Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
302 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

MCS JUST TO OUR WEST AND NORTH THIS MORNING AS OF 645Z CONTINUES TO
INCH IT/S WAY CLOSER TO OUR FORECAST AREA.  THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT
SEEMS TO BE WEAKENING WITH UPSTREAM OBS ALONG THE ILLINOIS BORDER
ONLY GUSTING TO AROUND 40 TO 45 MPH.  OUTFLOW FROM THIS COMPLEX IS
RUNNING OUT AHEAD OF THE STORMS WHICH CONFIRMS THE WEAKER WINDS.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS COMPLEX THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS HOWEVER AS IT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA.  THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THIS MCS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.  HAVE UPPED
POPS TO 100 PERCENT OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL KY THIS
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STORMS.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE MIDWEST DOWN THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH TOWARD OUR AREA
TODAY.  FROPA SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS
OVER OUR AREA.  STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT AS
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES RIDE ALONG IT AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS REMAIN QUITE
LOW TODAY IN THE MID 80S.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT DAMAGING
MICROBURST TYPE WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS UNTIL THE
FRONT PASSES AND WE ENTER A MORE STABLE AIRMASS.  THEN ONLY GARDEN
VARIETY T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING CLOSE
TO THE EXITING BOUNDARY.

TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO CONVECTION OVER THE
AREA AND FROPA.  WILL GO FOR MID 80S TO LOW 90S FOR HIGHS TODAY.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY - FRIDAY)...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL IN THE WAKE OF THE COOL FRONT ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

WE WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS ENTERING INTO THE FORECAST
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO
NOSE IN FROM THE WEST. A SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL SCOOT ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY TUESDAY. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA COULD SEE SOME STORMS FROM THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR THIS TIME FRAME SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME FRIDAY DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL REMAIN DRY IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A BIT THROUGH THE MID AND LATTER
PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S BY MID WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

ALTHOUGH THE TAF SITES ARE RAIN FREE AT THE MOMENT...T-STORM
ACTIVITY REMAINS STRONG TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL
ZONE WITH MULTIPLE WAVES RIDING ALONG IT.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARD OUR REGION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.  THE 2Z HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE ONGOING MCS ACTIVITY
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND PROGS CONVECTION MAKING IT INTO THE TAF SITES
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING.  THEREFORE...HAVE UPGRADED
T-STORM CHANCES TO PREVAILING -TSRA FOR THE MORNING HOURS.  ALTHOUGH
HAVE LEFT VFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A T-STORM.  AFTER THE
MORNING COMPLEXES MOVE THROUGH...CONVECTIVE TIMING IS A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN.  HOWEVER WITH THE BOUNDARY STILL IN OUR AREA THROUGH THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS...T-STORMS STILL LOOK PROBABLE SO WILL
COVER WITH A VCTS AND REFINE THE TIMING IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES.
CONVECTION SHOULD CEASE TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH
AWAY FROM OUR REGION.

LIGHT MVFR BR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BWG THIS MORNING.

AS FOR WINDS...THEY WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND THEN SW AFTER SUNRISE.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS SWITCHING
WINDS TO THE WEST WITH SPEEDS PEAKING IN THE 10 TO 12 KT RANGE WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.  TONIGHT EXPECT WINDS TO GO MORE NW.  WINDS
WILL LIKELY VARY FROM THESE GENERAL DIRECTIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
DUE TO T-STORMS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE REGION.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM........AMS
LONG TERM.........EER
AVIATION..........AMS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
330 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-120730-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
330 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011 /230 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.

STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY PUSHING SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MAINLY
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES CROSS THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE THURSDAY AS A COOL FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL TODAY.

AMS/EER

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