Alert archive / Kentucky / Special Weather Statements in 2011

Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

August 19, 2011Cumberland County, Kentucky

NWS Louisville, KY issued this special weather statement at Aug 19, 2011, 3:48 PM CDT for Cumberland County, Kentucky. It was in force for 27 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Aug 19, 2011, 3:48 PM CDT (20:48 UTC)
Expired: Aug 19, 2011, 4:15 PM CDT
In force: 27 min
Issued by: NWS Louisville, KY

County Cumberland County, KY

The radar

The Nashville radar (KOHX), 115 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 125 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 610 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -89 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 956 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 22 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 40 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 69 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Aug 19, 2:09 PM CDT, 1 hour 39 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 19, 2:09 PM CDT, 1 hour 39 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
309 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...

MAIN SHORTWAVE CROSSING REGION AT THIS TIME. CLOUD COVER STUCK
AROUND A BIT LONGER THAN EXPECTED...SO SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE
STAYED COOLER THAN FORECAST. STILL A LINE OF SCATTERED ELEVATED
STORMS HAVE FORMED AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AXIS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
AIRMASS DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST
AREA...WHERE SUNSHINE HAS BEEN MOST ABUNDANT SO FAR TODAY. SECOND
SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...IS STILL ON TRACK TO
COME THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT
AHEAD OF THIS LINE...BUT HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE ISOLATED/LOW-END
SCATTERED RANGE. GIVEN THAT IT IS NOT DEVELOPING ANY STRONG
CONVECTION NOW IN PEAK-HEATED AIRMASS...THINK CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS LIMITED ACROSS OUR REGION. BY MIDNIGHT THAT SHORTWAVE
WILL KICK OUT AND AREA WILL BE LEFT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING THAT
SHOULD PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES TILL SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
EVEN THAT LOOKS TO BE LIMITED AS THE BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS DO
NOT COME IN UNTIL THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT/S...MAYBE A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER WITH THE HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR IN REGION. WITH
LACK OF CONVECTION FOR TOMORROW WILL GO BACK UP TO AROUND 90 DEGREES
FOR HIGHS SATURDAY. HAVE GONE UNDER GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF EXPECTED
MID/UPPER CLOUD COVER MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY)...

SATURDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD SEE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH AMPLE SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG IT. SPC HAS AREAS TO OUR
NW IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WHICH SEEMS APPROPRIATE.
HOWEVER BY THE TIME THE FRONT REACHES OUR CWA...IT MAY BE SUNDAY
MORNING AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THE TIMING
OVER OUR NWRN PORTION OF THE CWA IS NOT IDEAL...BUT THE REST OF OUR
CWA MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. NAM/GFS
SOUNDINGS FORECAST ROUGHLY 1200 J OF CAPE WITH WEAK UNI-DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF A COLD POOL CAN ORGANIZE...COULD HAVE
SOME ORGANIZED BOWING SEGMENTS AND STRONG-SEVERE WIND GUSTS. WILL
BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING NW AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON
SE...WITH POPS ENDING FROM NW TO SE SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SLIDE IN BEHIND THE FRONT KEEPING DRY
CONDITIONS MONDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY. THEN AN ACTIVE NW FLOW
PATTERN SHOULD DOMINATE OUR EXTENDED FORECAST...WITH DECENT
TROUGHING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND AFFECTING THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH SIMILAR
RESULTS FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES/EURO/GEM (ALTHO TIMING OFF A BIT)
WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WITH THE
BEST PRECIP CHANCES OCCURRING ON WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

CONCERNING TEMPS...WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMALS BUT
MAY HAVE TO TWEAK THESE TEMPS DOWN FOR SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY
DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND/OR PRECIP. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
60S MOST NIGHTS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP IN THE LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

CLOUD COVER FROM EARLIER STORM SYSTEM OVER MO/SO. IL HAS OVERSPREAD
KSDF AND IS JUST NOW GETTING TO KLEX. THESE CLOUDS ARE KEEPING THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE STABLE. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS
SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A STORM OR TWO INTO THE REGION WITH THE MOST
HEATING...BUT COVERAGE VERY LIMITED AT THIS POINT. WITH CLOUDS NOT
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE...HAVE REDUCED STORMS IN TAF TO JUST CB
GROUPS. HAVE TRIED TO TIME IT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...WITH A ROUND
NOW FOR KBWG...GIVEN BETTER HEATING DOWN THERE...AND A BRIEF WINDOW
FOR KLEX GIVEN THAT THE LINE MAY YET DEVELOP SOMETHING OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. MAY SEE SOME STORMS STILL DEVELOP OVER KSDF AND
KLEX LATE THIS AFTN TO EVENING DEPENDING ON NEXT DISTURBANCE AND HOW
MUCH HEATING CAN STILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.  NEXT UP WILL BE SOME
VSBY CONCERNS OVERNIGHT AND HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS FORECAST OF MVFR VSBY
AT KBWG AND KLEX AROUND DAYBREAK.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM........RJS
LONG TERM.........AL
AVIATION..........RJS

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 19, 2:24 PM CDT, 1 hour 24 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
324 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-201930-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
324 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011 /224 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS
ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL CONTAIN BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS MAY OCCUR...WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.
MOST STORMS HOWEVER SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY AND
BRING MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT BUT MAY BE NEEDED
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

RJS/AL

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Aug 19, 12:40 PM CDT, 3 hours 8 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
140 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

KYZ064-065-191815-
GREEN-TAYLOR-
1240 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...MODERATE RAIN...AND
40 MPH WINDS...

AT 1235 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTH OF GREENSBURG...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...MODERATE RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES OF AROUND
ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN THREE
MILES...AND GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  GREENSBURG...
  PITMAN...
  SUMMERSVILLE AND BENGAL...
  SWEENEYVILLE...
  BLACK GNAT AND WRIGHTS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3731 8533 3720 8553 3740 8562 3746 8551
TIME...MOT...LOC 1740Z 332DEG 14KT 3737 8553

RS

Special weather statement, Aug 19, 2:43 PM CDT, 1 hour 5 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
343 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

KYZ073>075-192015-
ALLEN-BARREN-MONROE-
243 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND 40
MPH WINDS...

AT 239 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES EAST OF SCOTTSVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT
15 MPH.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES OF AROUND ONE
INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE MILE...AND GUSTY
WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  FOUNTAIN RUN...
  LAMB...
  AKERSVILLE...
  FLIPPIN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING. EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON LOCAL
ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF
ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.

&&

LAT...LON 3668 8608 3679 8604 3678 8584 3662 8588
      3662 8592
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 289DEG 11KT 3671 8600

SCHOETTMER

Special weather statement, Aug 19, 3:20 PM CDT, 28 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
420 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

KYZ075-081-192045-
CUMBERLAND-MONROE-
320 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND 40 MPH WINDS...

AT 317 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MONROE AND
CUMBERLAND COUNTIES...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES
OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  TOMPKINSVILLE...
  OTIA...
  BLYTHE...
  VERNON AND RAYDURE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING. EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON LOCAL
ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF
ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.

&&

LAT...LON 3662 8588 3671 8588 3670 8530 3662 8530
      3661 8553
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 266DEG 12KT 3665 8564

SCHOETTMER

Special weather statement, Aug 19, 3:48 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
448 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

KYZ075-081-082-192115-
CLINTON-CUMBERLAND-MONROE-
348 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND 40
MPH WINDS...

AT 345 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTH OF CELINA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
15 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES
OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 45 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  BURKESVILLE...
  STALCUP AND CLOYDS LANDING...
  LITTRELL AND ARAT...
  ELLINGTON AND LESLIE...
  TANBARK AND KETTLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS...AND AVOID USING THE
TELEPHONE UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING. EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON LOCAL
ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF
ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.

&&

LAT...LON 3670 8558 3689 8542 3680 8525 3662 8514
      3661 8551
TIME...MOT...LOC 2048Z 234DEG 14KT 3668 8547

SCHOETTMER

The office that day

Everything else NWS Louisville, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 18, 7:01 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Grayson	29 min
Aug 18, 7:07 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Breckinridge	23 min
Aug 18, 7:09 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	LMK	Grayson	111 min
Aug 18, 7:15 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Henry	30 min
Aug 18, 7:34 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Owen	26 min
Aug 18, 7:42 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Franklin, Henry, Shelby	33 min
Aug 18, 8:18 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Anderson	27 min
Aug 18, 8:26 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Henry	34 min
Aug 18, 8:31 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	LMK	Henry	119 min
Aug 18, 9:38 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Trimble	22 min
Aug 18, 10:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Harrison	30 min
Aug 18, 10:14 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	LMK	Henry	104 min
Aug 18, 10:16 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Bourbon	29 min
Aug 18, 10:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Harrison	23 min
Aug 18, 10:24 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Franklin	36 min
Aug 18, 10:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Bourbon, Nicholas	37 min
Aug 18, 10:50 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Nicholas	25 min
Aug 18, 11:21 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Franklin	24 min
Aug 19, 12:00 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Madison	30 min
Aug 19, 12:40 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Green	35 min
Aug 19, 3:20 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Monroe	25 min
Aug 19, 4:06 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Adair, Clinton, Cumberland, Russell	24 min
Aug 19, 4:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Clinton, Cumberland, Russell	32 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Kentucky, 2011 Every special weather statement in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.