Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
302 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...

TIMING THE CURRENT LINE OF STORMS ON RADAR IT APPEARS THE LINE
SHOULD BE IN THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION AROUND 00Z WITH COLD FROPA
WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS THEREAFTER. WILL USE THIS TIMING IN THE GRIDS.

BEHIND THE STORMS AND FRONT A BRIEF PERIOD OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT THE LARGE LOW CLOUD FIELD SEEN OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST TODAY IS THEN EXPECTED TO SWEEP IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW SPRINKLES OR PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE BROUGHT MIN TEMPS UP TONIGHT A BIT WITH MORE
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.

THURSDAY WILL BE COMPLETELY DIFFERENT FROM TODAY. PLENTY OF CLOUDS
IN THE MORNING WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN AS ALREADY COLD
AIR SWEEPS IN. PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON BUT MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10
MPH WILL GIVE WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S. A FEW SPRINKLES OR PATCHES OF
LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN INDIANA
AND THE KENTUCKY BLUE GRASS.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...

WILL KEEP THIS SHORT AS THE FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON IS MAINLY ON THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY. THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF DRY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. WITH THE COLD AIR MASS IN
PLACE AND DECENT RADIATIVE COOLING TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S FRIDAY MORNING.

ON FRIDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PUSH
NORTH INTO TENNESSEE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO SPREAD INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY NEARER TO THE WARM FRONT. THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT LOOK
LIKELY ON SATURDAY SOME ELEVATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SO WILL
KEEP IN A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY
DEPART ON SUNDAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE WARM FRONT. WILL LEAVE OUT A MENTION OF A RASN MIX FOR NOW ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER A FEW FLAKES MAY BE POSSIBLE AS TEMPS DROP OVERNIGHT OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND CROSS THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS IS MUCH
WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ON THE COLD SIDE WE COULD
SEE A MIX OF RA/SN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS OVER THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

AT 16Z A SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF INDIANAPOLIS WITH A
COLD FRONT REACHING SOUTHWEST TO DALLAS. THE CU FIELD IS NOW WELL
ESTABLISHED AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPROUT THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE MOST COVERAGE DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH THE SETTING OF
THE SUN THIS EVENING AND BE SWEPT OUT OF THE AREA COMPLETELY BY THE
COLD FRONT. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AND MAY BE ON THE HIGH END OF MFVR.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
30KT POSSIBLE. THE FRONT WILL SWITCH WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST
THIS EVENING BUT AT LOWER SPEEDS IN THE 9 TO 14KT RANGE. WINDS WILL
VERY SLOWLY DECREASE THURSDAY AND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM........13
LONG TERM.........EER
AVIATION..........13

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
522 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0512 PM     HAIL             LEBANON                 37.57N  85.25W
03/23/2011  E0.50 INCH       MARION             KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100232

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
523 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0519 PM     HAIL             DANVILLE                37.64N  84.77W
03/23/2011  E1.00 INCH       BOYLE              KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED VIA DISPATCH

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100233

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
527 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 PM     HAIL             KNIFELY                 37.23N  85.18W
03/23/2011  E1.00 INCH       ADAIR              KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100234

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
532 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0427 PM     HAIL             2 NE NICHOLASVILLE      37.89N  84.56W
03/23/2011  E0.50 INCH       JESSAMINE          KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZED HAIL HAD OCCURRED PREVIOUSLY AT 325PM AT SAME
            LOCATION

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100235

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
537 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             RUSSELLVILLE            36.84N  86.89W
03/23/2011  E1.75 INCH       LOGAN              KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED

0530 PM     TSTM WND GST     RUSSELLVILLE            36.84N  86.89W
03/23/2011  E60 MPH          LOGAN              KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100236
EVENT NUMBER LMK1100237

LG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
540 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

KYZ071-073>078-081-232230-
ADAIR-ALLEN-BARREN-CUMBERLAND-METCALFE-MONROE-RUSSELL-WARREN-
440 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2011

...STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AFFECTING
ADAIR...ALLEN...BARREN...CUMBERLAND...METCALFE...MONROE...RUSSELL
AND WARREN COUNTIES...

AT 436 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE FROM GLASGOW TO 5 MILES SOUTH OF
THREE SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS
TO 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT...
  EDMONTON...
  RANDOLPH AND YESSE...
  HALIFAX AND GAINESVILLE...
  ROSEVILLE AND CEDAR SPRINGS...
  PETER CREEK AND GOODLUCK...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
PREPARE NOW BY MOVING YOUR CAR TO A GARAGE...AND GOING INDOORS.

&&

LAT...LON 3680 8641 3681 8642 3683 8656 3699 8580
      3697 8503 3677 8594
TIME...MOT...LOC 2139Z 271DEG 48KT 3697 8579 3684 8640

13