Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
302 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...

TIMING THE CURRENT LINE OF STORMS ON RADAR IT APPEARS THE LINE
SHOULD BE IN THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION AROUND 00Z WITH COLD FROPA
WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS THEREAFTER. WILL USE THIS TIMING IN THE GRIDS.

BEHIND THE STORMS AND FRONT A BRIEF PERIOD OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT THE LARGE LOW CLOUD FIELD SEEN OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST TODAY IS THEN EXPECTED TO SWEEP IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW SPRINKLES OR PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE BROUGHT MIN TEMPS UP TONIGHT A BIT WITH MORE
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.

THURSDAY WILL BE COMPLETELY DIFFERENT FROM TODAY. PLENTY OF CLOUDS
IN THE MORNING WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN AS ALREADY COLD
AIR SWEEPS IN. PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON BUT MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10
MPH WILL GIVE WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S. A FEW SPRINKLES OR PATCHES OF
LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN INDIANA
AND THE KENTUCKY BLUE GRASS.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...

WILL KEEP THIS SHORT AS THE FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON IS MAINLY ON THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY. THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF DRY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. WITH THE COLD AIR MASS IN
PLACE AND DECENT RADIATIVE COOLING TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S FRIDAY MORNING.

ON FRIDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PUSH
NORTH INTO TENNESSEE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO SPREAD INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY NEARER TO THE WARM FRONT. THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT LOOK
LIKELY ON SATURDAY SOME ELEVATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SO WILL
KEEP IN A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY
DEPART ON SUNDAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE WARM FRONT. WILL LEAVE OUT A MENTION OF A RASN MIX FOR NOW ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER A FEW FLAKES MAY BE POSSIBLE AS TEMPS DROP OVERNIGHT OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND CROSS THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS IS MUCH
WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ON THE COLD SIDE WE COULD
SEE A MIX OF RA/SN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS OVER THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

AT 16Z A SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF INDIANAPOLIS WITH A
COLD FRONT REACHING SOUTHWEST TO DALLAS. THE CU FIELD IS NOW WELL
ESTABLISHED AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPROUT THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE MOST COVERAGE DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH THE SETTING OF
THE SUN THIS EVENING AND BE SWEPT OUT OF THE AREA COMPLETELY BY THE
COLD FRONT. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AND MAY BE ON THE HIGH END OF MFVR.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
30KT POSSIBLE. THE FRONT WILL SWITCH WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST
THIS EVENING BUT AT LOWER SPEEDS IN THE 9 TO 14KT RANGE. WINDS WILL
VERY SLOWLY DECREASE THURSDAY AND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM........13
LONG TERM.........EER
AVIATION..........13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
356 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

INZ084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082-
242000-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
356 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011 /256 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9PM EDT...8PM CDT.

SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE
STORMS... ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I 65 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER...WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM...ALONG WITH BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM
TRACKS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER REPORTS WILL BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

INZ076>079-083-242000-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
356 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011 /256 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM
TRACKS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

13

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