA, City of Fairfax, VA, City of Falls Church, VA, Fairfax County, VA, Prince William County, VA

The radar

The Sterling radar (KLWX), 39 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:25 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Sep 8, 1:19 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD1 W Seven Corners, VAWATER RESCUE AT HIGHWAY 50 AND ANNANDALE ROAD
Sep 8, 1:27 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD1 Wsw West Mclean, VASWIFT WATER RESCUE AT RT 123 AND THE DULLES TOLL ROAD
Sep 8, 2:48 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD1 Nw Fairfax, VAWATER OVER THE RAOAD AT RT 123 NEAR ASSEMBLY DRIVE
Sep 8, 2:52 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD1 Ssw Fairfax, VAWATER OVER THE ROAD ALONG UNIVERSITY DRIVE NEAR GEORGE MASON
Sep 8, 2:55 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD2 Sw Wolf Trap, VASWIFT WATER BOAT RESCUE AT HUNTER MILL ROAD AND LAWYERS ROAD
Sep 8, 3:14 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD1 Wnw Fairfax, VACARS STUCK IN HIGH WATER BEING RESCUED AT RT 123 AND RT 50
Sep 8, 3:21 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD1 Wnw Wolf Trap, VAHUNTER MILL ROAD UNDERPASS AT DULLES TOLL ROAD IS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER
Sep 8, 3:39 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD1 Wnw Fairfax, VAMANHOLE COVERS BEING RAISED BY HIGH WATER AT US 50 AND RT 123
Sep 8, 3:42 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD2 S Great Falls, VASWIFT WATER RECUE AT WALKER ROAD AND WINDSWEPT DRIVE
Sep 8, 4:06 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD1 W Fairfax, VAHIGH WATER OVER THE ROAD AT US 50 AND OAK STREET
Sep 8, 4:07 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD1 Ne Fairfax, VAHIGH WATER OVER THE ROAD AT US 50 AND REBEL RUN
Sep 8, 4:09 PM EDTFLASH FLOODFairfax, VAHIGH WATER OVER THE ROAD AT US 50 AND EATON PLACE
Sep 8, 4:10 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD1 Ne Fairfax, VAHIGH WATER OVER THE ROAD AT US 50 AND DRAPER DRIVE
Sep 8, 4:11 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD2 Ene Fairfax, VAHIGH WATER OVER THE ROAD AT PICKETT ROAD AND OLD PICKETT ROAD
Sep 8, 4:13 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD1 Ene Fairfax, VAHIGH WATER OVER THE ROAD AT OLD LEE HIGHWAY AND RIDGE DRIVE
Sep 8, 4:14 PM EDTFLASH FLOODFairfax, VAWATER OVER THE ROAD AT UNIVERSITY DRIVE AND KENMORE DRIVE
Sep 8, 6:12 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD1 W Fort Belvoir, VACAR STUCK IN HIGH WATER OVER THE ROAD AT RT 1 AND FAIRFAX COUNTY PARKWAY
Sep 8, 6:30 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD1 Sse Lincolnia, VACAR IS STUCK AT ETHEL ROAD AND TURKEY COCK RUN STREAM
Sep 8, 7:14 PM EDTFLASH FLOODFalls Church, VASOUTH WEST STREET CLOSED BETWEEN POPLAR DRIVE AND KENNEDY STREET DUE TO HIGH WATER
Sep 8, 7:15 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD1 N Jefferson Manor, VASOUTHBOUND INTERSTATE 95 CLOSED DOWN BETWEEN TELEGRAPH ROAD AND THE EISENHOWER ROAD EXIT DUE TO HIGH WATER
Sep 8, 7:17 PM EDTFLASH FLOODFalls Church, VAMULTIPLE ROAD CLOSURES DUE TO HIGH WATER. SHERROW ROAD. AND SOUTH OAK STREET
Sep 8, 8:00 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD1 Ese Ironsides, MDPORT TOBACCO ROAD CLOSED AT WARDS RUN DUE TO FLASH FLOODING.
Sep 8, 8:56 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD1 Ese Newington, VANUMEROUNS WATER RESCUES ON CINDER BED RD
Sep 8, 9:10 PM EDTFLASH FLOODNanjemoy, MDMANY ROADS CLOSED THOUGHOUT THE COUNTY. SINK HOLES AS WELL.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 24 storm reports to this flash flood warning; the first came 56 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 12:00Z, 4.4 hours before the alert went out and 32 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2011-09-08Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 222 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2011-09-08The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 35 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
222 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-46 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
576 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
42 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
35 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
159 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.1
Supercell composite
0.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

268 
WGUS51 KLWX 081623
FFWLWX
MDC017-VAC013-059-153-510-600-610-081915-
/O.NEW.KLWX.FF.W.0150.110908T1623Z-110908T1915Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1223 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  CITY OF ALEXANDRIA IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...
  EASTERN CITY OF FAIRFAX IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...
  CITY OF FALLS CHURCH IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...
  ARLINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...
  SOUTHEASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...
  EASTERN FAIRFAX COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...
  WESTERN CHARLES COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND...

* UNTIL 315 PM EDT

* AT 1222 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR            
  INDICATED A DEVELPOING BAND OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EXTENDING ALONG 
  THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CAPITAL BELTWAY...SOUTHWARD THROUGH        
  NEWINGTON AND ACROSS THE POTOMAC INTO CHARLES COUNTY. RAINFALL UP  
  TO ONE INCH PER HOUR IS LIKELY IN THIS BAND...AND RAIN MAY         
  CONTINUE FOR MORE THAN AN HOUR. THIS WILL PROMOTE FLASH FLOODING.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY THE HEAVY RAIN
  INCLUDE ALEXANDRIA...ANNANDALE...ARLINGTON...BALLSTON...BURKE...
  DUMFRIES...FORT BELVOIR...FRANCONIA...GREAT FALLS...HYBLA VALLEY...
  LAKE BARCROFT...LAKE RIDGE...LINCOLNIA...LORTON...MCLEAN...
  MERRIFIELD...MONTCLAIR...NEWINGTON...OAKTON...ROSSLYN...THE I395
  AND I495 INTERCHANGE...SPRINGFIELD...THE I66 AND I495
  INTERCHANGE...TYSONS CORNER...VIENNA...WOLF TRAP...WOODBRIDGE...
  INDIAN HEAD...GROVETON...HUNTINGTON...MANTUA AND PIMMIT HILLS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3905 7731 3902 7725 3898 7724 3895 7714
      3888 7705 3874 7706 3871 7713 3862 7716
      3862 7713 3867 7710 3841 7709 3836 7721
      3839 7726 3856 7725 3853 7728 3856 7734

$$

JE
11 follow-up statements
035 
WGUS71 KLWX 081743
FFSLWX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
143 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

MDC017-VAC013-059-153-510-600-610-081915-
/O.CON.KLWX.FF.W.0150.000000T0000Z-110908T1915Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CITY OF ALEXANDRIA VA-CITY OF FAIRFAX VA-CITY OF FALLS CHURCH VA-
ARLINGTON VA-PRINCE WILLIAM VA-FAIRFAX VA-CHARLES MD-
143 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM EDT FOR
WESTERN CHARLES...EASTERN FAIRFAX...SOUTHEASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM...
ARLINGTON...CITY OF FALLS CHURCH...EASTERN CITY OF FAIRFAX AND CITY
OF ALEXANDRIA COUNTIES...

AT 140 PM EDT...TORRENTIAL RAIN CONTINUED MOVING ALONG A LINE FROM 
THE AMERICAN LEGION BRIDGE TO FAIRFAX CITY TO DALE CITY. RAINFALL 
OVER TWO INCHES HAS FALLEN IN THE LAST HOUR IN ANNANDALE AND 
BURKE...WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA. 
WATER RESCUES ARE REPORTED TO BE ONGOING IN MULTIPLE LOCATIONS NEAR 
FALLS CHURCH AND MCLEAN. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...AND THIS 
RAIN WILL FALL UPSTREAM OF THE PREVIOUS RAIN...WHICH WILL ADD TO 
STREAM FLOODING CONCERNS.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO PIMMIT
HILLS...MANTUA...HUNTINGTON...GROVETON...WOLF TRAP...VIENNA...TYSONS
CORNER...THE I66 AND I495 INTERCHANGE...SPRINGFIELD...THE I395 AND
I495 INTERCHANGE...OAKTON...NEWINGTON...MERRIFIELD...MCLEAN...
LORTON...LINCOLNIA...LAKE BARCROFT...HYBLA VALLEY...GREAT FALLS...
FRANCONIA...FORT BELVOIR...BURKE...BALLSTON...ARLINGTON...ANNANDALE
AND ALEXANDRIA

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3905 7731 3902 7725 3898 7724 3895 7714
      3888 7705 3874 7706 3871 7713 3862 7716
      3862 7713 3867 7710 3841 7709 3836 7721
      3839 7726 3856 7725 3853 7728 3856 7734

$$

JE
828 
WGUS71 KLWX 081845
FFSLWX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
245 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

MDC017-081853-
/O.CAN.KLWX.FF.W.0150.000000T0000Z-110908T1915Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHARLES MD-
245 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR WESTERN CHARLES
COUNTY...

RAIN HAS ENDED AND THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IS OVER. 
THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3905 7731 3902 7725 3898 7724 3895 7714
      3887 7705 3885 7705 3877 7706 3873 7715
      3869 7719 3854 7730 3856 7734

$$

VAC013-059-153-510-600-610-081915-
/O.CON.KLWX.FF.W.0150.000000T0000Z-110908T1915Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CITY OF ALEXANDRIA VA-CITY OF FAIRFAX VA-CITY OF FALLS CHURCH VA-
ARLINGTON VA-PRINCE WILLIAM VA-FAIRFAX VA-
245 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM EDT FOR
EASTERN FAIRFAX...SOUTHEASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM...ARLINGTON...CITY OF
FALLS CHURCH...EASTERN CITY OF FAIRFAX AND CITY OF ALEXANDRIA
COUNTIES...

AT 243 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
RAIN GRADUALLY MOVING WESTWARD OUT OF THE AREA. RAINFALL UP TO THREE 
INCHES IN JUST ONE HOUR HAS OCCURRED IN AND NEAR FAIRFAX CITY. 
NUMEROUS ROADS ARE REPORTED TO BE FLOODED AND RESCUES ARE REPORTED 
TO BE ONGOING IN MULTIPLE LOCATIONS.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO PIMMIT
HILLS...MANTUA...HUNTINGTON...GROVETON...WOLF TRAP...VIENNA...TYSONS
CORNER...THE I66 AND I495 INTERCHANGE...SPRINGFIELD...THE I395 AND
I495 INTERCHANGE...OAKTON...NEWINGTON...MERRIFIELD...MCLEAN...
LORTON...LINCOLNIA...LAKE BARCROFT...GREAT FALLS...FRANCONIA...
BURKE...BALLSTON...ARLINGTON...ANNANDALE AND ALEXANDRIA

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3905 7731 3902 7725 3898 7724 3895 7714
      3887 7705 3885 7705 3877 7706 3873 7715
      3869 7719 3854 7730 3856 7734

$$

JE
089 
WGUS71 KLWX 081856
FFSLWX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
256 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

VAC013-610-081905-
/O.CAN.KLWX.FF.W.0150.000000T0000Z-110908T1915Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CITY OF FALLS CHURCH VA-ARLINGTON VA-
256 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ARLINGTON AND CITY 
OF FALLS CHURCH COUNTIES...

THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING HAS ENDED IN ARLINGTON AND FALLS CHURCH.

LAT...LON 3902 7725 3898 7724 3895 7714 3893 7712
      3889 7720 3887 7720 3886 7716 3887 7714
      3885 7711 3884 7707 3877 7708 3869 7719
      3854 7730 3856 7734 3905 7731

$$

VAC059-153-510-600-081915-
/O.CON.KLWX.FF.W.0150.000000T0000Z-110908T1915Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CITY OF ALEXANDRIA VA-CITY OF FAIRFAX VA-PRINCE WILLIAM VA-FAIRFAX VA-
256 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM EDT FOR
EASTERN FAIRFAX...SOUTHEASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM...EASTERN CITY OF
FAIRFAX AND CITY OF ALEXANDRIA COUNTIES...

AT 252 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
MORE RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...AND A BAND OF EXTREMELY HEAVY 
RAIN MOVING NORTHWARD FROM VIENNA AND FAIRFAX TOWARD GREAT FALLS. 
NUMEROUS SWIFT WATER RESCUES AND FLOODED ROADS HAVE BEEN REPORTED.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO PIMMIT
HILLS...MANTUA...WOLF TRAP...VIENNA...TYSONS CORNER...THE I66 AND
I495 INTERCHANGE...OAKTON...MERRIFIELD...MCLEAN...LINCOLNIA...LAKE
BARCROFT...GREAT FALLS...ANNANDALE AND ALEXANDRIA

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3902 7725 3898 7724 3895 7714 3893 7712
      3889 7720 3887 7720 3886 7716 3887 7714
      3885 7711 3884 7707 3877 7708 3869 7719
      3854 7730 3856 7734 3905 7731

$$

JE
354 
WGUS51 KLWX 081859
FFWLWX
VAC059-153-510-600-082215-
/O.EXT.KLWX.FF.W.0150.000000T0000Z-110908T2215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
259 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  CITY OF ALEXANDRIA IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...
  EASTERN CITY OF FAIRFAX IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...
  SOUTHEASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...
  EASTERN FAIRFAX COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT

* AT 258 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED   
  HEAVY RAIN OF THREE INCHES IN JUST AN HOUR AND A HALF FROM FAIRFAX 
  TO VIENNA TO GREAT FALLS...AND RAIN OF ONE TO THREE INCHES OVER    
  MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE     
  DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA...AND IF THEY DEVELOP FURTHER...FLOOD      
  CONDITIONS COULD BE WORSENED OR PROLONGED. THEREFORE...THE FLASH   
  FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY THE HEAVY RAIN
  INCLUDE ALEXANDRIA...ANNANDALE...BURKE...DUMFRIES...FRANCONIA...
  GREAT FALLS...LAKE BARCROFT...LAKE RIDGE...LINCOLNIA...LORTON...
  MCLEAN...MERRIFIELD...MONTCLAIR...NEWINGTON...OAKTON...THE I395 AND
  I495 INTERCHANGE...SPRINGFIELD...THE I66 AND I495 INTERCHANGE...
  TYSONS CORNER...VIENNA...WOLF TRAP...WOODBRIDGE...GROVETON...MANTUA
  AND PIMMIT HILLS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3902 7725 3898 7724 3895 7714 3893 7712
      3889 7720 3887 7720 3886 7716 3887 7714
      3885 7711 3884 7707 3877 7708 3869 7719
      3854 7730 3856 7734 3905 7731

$$

JE
999 
WGUS71 KLWX 082057
FFSLWX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
457 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

VAC059-153-510-600-082215-
/O.CON.KLWX.FF.W.0150.000000T0000Z-110908T2215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CITY OF ALEXANDRIA VA-CITY OF FAIRFAX VA-PRINCE WILLIAM VA-FAIRFAX VA-
457 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EDT FOR
EASTERN FAIRFAX...SOUTHEASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM...EASTERN CITY OF
FAIRFAX AND CITY OF ALEXANDRIA COUNTIES...

AT 453 PM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED FLASH 
FLOODING OVER THE WARNED AREA. WHILE THE AREA HAD RECEIVED A 
TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE RAINFALL...MORE MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING JUST TO THE WEST OF WASHINGTON DC. THIS 
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL PROLONG THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING OVER THE 
WARNED AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF 
RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAIRFAX... 
VIENNA AND GREAT FALLS. AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE 
IN THE WARNED AREA.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS 
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 3902 7725 3898 7724 3895 7714 3893 7712
      3889 7720 3887 7720 3886 7716 3887 7714
      3885 7711 3884 7707 3877 7708 3869 7719
      3854 7730 3856 7734 3905 7731

$$

JRK
192 
WGUS51 KLWX 082135
FFWLWX
VAC059-153-510-600-090115-
/O.EXT.KLWX.FF.W.0150.000000T0000Z-110909T0115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
535 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  CITY OF ALEXANDRIA IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...
  EASTERN CITY OF FAIRFAX IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...
  SOUTHEASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...
  EASTERN FAIRFAX COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 915 PM EDT

* AT 529 PM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED FLASH 
FLOODING OVER THE WARNED AREA EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND 
OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN 
FAIRFAX AND ALEXANDRIA. THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL PROLONG AND LIKELY 
WORSEN THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING OVER THE WARNED AREA. THIS IS AN 
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION! 

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY THE HEAVY RAIN
  INCLUDE ALEXANDRIA...ANNANDALE...BURKE...DUMFRIES...FRANCONIA...
  GREAT FALLS...LAKE BARCROFT...LAKE RIDGE...LINCOLNIA...LORTON...
  MCLEAN...MERRIFIELD...MONTCLAIR...NEWINGTON...OAKTON...THE I395 AND
  I495 INTERCHANGE...SPRINGFIELD...THE I66 AND I495 INTERCHANGE...
  TYSONS CORNER...VIENNA...WOLF TRAP...WOODBRIDGE...GROVETON...MANTUA
  AND PIMMIT HILLS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN ADDITIONAL TWO TO THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 3902 7725 3898 7724 3895 7714 3893 7712
      3889 7720 3887 7720 3886 7716 3887 7714
      3885 7711 3884 7707 3877 7708 3869 7719
      3854 7730 3856 7734 3905 7731

$$

JRK
372 
WGUS71 KLWX 082217
FFSLWX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
617 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

VAC059-153-510-600-090115-
/O.CON.KLWX.FF.W.0150.000000T0000Z-110909T0115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CITY OF ALEXANDRIA VA-CITY OF FAIRFAX VA-PRINCE WILLIAM VA-FAIRFAX VA-
617 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM EDT FOR 
EASTERN FAIRFAX...SOUTHEASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTIES...AND EASTERN 
CITY OF FAIRFAX AND CITY OF ALEXANDRIA...

AT 600 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED TORRENTIAL 
RAINFALL REDEVELOPING OVER THE SAME AREA WHERE WIDESPREAD FLASH 
FLOODING HAD OCCURRED DURING THE AFTERNOON. TRAINED SPOTTERS AND 
LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT HAVE ALREADY REPORTED NEW INCIDENTS OF FLASH 
FLOODING IN EASTERN FAIRFAX COUNTY.

THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY. WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS 
OCCURRING.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO PIMMIT
HILLS...MANTUA...WOLF TRAP...VIENNA...TYSONS CORNER...THE I66 AND
I495 INTERCHANGE...OAKTON...MERRIFIELD...MCLEAN...LAKE BARCROFT AND
GREAT FALLS

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF 
RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAIRFAX...VIENNA AND 
GREAT FALLS. WITH THE SECOND ROUND OF RAIN...RAINFALL RATES OF THREE 
TO FOUR INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA THROUGH THE 
EARLY EVENING.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3902 7725 3898 7724 3895 7714 3893 7712
      3889 7720 3887 7720 3886 7716 3887 7714
      3885 7711 3884 7707 3877 7708 3869 7719
      3854 7730 3856 7734 3905 7731

$$

JRK
861 
WGUS71 KLWX 082358
FFSLWX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
758 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

VAC059-153-510-600-090115-
/O.CON.KLWX.FF.W.0150.000000T0000Z-110909T0115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CITY OF ALEXANDRIA VA-CITY OF FAIRFAX VA-PRINCE WILLIAM VA-FAIRFAX VA-
758 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM EDT FOR
EASTERN FAIRFAX...SOUTHEASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM...EASTERN CITY OF
FAIRFAX AND CITY OF ALEXANDRIA COUNTIES...

AT 753 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED TORRENTIAL 
RAINFALL CONTINUING OVER THE CITY OF ALEXANDRIA...EASTERN FAIRFAX 
AND SOUTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTIES. LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT HAS 
REPORTED WIDESPREAD ROAD CLOSURES FROM FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE 
WARNED AREA...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL BELTWAY CLOSED NEAR ALEXANDRIA 
BETWEEN THE EXITS OF EISENHOWER AVENUE AND TELEGRAPH ROAD.

THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY. WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS 
OCCURRING.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO PIMMIT
HILLS...MANTUA...WOLF TRAP...VIENNA...TYSONS CORNER...THE I66 AND
I495 INTERCHANGE...OAKTON...MERRIFIELD...MCLEAN...LAKE BARCROFT AND
GREAT FALLS

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW FIVE TO TEN INCHES OF 
RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL 
AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM ONE INCH ACROSS NORTHERN FAIRFAX COUNTY TO 
THREE INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN FAIRFAX AND PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTIES.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3902 7725 3898 7724 3895 7714 3893 7712
      3889 7720 3887 7720 3886 7716 3887 7714
      3885 7711 3884 7707 3877 7708 3869 7719
      3854 7730 3856 7734 3905 7731

$$

JRK
127 
WGUS51 KLWX 090106
FFWLWX
VAC059-153-510-600-090315-
/O.EXT.KLWX.FF.W.0150.000000T0000Z-110909T0315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
906 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  CITY OF ALEXANDRIA IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...
  EASTERN CITY OF FAIRFAX IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...
  SOUTHEASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...
  EASTERN FAIRFAX COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 1115 PM EDT

* AT 900 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THE 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT PRODUCED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE 
CITY OF ALEXANDRIA...EASTERN FAIRFAX AND SOUTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM 
COUNTIES ARE FINALLY STARTING TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO ONE-HALF INCH AND THE EARLIER HEAVY RAINFALL 
OF 6 TO 11 INCHES FROM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO 
RUNOFF. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING 
INCLUDE ALEXANDRIA...ANNANDALE...BURKE...DUMFRIES...FRANCONIA...  
GREAT FALLS...LORTON...SPRINGFIELD...WOODBRIDGE... GROVETON...MANTUA 
AND PIMMIT HILLS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT HAS REPORTED WIDESPREAD ROAD CLOSURES FROM 
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL 
BELTWAY AND THE GEORGE WASHINGTON PARKWAY CLOSED NEAR ALEXANDRIA.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3902 7725 3898 7724 3895 7714 3893 7712
      3889 7720 3887 7720 3886 7716 3887 7714
      3885 7711 3884 7707 3877 7708 3869 7719
      3854 7730 3856 7734 3905 7731

$$

JRK
775 
WGUS71 KLWX 090227
FFSLWX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1027 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

VAC600-090232-
/O.CAN.KLWX.FF.W.0150.000000T0000Z-110909T0315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CITY OF FAIRFAX VA-
1027 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR EASTERN CITY OF
FAIRFAX COUNTY...

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CITY OF FAIFAX HAS BEEN REPLACED BY 
A FLOOD WARNING THROUGH 145 AM EDT.  THE RAPID RISES OF CREEKS AND 
STREAMS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED.


LAT...LON 3877 7708 3869 7719 3854 7730 3856 7734
      3880 7730 3886 7713 3885 7711 3884 7707

$$

VAC059-153-510-090315-
/O.CON.KLWX.FF.W.0150.000000T0000Z-110909T0315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CITY OF ALEXANDRIA VA-PRINCE WILLIAM VA-FAIRFAX VA-
1027 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN FAIRFAX...SOUTHEASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM AND CITY OF
ALEXANDRIA COUNTIES...

AT 1018 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL 
ALONG THE POTOMAC RIVER.  LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS NUMEROUS 
ROADS CLOSED ACROSS THE AREA.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SPRINGFIELD...THE I395 AND I495 INTERCHANGE...LINCOLNIA...LAKE
BARCROFT...BURKE AND ALEXANDRIA

FLASH FLOOD PRONE AREAS WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
  HOLMES RUN BELOW LAKE BARCROFT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES...
HOLMES RUN...LITTLE HUNTING CREEK...NEABSCO CREEK...OCCOQUAN RIVER...
QUANTICO CREEK...POWELLS CREEK...RABBIT BRANCH...SIDEBURN BRANCH...
FOUR MILE RUN...MARUMSCO CREEK...GILES RUN...MIDDLE RUN...SOUTH
RUN...ACCOTINK CREEK...LONG BRANCH...TRIPPS RUN...BACKLICK RUN...
INDIAN RUN...PIKE BRANCH...BARNYARD RUN AND DOGUE CREEK.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

&&

LAT...LON 3877 7708 3869 7719 3854 7730 3856 7734
      3880 7730 3886 7713 3885 7711 3884 7707

$$

SBK
462 
WGUS71 KLWX 090308
FFSLWX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1108 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

VAC059-153-510-090319-
/O.EXP.KLWX.FF.W.0150.000000T0000Z-110909T0315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CITY OF ALEXANDRIA VA-PRINCE WILLIAM VA-FAIRFAX VA-
1108 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1115 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN FAIRFAX...SOUTHEASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM AND CITY OF
ALEXANDRIA COUNTIES...

LAT...LON 3877 7708 3869 7719 3854 7730 3856 7734
      3880 7730 3886 7713 3885 7711 3884 7707

$$

SBK

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Sep 8, 11:59 AM EDT, 24 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 8, 11:59 AM EDT, 24 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1159 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE INTERACTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND LOW PRESSURE
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A DEEP
FEED OF MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THERE WAS
ALSO A LINGERING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
ONGOING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDDAY ACROSS THE BULK OF THE WASHINGTON-BALTIMORE METRO AREA
WHILE AREAS WEST OF THERE GENERALLY REMAIN DRY BUT WITH SOME FOG
AND/OR DRIZZLE.

EXPECT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE AXIS MAY SHIFT A LITTLE MORE TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST AND POPS REFLECT THIS EXPECTED CHANGE.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AS WELL /NOT TO MENTION LOW FFG/
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A THREAT.

SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT HAS LESSENED FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...HOWEVER WITH LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY NEAR THE BAY AND SOME
SHEAR...STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO IN ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS.

UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. EXPECT MORE
SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE CWA TONIGHT...AGAIN WITH A SLIGHTLY WESTWARD
SHIFT COMPARED TO WHAT/S ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPR LOW WL BE THE PRIMARY PLAYER FRI...PRODUCING AN UNSTBL
AMS. POPS WL BE LWR...AND PLACING A HIER EMPHASIS ON TSRA VS HVY
RAIN. AXIS WL CONT TO BECOME MORE W-E BTWN KATIA AND FORMER LEE.
THAT/LL LEAD TO HIER POPS /LKLY/ ACRS NRN MD...AND DROPPING DOWN
TO CHC/SCHC OVNGT.

THERE/S A WIDE SPREAD IN TEMP GDNC...WHICH WL DEPEND PRTLY ON
CLDCVR. PAST CPL DAYS...ERRING COLDER HAS BEEN PREFERRED. SINCE
XPCTG THE START FO THE DAY TO BE SHROUDED BY LOW CLDS...HV OPTED
TO STAY COLD TIL TREND PROVES OTRW. ACKNOWLEDGE THAT ENUF DRYING
MAY WORK IN TO BURST THRU THE LOW DECK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PERSISTENT CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL CAUSE PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE ENTRAINING MOIST AIR FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC ACROSS THE CWA. THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...THERE ARE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EACH DAY.
HOWEVER...BY SUNDAY CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS ALONG WITH THE GRADUAL
ZONAL ELONGATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHICH WILL SHIFT FLOW
LARGELY TO THE WEST...WILL HELP TO LOWER PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE WEAKENING STACKED LOW
MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK CREATING THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION. DUE TO THIS...SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
DECREASING CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO
ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
AS THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN BEGINS TO TRANSITION...DRIER
CONTINENTAL AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE CWA HELPING TO LOWER RH VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE A COMBINATION OF LOW CIGS AND LOW VSBYS THIS MORNING. MOST
TERMINALS ARE IN IFR OR LIFR AT 13Z. GIVEN AN EASTERLY FLOW THIS
IS GOING TO BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE. MAY SEE IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT
DCA/BWI BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH MORE SHOWERS THEY COULD
PRODUCE IFR VSBYS AT TIMES EVEN IF CIGS DO COME UP FOR A TIME. BUT
LIKE YESTERDAY...ANY IMPROVEMENT ABOVE IFR WILL BE BRIEF AND
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DEGRADE AGAIN THIS EVENING. THIS WOULD OCCUR
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS BUT OF COURSE THERE WILL ALSO SHOWERS
AROUND BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK COULD OCCASIONALLY LOWER
VISIBILITIES AT AREA TERMINALS. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO RISE AS
DRIER AIR BECOMES ENTRAINED ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.MARINE...
WNDS AOB 10 KT ATTM...AND XPCT ELY FLOW AT SIMLR SPDS THRU THE DAY
AND INTO THE NGT. NO ADVYS ANTICIPATED. BUT...TSRA CAN BE XPCTD...
SPCLY IN THE MIDDAY HRS...CONTG INTO TNGT.

DECREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND. PRIMARILY LIGHT WINDS INCREASING TO ABOUT 10KT IN THE
AFTERNOONS SHOULD LIMIT WAVES TO 2 FT OR LESS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALTHOUGH WE ARE SEEING A BADLY-NEEDED LULL IN THE HEAVY PRECIP OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND...EXTREME RAINFALL FROM THE PAST 24
HOURS /AND REALLY PAST FIVE DAYS/ HAS DONE PLENTY OF DAMAGE ALREADY.
NUMEROUS ROADS ARE STILL CLOSED WITH STREAMS AND RIVERS OUT OF THEIR
BANKS...AND EVEN THOUGH THE RAIN HAS SLACKENED...SOME OF THESE
RIVERS ACTUALLY CONTINUE TO RISE FROM RUNOFF AND UPSTREAM FLOW.
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THIS. EXTENSION OF THESE
WARNINGS...AND ISSUANCE OF ADDITIONAL ONES...ARE BOTH PROBABLY
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RAIN TODAY HAS SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE WEST...INTO AREAS THAT
HAVE GENERALLY SEEN LITTLE RAIN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. WE WILL STILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR TRAINING BANDS THAT COULD DROP A LOT OF RAINFALL.

IT IS WORTH STRESSING THAT NONE OF THESE STREAMS WILL AFFECT THE
POTOMAC...SHENANDOAH...OR RAPPAHANNOCK RIVERS. THERE IS A CREST OF
WATER MOVING DOWN THE POTOMAC...WITH SOME LOCAL INFLOW COMING FROM
THE MONOCACY...SENECA CREEK...AND ROCK CREEK. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED
TO CAUSE FLOODING...THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR INDUNDATION OF
LOW WATER SPOTS AT EDWARDS FERRY...AND WHITES FERRY HAS BEEN
REPORTED CLOSED...WHICH OCCURS WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

THE SMALL FRESHWATER PUSH IS ALSO UNLIKELY TO CREATE SIGNIFICANT
ISSUES ON THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC...BUT THERE ARE TIDAL-RELATED
CONCERNS. FOR MORE ON THAT SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD SECTION.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SUSTAINED E/SE FLOW WILL KEEP THE CURRENT 1 TO 2 FT ANOMALY ALONG
THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE AND TIDAL POTOMAC THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.  THIS WILL SUSTAIN THE ADVISORY/MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TIDE CYCLES.
FOR THE TIDE TO SURPASS THE MODERATE THRESHOLD WHICH WOULD INVOKE A
WARNING...THERE WOULD HAVE TO BE 2.5 TO 3.0 ANOMALY.  NEITHER THE
MDL EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE OR CBOFS GUIDANCE IS GIVING THAT TYPE
OF ANOMALY AT ANY OF OUR TIDAL FORECAST LOCATIONS.

WINDS WILL STAY E/SE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT KEEPING THE
ANOMALY IN THE BAY AND POTOMAC...SO IT IS LIKELY THAT THE COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY WILL HAVE TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND THURSDAY EVENING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR DCZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MDZ003>007-009>011-
     013-014.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ007-
     011-013-014-016>018.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ016>018.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ042-052>054.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ052>055-057.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ051>053.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...BPP/HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...CJL
AVIATION...BPP/HTS/CJL
MARINE...HTS/CJL
HYDROLOGY...JE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JL
Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 8, 10:09 AM EDT, 2 hours 14 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1009 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ006-007-011-013-014-016>018-VAZ052>057-
091000-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR-
CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY-
CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER-
PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD-
TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-
CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
1009 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 2AM FOR METRO
WASHINGTON AND ANNAPOLIS NORTHWARD. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
FLOOD WATCH MESSAGE FOR DETAILS.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANT BE RULED OUT IN
ANY THUNDERSTORM.

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER THROUGH 8PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER POTOMAC RIVER
AND ITS TRIBUTARIES THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED. PLEASE RELAY REPORTS OF
FLOODING AND HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

MDZ003>005-009-010-501-502-VAZ025>031-036>040-042-050-051-501>504-
WVZ050>053-055-501>506-091000-
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA-
ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-
ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND-
EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-
1009 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED AND EXPANDED WESTWARD THROUGH
2AM FOR THE WASHINGTON DC AND BALTIMORE SUBURBS WEST TO MARTINSBURG
AND HAGERSTOWN. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH MESSAGE FOR
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED. PLEASE RELAY REPORTS OF
FLOODING AND HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Sep 8, 6:39 AM EDT, 5 hours 44 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
639 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SW KETTERING          38.88N  76.80W
09/08/2011                   PRINCE GEORGES     MD   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            ROUTE 202 WAS CLOSED AT WHITE HOUSE ROAD DUE TO FLASH
            FLOODING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1101843

SBK
Local storm report, Sep 8, 8:08 AM EDT, 4 hours 15 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
808 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 ESE SCARBORO          39.64N  76.27W
09/08/2011                   HARFORD            MD   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            ROUTE 1 SOUTH FLOODED AND CLOSED AT PRIESTFORD ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1101844

JE

The office that day

Everything else NWS Baltimore/Washington issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 7, 8:29 PM EDTSpecial Marine WarningLWX66 min
Sep 7, 8:32 PM EDTSpecial Marine WarningLWX61 min
Sep 7, 8:42 PM EDTTornado WarningLWXKing George33 min
Sep 7, 9:09 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningLWXArlington, Fairfax, King George, City of Alexandria, City of Falls Church3 hr
Sep 8, 12:14 AM EDTSpecial Marine WarningLWX61 min
Sep 8, 12:54 AM EDTSpecial Marine WarningLWX96 min
Sep 8, 1:42 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementLWXArlington, City of Alexandria, City of Falls Church93 min
Sep 8, 3:55 AM EDTAreal Flood WarningLWXArlington, Fairfax, City of Alexandria, City of Falls Church14 hr
Sep 8, 2:31 PM EDTFlash Flood Warning EmergencyLWXFairfax, Loudoun, Prince William, City of Fairfax, City of Manassas, City of Manassas Park5 hr
Sep 8, 3:23 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementLWXFairfax, Prince William, City of Fairfax, City of Manassas, City of Manassas Park97 min
Sep 8, 5:17 PM EDTSpecial Marine WarningLWX88 min
Sep 8, 5:27 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningLWXArlington, City of Falls Church3 hr
Sep 8, 5:52 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningLWXKing George, Stafford8 hr
Sep 8, 7:01 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningLWXCulpeper, Fairfax, Fauquier, Loudoun, Prince William, Spotsylvania and 5 more4 hr
Sep 8, 7:17 PM EDTSpecial Marine WarningLWX58 min
Sep 8, 7:19 PM EDTSpecial Marine WarningLWX41 min
Sep 7, 8:34 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementLWXCalvert26 min
Sep 7, 9:22 PM EDTTornado WarningLWXCharles, Saint Mary's23 min
Sep 7, 9:46 PM EDTTornado WarningLWXCharles, Prince George's, Saint Mary's29 min
Sep 7, 10:03 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningLWXAnne Arundel, Baltimore, Carroll, Harford, Howard, Montgomery and 2 more6 hr
Sep 7, 10:25 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementLWXPrince George's45 min
Sep 7, 10:26 PM EDTFlash Flood Warning EmergencyLWXAnne Arundel, Baltimore, Calvert, Charles, Prince George's, Saint Mary's6 hr
Sep 7, 11:26 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementLWXAnne Arundel, City of Baltimore49 min
Sep 7, 11:28 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementLWXCalvert47 min
Sep 7, 11:37 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningLWXCarroll, Frederick3 hr
Sep 7, 11:47 PM EDTTornado WarningLWXAnne Arundel, Calvert28 min
Sep 8, 12:13 AM EDTTornado WarningLWXAnne Arundel16 min
Sep 8, 12:45 AM EDTFlash Flood Warning EmergencyLWXAnne Arundel, Calvert, Charles, Prince George's, Saint Mary's4 hr
Sep 8, 1:17 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningLWXAnne Arundel, Calvert, Saint Mary's104 min
Sep 8, 4:02 AM EDTAreal Flood WarningLWXAnne Arundel, Baltimore, Carroll, Harford, Howard, Montgomery and 2 more20 hr
Sep 8, 4:35 AM EDTAreal Flood WarningLWXAnne Arundel, Calvert, Charles, Prince George's, Saint Mary's40 hr
Sep 8, 5:54 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningLWXAnne Arundel, Baltimore, Charles, Harford, Howard, Prince George's and 1 more3 hr
Sep 8, 7:26 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningLWXBaltimore, Harford3 hr
Sep 8, 8:47 AM EDTRiver Flood WatchLWXFrederick5 hr
Sep 8, 9:41 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningLWXMontgomery32 hr
Sep 8, 10:28 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningLWXFrederick, Montgomery9 hr
Sep 8, 1:00 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningLWXMontgomery6 hr
Sep 8, 1:55 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningLWXFrederick22 hr
Sep 8, 4:41 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningLWXCharles, Prince George's, Saint Mary's4 hr
Sep 8, 5:15 PM EDTTornado WarningLWXCharles, Saint Mary's30 min
Sep 8, 6:25 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningLWXCarroll, Frederick, Howard74 min
Sep 8, 7:30 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementLWXCharles45 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Virginia, 2011Flash Flood Warnings in Maryland, 2011Every flash flood warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.