Severe Thunderstorm Warning 425, NWS Louisville, KY

940 
WWUS53 KLMK 192151
SVSLMK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
551 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

KYC057-192201-
/O.CAN.KLMK.SV.W.0425.000000T0000Z-110819T2200Z/
CUMBERLAND KY-
451 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN CUMBERLAND COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL
FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3673 8509 3696 8519 3703 8510 3712 8498
      3699 8483 3695 8490 3696 8494 3692 8495
      3686 8506 3683 8506 3680 8501 3676 8500
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 242DEG 24KT 3688 8509

$$

KYC053-207-192200-
/O.CON.KLMK.SV.W.0425.000000T0000Z-110819T2200Z/
RUSSELL KY-CLINTON KY-
451 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN CLINTON AND RUSSELL COUNTIES...

AT 445 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LONG BOTTOM...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  JAMESTOWN...
  KARLUS AND ONO...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER IN A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. THIS STORM HAS DEVELOPED VERY
QUICKLY...AND WILL PRODUCE A BURST OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN LOW SPOTS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL
FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3673 8509 3696 8519 3703 8510 3712 8498
      3699 8483 3695 8490 3696 8494 3692 8495
      3686 8506 3683 8506 3680 8501 3676 8500
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 242DEG 24KT 3688 8509
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <.50IN

$$

SCHOETTMER

290 
WWUS53 KLMK 192157
SVSLMK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
457 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

KYC053-207-192207-
/O.EXP.KLMK.SV.W.0425.000000T0000Z-110819T2200Z/
RUSSELL KY-CLINTON KY-
457 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN CLINTON AND
RUSSELL COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 500 PM CDT...

THE STORMS THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED AND ARE NO LONGER
SEVERE. HOWEVER STRONG STORMS REMAIN IN THE AREA. THESE ARE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL
FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3673 8509 3696 8519 3703 8510 3712 8498
      3699 8483 3695 8490 3696 8494 3692 8495
      3686 8506 3683 8506 3680 8501 3676 8500
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 242DEG 24KT 3690 8505

$$

SCHOETTMER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
309 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...

MAIN SHORTWAVE CROSSING REGION AT THIS TIME. CLOUD COVER STUCK
AROUND A BIT LONGER THAN EXPECTED...SO SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE
STAYED COOLER THAN FORECAST. STILL A LINE OF SCATTERED ELEVATED
STORMS HAVE FORMED AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AXIS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
AIRMASS DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST
AREA...WHERE SUNSHINE HAS BEEN MOST ABUNDANT SO FAR TODAY. SECOND
SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...IS STILL ON TRACK TO
COME THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT
AHEAD OF THIS LINE...BUT HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE ISOLATED/LOW-END
SCATTERED RANGE. GIVEN THAT IT IS NOT DEVELOPING ANY STRONG
CONVECTION NOW IN PEAK-HEATED AIRMASS...THINK CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS LIMITED ACROSS OUR REGION. BY MIDNIGHT THAT SHORTWAVE
WILL KICK OUT AND AREA WILL BE LEFT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING THAT
SHOULD PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES TILL SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
EVEN THAT LOOKS TO BE LIMITED AS THE BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS DO
NOT COME IN UNTIL THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT/S...MAYBE A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER WITH THE HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR IN REGION. WITH
LACK OF CONVECTION FOR TOMORROW WILL GO BACK UP TO AROUND 90 DEGREES
FOR HIGHS SATURDAY. HAVE GONE UNDER GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF EXPECTED
MID/UPPER CLOUD COVER MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY)...

SATURDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD SEE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH AMPLE SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG IT. SPC HAS AREAS TO OUR
NW IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WHICH SEEMS APPROPRIATE.
HOWEVER BY THE TIME THE FRONT REACHES OUR CWA...IT MAY BE SUNDAY
MORNING AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THE TIMING
OVER OUR NWRN PORTION OF THE CWA IS NOT IDEAL...BUT THE REST OF OUR
CWA MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. NAM/GFS
SOUNDINGS FORECAST ROUGHLY 1200 J OF CAPE WITH WEAK UNI-DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF A COLD POOL CAN ORGANIZE...COULD HAVE
SOME ORGANIZED BOWING SEGMENTS AND STRONG-SEVERE WIND GUSTS. WILL
BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING NW AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON
SE...WITH POPS ENDING FROM NW TO SE SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SLIDE IN BEHIND THE FRONT KEEPING DRY
CONDITIONS MONDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY. THEN AN ACTIVE NW FLOW
PATTERN SHOULD DOMINATE OUR EXTENDED FORECAST...WITH DECENT
TROUGHING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND AFFECTING THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH SIMILAR
RESULTS FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES/EURO/GEM (ALTHO TIMING OFF A BIT)
WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WITH THE
BEST PRECIP CHANCES OCCURRING ON WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

CONCERNING TEMPS...WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMALS BUT
MAY HAVE TO TWEAK THESE TEMPS DOWN FOR SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY
DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND/OR PRECIP. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
60S MOST NIGHTS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP IN THE LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

CLOUD COVER FROM EARLIER STORM SYSTEM OVER MO/SO. IL HAS OVERSPREAD
KSDF AND IS JUST NOW GETTING TO KLEX. THESE CLOUDS ARE KEEPING THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE STABLE. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS
SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A STORM OR TWO INTO THE REGION WITH THE MOST
HEATING...BUT COVERAGE VERY LIMITED AT THIS POINT. WITH CLOUDS NOT
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE...HAVE REDUCED STORMS IN TAF TO JUST CB
GROUPS. HAVE TRIED TO TIME IT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...WITH A ROUND
NOW FOR KBWG...GIVEN BETTER HEATING DOWN THERE...AND A BRIEF WINDOW
FOR KLEX GIVEN THAT THE LINE MAY YET DEVELOP SOMETHING OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. MAY SEE SOME STORMS STILL DEVELOP OVER KSDF AND
KLEX LATE THIS AFTN TO EVENING DEPENDING ON NEXT DISTURBANCE AND HOW
MUCH HEATING CAN STILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.  NEXT UP WILL BE SOME
VSBY CONCERNS OVERNIGHT AND HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS FORECAST OF MVFR VSBY
AT KBWG AND KLEX AROUND DAYBREAK.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM........RJS
LONG TERM.........AL
AVIATION..........RJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
324 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-201930-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
324 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011 /224 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS
ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL CONTAIN BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS MAY OCCUR...WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.
MOST STORMS HOWEVER SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY AND
BRING MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT BUT MAY BE NEEDED
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

RJS/AL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
140 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

KYZ064-065-191815-
GREEN-TAYLOR-
1240 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...MODERATE RAIN...AND
40 MPH WINDS...

AT 1235 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTH OF GREENSBURG...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...MODERATE RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES OF AROUND
ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN THREE
MILES...AND GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  GREENSBURG...
  PITMAN...
  SUMMERSVILLE AND BENGAL...
  SWEENEYVILLE...
  BLACK GNAT AND WRIGHTS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3731 8533 3720 8553 3740 8562 3746 8551
TIME...MOT...LOC 1740Z 332DEG 14KT 3737 8553

RS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
343 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

KYZ073>075-192015-
ALLEN-BARREN-MONROE-
243 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND 40
MPH WINDS...

AT 239 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES EAST OF SCOTTSVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT
15 MPH.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES OF AROUND ONE
INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE MILE...AND GUSTY
WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  FOUNTAIN RUN...
  LAMB...
  AKERSVILLE...
  FLIPPIN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING. EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON LOCAL
ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF
ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.

&&

LAT...LON 3668 8608 3679 8604 3678 8584 3662 8588
      3662 8592
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 289DEG 11KT 3671 8600

SCHOETTMER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
420 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

KYZ075-081-192045-
CUMBERLAND-MONROE-
320 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND 40 MPH WINDS...

AT 317 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MONROE AND
CUMBERLAND COUNTIES...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES
OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  TOMPKINSVILLE...
  OTIA...
  BLYTHE...
  VERNON AND RAYDURE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING. EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON LOCAL
ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF
ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.

&&

LAT...LON 3662 8588 3671 8588 3670 8530 3662 8530
      3661 8553
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 266DEG 12KT 3665 8564

SCHOETTMER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
448 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

KYZ075-081-082-192115-
CLINTON-CUMBERLAND-MONROE-
348 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND 40
MPH WINDS...

AT 345 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTH OF CELINA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
15 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES
OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 45 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  BURKESVILLE...
  STALCUP AND CLOYDS LANDING...
  LITTRELL AND ARAT...
  ELLINGTON AND LESLIE...
  TANBARK AND KETTLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS...AND AVOID USING THE
TELEPHONE UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING. EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON LOCAL
ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF
ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.

&&

LAT...LON 3670 8558 3689 8542 3680 8525 3662 8514
      3661 8551
TIME...MOT...LOC 2048Z 234DEG 14KT 3668 8547

SCHOETTMER