Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
305 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011

.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT)...

WILL KEEP THIS SHORT DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. TORNADO
WATCH #92 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT / 6 PM CDT. QLCS ORGANIZED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASED DAMAGING WIND AND EMBEDDED
TORNADO THREAT IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. AS OF 3 PM EDT...BIGGEST
THREAT CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY WHERE DAMAGING
WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY
BEGUN PUSHING THROUGH PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA AND WEST CENTRAL
KENTUCKY AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

ANOTHER CONCERN ALONG WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH PWATS
OVER 1.5 INCHES IS SUPPORTING VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL. RAINFALL
RATES BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE RUNNING AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH
THE AREA SO EXPECT AREAS EAST OF I 65 WILL SEE AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR FLASH FLOODING AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND THE LAKE CUMBERLAND AREA.

HAVE CONVECTIVE LINE PUSHING ACROSS THE I 75 CORRIDOR BY 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY TRAILING STRATIFORM RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT.
HAVE OBSERVED LIGHTNING STRIKES IN POST FRONTAL RAIN SO WILL INCLUDE
THUNDER EAST OF I 65 UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE SHOULD BE QUICK
TO EXIT FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS WEST OF I 65 BY DAWN ON TUESDAY. ALSO OF NOTE...
TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY DROP BEHIND THE FRONT TO LOWS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 30S.

WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT AS GRADIENT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG EVEN A FEW HOURS AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. HAVE OBSERVED SEVERAL NON CONVECTIVE GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT IN AREAS THAT
ARE NOT RECEIVING A THUNDERSTORM.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY - SUNDAY)...

OUR FOCUS TODAY ON THIS AFTN/EVENING SEVERE WX EVENT.

WE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OUR NEIGHBORS BEGINNING TUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AND WILL MAKE JUST SUBTLE TWEAKS ON THE GRIDS/FORECAST.

BASICALLY...

COOL AT THE START FOR TNGT/TUE AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WARMING
TEMPS TO NEAR 80 BY THE WEEKEND. DRY FOR MOST FOLKS THRU THE PERIOD
WITH SHOWER/TSTM CHCS BEGINNING THU AFTN AND CONTINUING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THESE SHUD BE SCATTERED WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACRS THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH
IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. EXPECT THAT BWG
AND SDF WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FROM 130 PM TO 4 PM EDT BEFORE THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FURTHER EAST AT LEX EXPECT IMPACTS BY 300 PM
EDT UNTIL ABOUT 5 OR 6 PM. ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM WITH
REDUCED VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE AT TIMES. SUSTAINED GRADIENT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN 40
AND 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL
VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH CONTINUING RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT.
FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH SDF/BWG BY 4 PM EDT AND THROUGH LEX BY 6 PM
TO 8 PM EDT.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

SHORT TERM........BJS
LONG TERM.........DK/11
AVIATION..........BJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1142 AM EDT MON APR 4 2011

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-051545-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
1142 AM EDT MON APR 4 2011 /1042 AM CDT MON APR 4 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ONGOING STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A
POWERFUL COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL AS SECONDARY THREATS. AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I 65 CORRIDOR WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT
SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

ADDITIONALLY...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT SEE
REPEATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...GRADIENT WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AS A FRONT MEANDERS FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY WIND DAMAGE...MEASURED WIND
GUSTS...OR HAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AML/BJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
229 PM EDT MON APR 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0223 PM     TSTM WND GST     MAGNOLIA                37.45N  85.75W
04/04/2011  M62 MPH          LARUE              KY   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100280

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
251 PM EDT MON APR 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0141 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CANEYVILLE              37.42N  86.49W
04/04/2011                   GRAYSON            KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DISPATCH REPORTS MOBILE HOME ROOF BLOWN OFF... TREES
            UPROOTED... OUTBUILDINGS DOWN. HAM SUPPLEMENTS THIS
            REPORT FROM GRAYSON CO. SHERIFF DEPT. OF 3 GRAIN BINS
            OVERTURNED

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100281

MRC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
258 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011

KYZ035>037-039>043-041945-
ANDERSON-BOURBON-FAYETTE-FRANKLIN-HARRISON-NICHOLAS-SCOTT-WOODFORD-
258 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH...

AT 254 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR VERSAILLES...AND MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH.

TORRENTIAL RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES UP TWO INCHES PER HOUR REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF
AROUND 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  GEORGETOWN...
  VERSAILLES...
  PARIS...
  LAWRENCEBURG...
  HIGHLANDS...
  MATTOXTOWN AND GREENDALE...
  MONTEREY AND JIMTOWN...
  BRENTSVILLE AND CURRENTSVILLE...
  BLACKS CROSSROADS AND JACKSTOWN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3824 8406 3795 8490 3835 8497 3837 8493
      3834 8481 3836 8474 3848 8458 3851 8451
      3854 8449 3854 8444 3857 8442 3858 8422
      3855 8422 3848 8416 3843 8395 3837 8391
      3834 8384 3832 8384
TIME...MOT...LOC 1856Z 246DEG 74KT 3804 8469

DK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
319 PM EDT MON APR 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MORGANTOWN              37.22N  86.70W
04/04/2011                   BUTLER             KY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO TOMS BUILDING SUPPLY. SEVERAL
            LARGE TREES WERE DOWNED IN TOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100282

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
320 PM EDT MON APR 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SUGAR GROVE             37.08N  86.67W
04/04/2011                   BUTLER             KY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STORE SUSTAINED SOME STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100283

MRC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
325 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011

KYZ064>066-073>078-081-082-042030-
ADAIR-ALLEN-BARREN-CASEY-CLINTON-CUMBERLAND-GREEN-METCALFE-MONROE-
RUSSELL-TAYLOR-
225 PM CDT MON APR 4 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND
STRONG WINDS...

AT 222 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTHWEST
OF EDMONTON TO 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF WESTMORELAND...AND MOVING EAST AT
45 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES
OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH...ARE EXPECTED
WITH THESE STORMS.

* THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  TOMPKINSVILLE...
  JAMESTOWN...
  GREENSBURG...
  EDMONTON...
  COLUMBIA...
  LITTLE BARREN AND NODE...
  LILETOWN AND NEWT...
  MELL AND PICKETT...
  PORTLAND AND KEMP...

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT THE CUMBERLAND (NUNN) PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 27 AND 62.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3664 8612 3717 8574 3718 8569 3728 8565
      3728 8473 3724 8474 3711 8492 3706 8492
      3699 8485 3686 8507 3677 8501 3662 8500
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 260DEG 40KT 3708 8570 3663 8609

MJ