Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
309 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...

CURRENTLY A SFC LOW IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL IN...WHICH WAS THE
SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR WEATHER LAST NIGHT. THE SYSTEM/S COLD
FRONT JUST PASSED THROUGH EVANSVILLE...AND WILL DRAG ACROSS THE REST
OF THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WELL AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS FORMED AND IS SLOWLY
TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE BLUEGRASS
REGION OF KY AND THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50
MPH. SINCE THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS LINE IS UNSTABLE...CAN NOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE WIND GUST/ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH
THIS PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE. BUT THIS WILL ONLY BE A THREAT FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH.

BEHIND THIS LINE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AND TRAILING UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH
THIS EVENING. LOW STRATO-CU CLOUDS WILL BLANKET THE REGION TONIGHT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS MAY PRECLUDE FOG FROM FORMING...BUT AT
THE VERY LEAST WE COULD HAVE MIST OVERNIGHT/TOWARDS DAWN. MAY INSERT
FOG INTO THE GRIDS OVER THE WRN/SWRN CWA WHERE CLOUDS WOULD HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE TO ERODE. IT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 60S.

OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT/DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST FOR
FRIDAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING SLIDES OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE RATHER
LIGHT TOMORROW WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...

WE WILL FINALLY HAVE A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN AND GET A BREAK
FROM THE RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM.
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH A RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

A WEAK WAVE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THIS MAY BRING A FEW STORMS TO SOUTHERN
INDIANA SATURDAY. HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY MAY STAY JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW. UNDER
THE RIDGING WE WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD STORMS DO NOT LOOK
LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM RIGHT NOW SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW
CHANCE CATEGORY. AS THIS PASSES THROUGH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN...DRYING US OUT ONCE MORE.

TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM FROM HIGHS IN THE MID 80S SATURDAY TO
LOW 90S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL COOL OFF A FEW DEGREES
WEDNESDAY WITH THE POSSIBLE STORMS AND DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES ON
THURSDAY AFTER THE FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

MVFR/LOW VFR BKN-OVC SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH IS STILL WEST OF EVV. GUSTY SWRLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS WELL AS SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TSRA SHOULD AFFECT LEX
AND POSSIBLY SDF BUT THINK THE ACTIVITY THAT AFFECTS BWG WILL JUST
BE SHOWERS.

THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD LATER THIS EVENING
WITH MVFR/HIGH IFR CIGS PUSHING IN BEHIND AND RAIN SHOWERS
EVENTUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. A FEW LOWER VSBYS/BR WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOWARDS FRIDAY DAWN.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM........AL
LONG TERM.........EER
AVIATION..........AL

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
240 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

KYZ035-036-261930-
FRANKLIN-SCOTT-
240 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...PENNY
SIZE HAIL...AND STRONG WINDS...

AT 236 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES WEST OF FRANKFORT...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 45 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES
OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 45 TO 50
MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  OTTUSVILLE AND FLAG FORK...
  PEAKS MILL AND SWALLOWFIELD...
  ELMVILLE...
  SUTERVILLE AND MINORSVILLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3846 8454 3844 8454 3841 8449 3813 8492
      3821 8502 3826 8502 3835 8497 3837 8493
      3835 8489 3836 8488 3834 8481 3835 8476
      3849 8457
TIME...MOT...LOC 1840Z 239DEG 40KT 3825 8494

MJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
306 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

KYZ075-076-081-261945-
CUMBERLAND-METCALFE-MONROE-
206 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...PENNY
SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS...

AT 204 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTH OF RED BOILING SPRING...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES
OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  TOMPKINSVILLE...
  BURKESVILLE...
  MUD LICK AND HARLAN CROSSROADS...
  FORKTON AND GRANDVIEW...
  PERSIMMON AND ROCKBRIDGE...
  WILLOW SHADE AND MESHACK...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3663 8597 3664 8598 3666 8596 3669 8596
      3700 8550 3696 8545 3694 8546 3694 8539
      3685 8523 3663 8530 3661 8551
TIME...MOT...LOC 1907Z 232DEG 38KT 3666 8583

MJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
309 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

KYZ035-039-040-045>047-262000-
ANDERSON-FRANKLIN-MERCER-NELSON-WASHINGTON-WOODFORD-
309 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...PENNY
SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS...

AT 304 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TAYLORSVILLE...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES
OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  VERSAILLES...
  LAWRENCEBURG...
  KLONDYKE AND ASHBROOK...
  SINAI AND DRYDOCK...
  FOX CREEK AND ANDERSON CITY...
  MCBRAYER AND NEVIN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3779 8512 3792 8527 3797 8520 3797 8518
      3799 8518 3800 8516 3801 8514 3802 8513
      3822 8487 3805 8468
TIME...MOT...LOC 1909Z 229DEG 28KT 3792 8510

MJ

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