Severe Thunderstorm Warning 285, NWS Louisville, KY

962 
WWUS53 KLMK 260424
SVSLMK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1224 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

KYC005-073-103-167-179-211-215-229-239-260433-
/O.EXP.KLMK.SV.W.0285.000000T0000Z-110526T0430Z/
HENRY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SHELBY KY-WOODFORD KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-
NELSON KY-MERCER KY-WASHINGTON KY-
1224 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON...
NORTHERN MERCER...NORTHEASTERN NELSON...ANDERSON...EASTERN SPENCER...
WOODFORD...EASTERN SHELBY...FRANKLIN AND SOUTHEASTERN HENRY COUNTIES
WILL EXPIRE AT 1230 AM EDT...

THE STORMS THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED AND ARE NO LONGER 
SEVERE. HOWEVER STRONG STORMS REMAIN IN THE AREA. THESE ARE CAPABLE 
OF PRODUCING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. A GUST 
FRONT AHEAD OF THE STORMS IS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. 

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...
WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3838 8520 3836 8484 3834 8481 3835 8475
      3820 8474 3819 8476 3818 8472 3811 8467
      3788 8471 3786 8472 3785 8472 3785 8521
TIME...MOT...LOC 0423Z 271DEG 50KT 3834 8433 3785 8435

$$

DK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1110 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

...MESOSCALE UPDATE...

...INTENSE LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY WITH WINDS OF 60-70 MPH...

INTENSE LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
KENTUCKY.  IT IS BECOMING APPARENT THAT A SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL IS
DEVELOPING WHICH IS HELPING GENERATE A GUST FRONT THAT IS SURGING
OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE.  LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKENING
PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS THE WIND
SPEEDS OF 70+ MPH EARLIER HAVE DECREASED INTO THE 55-65 MPH RANGE.
WHILE THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED SOMEWHAT...WE STRONGLY ADVISE NOT TO
PLAY DOWN THIS LINE AS 55+ MPH WINDS STILL ARE STILL DESTRUCTIVE AND
CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES.  THIS LINE IS NOW APPROACHING
THE I-65 CORRIDOR...SO THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO.  OUT AHEAD OF THIS LINE...SOME RENEGADE STORMS ARE NOW
FIRING ACROSS SOUTHERN HARDIN COUNTY.  THESE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND
WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS THEY ARE DISCRETE AND OUT AHEAD OF THE
LINE.

ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THIS SQUALL LINE REMAINS QUITE UNSTABLE WITH LIS
STILL IN THE -3 TO -5 DEG CELSIUS RANGE.  CAPE VALUES ARE STILL IN
THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE WHICH WILL KEEP THIS LINE GOING FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  STILL THINK THAT THIS LINE SHOULD BE AFFECTING
AREAS ALONG A LINE FROM FRANKFORT TO CAMPBELLSVILLE BY 1215-1230 AM
EDT.  IT WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
LEXINGTON METRO AREA BY 100 AM EDT.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...

...POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE SQUALL LINE TO AFFECT THE AREA
TONIGHT...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KANSAS WILL PUSH TOWARDS CENTRAL
INDIANA TONIGHT...BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY COME IN TWO WAVES.

FIRST WAVE: A CONVERGENCE ZONE BASICALLY LOCATED JUST TO OUR NW/W
NEAR THE IL/IN/KY TRI-BORDER WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FROM NOW THROUGH ROUGHLY 7PM EDT. THESE
STORMS THOUGH WILL GENERALLY STAY JUST WEST OF OUR CWA...THOUGH A
FEW COUNTIES SUCH AS DUBOIS/ORANGE/PERRY OR OTHER CLOSE LOCATIONS
COULD BE IMPACTED BY THIS ACTIVITY. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
UNIDIRECTIONAL BUT STRONG...SO A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH GENERALLY LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EITHER. AGAIN...THIS ACTIVITY WILL
GENERALLY AFFECT THE IND CWA...BUT COULD SKIRT OUR NWRN CWA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SECOND WAVE: TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN SHOW AS A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY
GENERATES SHOWERS/STORMS MOST LIKELY ACROSS NERN ARKANSAS AND SERN
MISSOURI. A LITTLE WARMING ALOFT HAS THIS AREA QUIET FOR NOW...BUT
CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE NEAR THE MO/AR BORDER BY ROUGHLY 5PM EDT
AND LIKELY IN THE FORM OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. THESE POTENTIAL
STORMS HAVE PROMPTED A HIGH RISK FROM SPC...WHICH ACTUALLY CREEPS
INTO OUR WRN CWA. THESE SUPERCELLS WELL TO OUR WEST WILL HAVE A GOOD
CHANCE AT PRODUCING LONG TRACKED AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY TORNADOES
GIVEN THE LARGE INSTABILITY AND THE DEEP LAYER SPEED/DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR IN PLACE TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT SFC WINDS ACTUALLY
BACK THIS EVENING...INCREASING THE LOW-LEVEL HELICITIES AND BULK
SHEAR. AS THE SUPERCELLS TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST...THEY SHOULD SOMEWHAT
MORPH INTO A SQUALL LINE TONIGHT AND BY THE TIME CONVECTION REACHES
OUR WRN CWA...IT SHOULD BE A MIXED LINE OF BOWING SEGMENTS AND
DISCRETE CELLS. THUS AREAS OVER OUR FAR WRN CWA WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE AT SEEING TORNADIC STORMS MAINLY BETWEEN 7-10PM EDT. AS THIS
LINE PUSHES EAST IT WILL BECOME MORE OF A SQUALL LINE AND LESS
DISCRETE CELLS. THUS THE THREAT WILL SWITCH FROM A SUPERCELL
(TORNADOES/HAIL) MODE TO A SQUALL LINE (DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED
TORNADOES) MODE CLOSER TO I-65. THIS LINE SHOULD REACH AN SDF TO BWG
LINE ROUGHLY BY THE 9-11PM EDT TIME FRAME. AREAS EAST OF I-65 WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT FROM THE SQUALL LINE
FROM 11PM-MIDNIGHT AND LATER AS IT TRACKS EAST INTO THE BLUEGRASS.

CURRENTLY...A PDS TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
UNTIL 10 PM EDT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN
PLACE FOR A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR FAR WRN CWA. LOOKING FOR
ANY KIND OF BUST POTENTIAL...BUT DO NOT REALLY SEE ONE.

FOR TOMORROW...THE MAIN SQ LINE COULD BE ONGOING OVER FAR ERN CWA IN
THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER THIS IS THE PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY...AND
THE LOW PRESSURE/S COLD FRONT WILL STILL PUSH THROUGH OUR CWA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON-EVENING. SO THERE WILL STILL EXIST A THREAT FOR
AFTERNOON SEVERE WEATHER ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND MAINLY EAST OF
I-65 THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

CONCERNING TEMPS...TONIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S. RAINFALL/CLOUDS WILL GREATLY AFFECT TEMPS TOMORROW...SO THINK
WILL GO MODESTLY WITH THURSDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...

MOST OF THE ATTENTION TODAY HAS BEEN SPENT ON THE SHORT TERM SO THIS
DISCUSSION WILL BE NECESSARILY SHORT.

ONCE THE THURSDAY STORM SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY
EVENING THE WEATHER WILL BE MUCH QUIETER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID
WEEK NEXT WEEK. WE COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE SLIDES BY TO OUR NORTH...AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
WEAKENS A BIT. OTHERWISE HOWEVER THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY
HOT AND DRY WEATHER.

AFTER A COOL POST-FRONTAL DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S...90S WILL ENVELOP THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

CONDITIONS THROUGH 26/00Z WILL REMAIN VFR AT THE TAF SITES.
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF KSDF IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS DISCRETE STORMS FIRE AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SQUALL LINE WHICH IS APPROACHING NOW APPROACHING KPAH.  FOR THIS
REASON...WILL INSERT VCTS IN AT KSDF AND KBWG AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE TAF PERIOD.  BASED ON RADAR ESTIMATE/MOTION...BELIEVE THAT
STORMS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT KBWG AND KSDF BY 26/02Z.  WILL CARRY A
TEMPO GROUP FOR NOW FROM 26/02-05Z WITH HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH
WINDS.  LINE SHOULD BE EAST OF KSDF AND KBWG BY 26/05Z OR SO.
FURTHER EAST AT KLEX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EVENING HOURS.  WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT
12-15KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS.  STORMS SHOULD APPROACH KLEX BY
26/03-04Z SO WE'LL START A VCTS GROUP BY 26/03Z OR SO.  BEST CHANCE
OF STORMS IN THE KLEX TERMINAL WILL BE BETWEEN 26/04-08Z.  HERE WILL
ALSO CARRY HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS AND WIND HERE.  CONVECTION SHOULD BE
EAST OF KLEX BY 26/09Z.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TAF FORECAST THIS EVENING AND ONCE
STORMS GET CLOSER WILL ATTEMPT TO FURTHER REFINE THE TAFS AS NEEDED.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE......MJ
SHORT TERM.....AL
LONG TERM......13
AVIATION.......MJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
950 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-262000-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
950 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2011 /850 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM EDT...400 AM EDT.

AN INTENSE LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  WIND GUSTS WITHIN THE
LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY EXCEED 70 MPH.  IN ADDITION...LARGE HAIL
AND SCATTERED TORNADOES MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS SQUALL LINE.

THIS SQUALL LINE WILL ENTER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
BY 10 PM EDT AND REACH THE I-65 CORRIDOR BY 11 TO 1130 PM EDT.  IT
IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE FRANKFORT AND LEXINGTON AREAS BETWEEN 1230
AND 130 AM EDT.

SINCE THESE SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE OUTLOOK AREA
AT OVERNIGHT...WE HIGHLY ENCOURAGE YOU TO SET YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO
TO ALERT MODE SO THAT YOU CAN BE AWAKENED IN THE EVENT THAT A
WARNING IS ISSUED WHILE YOU ARE ASLEEP. MANY SEVERE WEATHER
FATALITIES OCCUR LATE AT NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF I-65.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. AT THIS TIME
SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS UNLIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM.

HOT WEATHER WILL MOVE IN FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HEAT INDEX
READINGS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S...AND ON TUESDAY MAY SURPASS 100 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER REPORTS WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

MJ/AL/13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1058 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ENGLISH                 38.33N  86.46W
05/25/2011                   CRAWFORD           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROOF OFF OF A SMALL BUILDING

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100814

RL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1059 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ENGLISH                 38.33N  86.46W
05/25/2011                   CRAWFORD           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES AND TREE DAMAGE ACROSS CRAWFORD
            COUNTY

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100815

RL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1106 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 PM     TSTM WND GST     HARDINSBURG             37.78N  86.45W
05/25/2011  M58 MPH          BRECKINRIDGE       KY   MESONET

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100816

RL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1113 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BRISTOW                 38.13N  86.72W
05/25/2011                   PERRY              IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN...SOME DAMAGE TO HOMES INCLUDING SIDING
            BLOWN OFF HOMES

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100817

RL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1139 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1136 PM     TSTM WND GST     ANCHORAGE               38.27N  85.54W
05/25/2011  E65 MPH          JEFFERSON          KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100818

RL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1146 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

KYZ024-026>028-045-053-061-063-260415-
BRECKINRIDGE-BUTLER-GRAYSON-HARDIN-HART-LARUE-NELSON-OHIO-
1146 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...SMALL
HAIL...AND STRONG WINDS...

AT 1141 PM EDT/1041 PM CDT/...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES
WEST OF BARDSTOWN TO 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LEITCHFIELD...AND MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES
OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...SMALL PEA OR DIME SIZE HAIL...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND
40 TO 50 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  LEITCHFIELD...
  HODGENVILLE...
  ELIZABETHTOWN...
  BARDSTOWN...
  TONIEVILLE AND SPIKE...
  SAMUELS FIELD AIRPORT AND WITHROW...
  EAST BARDSTOWN AND UPTON...
  TANNER AND MATHERS MILL...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE AWARE THAT A GUST FRONT PRECEDING THESE STORMS WILL GENERATE
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WELL BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF ANY RAIN.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3756 8663 3780 8620 3783 8575 3782 8575
      3782 8570 3783 8567 3785 8529 3780 8532
      3775 8539 3774 8538 3743 8574 3729 8689
TIME...MOT...LOC 0345Z 266DEG 28KT 3784 8556 3739 8614

RS