Severe Thunderstorm Warning 341, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
702 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

...FORECAST UPDATE...

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE A TORNADO WATCH. THIS WATCH COVERS A
PORTION OF SOUTHERN INDIANA AND MOST OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY THROUGH 11
AM THIS MORNING. A SEVERE SQUALL LINE NOW ENTERING WESTERN KENTUCKY IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY RACE ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY SHORTLY AFTER DAWN.
THIS LINE MAY PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. AHEAD OF THIS LINE...SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

A WIDESPREAD MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPED OVER MISSOURI
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AS FORECAST BY VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE. THESE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A WARM FRONT
THAT AT 2 AM STRETCHED SOUTH OF KANSAS CITY TO PADUCAH. A STRONG
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY AIMED AT MISSOURI AND WILL HELP
SUSTAIN THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INTO
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY AFTER 5 AM.

PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 2 INCHES AND ELEVATED CAPE OVER 2500
JOULES ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
STORM COVERAGE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS TO
OUR WEST WILL BECOME QUITE VIGOROUS WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN.
INDEED...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS ALREADY LED TO SOME SCATTERED
ELEVATED STORMS OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.

SHORT RANGE MESO-SCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND THE 00Z SPC WRF
BRING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN
INDIANA DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR ACROSS
MISSOURI...EXPECT THAT THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY IN THE 8 TO 11 AM TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
WARM ADVECTION RELATED POP UP STORMS WILL LIKELY BRING LIGHTER
AMOUNTS BEFORE THIS.

EARLIER YESTERDAY MORNING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FELL ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
INDIANA ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AND ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 64. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY FAST EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS
MORNING'S EXPECTED CONVECTION...EXPECT THAT SOME AREAS OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY MAY SEE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN ONCE AGAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCAL RUN-OFF PROBLEMS.

SIMILAR TO EARLY SATURDAY...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OUT OF OUR REGION BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. LEFT
OVER CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS MAY ONCE AGAIN SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL REDUCE POPS TO JUST CHANCE BY MID
AFTERNOON.

HIGHS TODAY WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON ANY CLOUD COVER OR LEFT OVER
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY REACH THE LOWER
80S.

A DEVELOPING STORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING AND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL MOVE THE STORM TRACK A BIT NORTH. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY FARTHER NORTH...AFFECTING PERHAPS JUST SOUTHERN INDIANA
AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION. WARMISH OVERNIGHT LOWS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS
WILL MAKE TONIGHT QUITE MUGGY.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY - SATURDAY)...

APPEARS WE WILL RETURN TO HEAT AND RELATIVELY HIGH HUMIDITY FOR MON
AND TUE WITH WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. LOWER TO MID 90 TEMPS
SHUD RETURN.

WILL KEEP AND INCREASE A BIT LOW CHC POPS PRIMARILY FOR OUR NERN
FORECAST AREA FOR MON WITH A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX POSSIBLY BRUSHING
THAT AREA EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AROUND FOR NEW
STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE. THIS FITS WITH OUR NEIGHBORING
NRN/ERN OFFICES AND WITH SPC SLIGHT RISK.

MONDAY NIGHT SHUD BE DRY WITH UPR LEVEL RIDGE MOVING ACRS THE
REGION. AFTERWARD...WILL INCREASE POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
OUR NWRN QUADRANT WITH LOWER POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST AS MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW WOBBLES ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY WITH IMPULSES ON THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW...GRADUALLY MAKING HEADWAY TOWARD
OUR FORECAST AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW.

THEN WED AND WED NIGHT...SHOWERS/TSTMS SHUD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
AS STACKED LOWS REACH WISCONSIN AND GULF MOISTURE INCREASES IN
STRENGTHENING S/SW FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REACHING NEAR 2 INCHES WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY AND SIGNIFICANT SHEAR FOR LATE JUNE.

SCT SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THU AS WELL WITH COLD
FRONT STILL LAGGING UPSTREAM. WILL LEAVE THE REST OF THE FCST
UNCHANGED. PREV DISC FOR THAT PERIOD FOLLOWS:

THURSDAY - SATURDAY...

THURSDAY...STORMS WILL STILL BE AROUND AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES
SLOW PROGRESS EAST.  BY THURS NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE
AN END TO RAINS AS THE BOUNDARY FINALLY CLEARS THE AREA.

EXPECT DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WORK THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

A SQUALL LINE WILL IMPACT AVIATION AT SDF AND BWG AND PROBABLY LEX
THIS MORNING. AT THIS TIME THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BRING
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND BRIEF VISIBILITIES UNDER ONE MILE
TO SDF AROUND THE 12 TO 13Z PERIOD...WITH MFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
IN SHOWERS FOR A COUPLE HOURS AFTER THE INITIAL LINE MOVE THROUGH.

THE SAME IS TRUE FOR BWG...WHERE THE LINE IS ESTIMATED TO MOVE
THROUGH AROUND 13Z...WITH 30 TO 40 MPH WINDS LIKELY. AT
BWG...SCATTERED CONVECTION AND MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY PRIOR TO THE
LINE'S PASSAGE.

SHOULD THIS LINE HOLD TOGETHER...THIS STRONG LINE WILL AFFECT LEX
AROUND 13 TO 15Z.

AGAIN...MVFR CIGS AND SEVERAL HOURS OF RAIN WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE
INITIAL LINE OF STORMS.

PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SCATTERED STORMS MAY RE-DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
HOWEVER...LOCATION AND TIMING ARE PROBLEMATIC AND WILL ACCOUNT FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY BY PLACING CB IN THE TAFS. SKIES WILL TEND TO CLEAR
WITH VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z MONDAY.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE.........JSD
SHORT TERM.....JSD
LONG TERM......DK/11
AVIATION.......JSD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
420 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

INZ083-084-089>091-KYZ023>030-034-038-045-046-053-054-061>065-
070>078-081-082-200830-
DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-SHELBY KY-SPENCER KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
LARUE KY-MARION KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-
MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-
CLINTON KY-
420 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011 /320 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL
KENTUCKY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THESE STORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE RUN
OFF PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS
EARLIER SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE BLUEGRASS AREA. GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY...PRIMARILY OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION OF KENTUCKY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION AND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STORMS SHOULD BE
MOST WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES...OR HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

INZ076>079-092-KYZ031>033-035>037-039>043-047>049-055>057-066-067-
200830-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-CLARK IN-OLDHAM KY-
TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-ANDERSON KY-
WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-MERCER KY-
JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-CASEY KY-
LINCOLN KY-
420 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID DAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. HEAVY RAIN
MAY CREATE RUNOFF PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS THAT RECEIVED
PRIOR HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY MORNING.

ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY...PRIMARILY OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION OF KENTUCKY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION AND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STORMS SHOULD BE
MOST WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT DAMAGING WINDS OR HEAVY RAIN TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

JSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
808 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 AM     TSTM WND DMG     HARNED                  37.75N  86.42W
06/19/2011                   BRECKINRIDGE       KY   AMATEUR RADIO

            ROOF BLOWN OFF HOUSE

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100903

TENHARMSEL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
826 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

INZ078-079-092-KYZ031>033-191300-
CLARK-HENRY-JEFFERSON-OLDHAM-SCOTT-TRIMBLE-
826 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY
RAIN...HALF INCH HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS...

AT 824 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF
SCOTTSBURG TO 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF LA GRANGE...AND MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH.

CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES
OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...SMALL PEA OR DIME SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 45 TO
50 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  BEDFORD...
  SCOTTSBURG...
  MADISON...
  DEPUTY AND OLDHAM...
  WISES LANDING AND SLIGO...
  LANCASTER AND FIVE POINTS...
  MIDDLEFORK AND DUPONT...

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 65 IN INDIANA BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 29 AND 33.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3870 8520 3874 8527 3873 8532 3864 8523
      3859 8522 3861 8509 3858 8507 3856 8501
      3852 8503 3851 8498 3845 8557 3874 8586
      3877 8585 3881 8581 3883 8574 3883 8565
      3892 8555 3893 8521
TIME...MOT...LOC 1226Z 260DEG 35KT 3877 8576 3850 8551

AMS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
728 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

KYZ063-073-074-076-191300-
ALLEN-BARREN-HART-METCALFE-
728 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND
GUSTY WINDS...

AT 724 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MUNFORDVILLE TO 12
MILES EAST OF PLUM SPRINGS TO 6 MILES SOUTH OF MEMPHIS JUNCTION...AND
MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND GUSTY
WINDS OF AROUND 40 TO 45 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  SCOTTSVILLE...
  GLASGOW...
  GLASGOW MUNICIPAL AIRPORT AND SETTLE...
  HALFWAY AND YESSE...
  RED HILL AND THREE SPRINGS...
  ROSEVILLE AND SLICK ROCK...

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 65 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 43 AND 58...AND THE CUMBERLAND (NUNN) PARKWAY BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 11 AND 1.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE AWARE THAT A GUST FRONT PRECEDING THESE STORMS WILL GENERATE
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WELL BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF ANY RAIN.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3679 8640 3688 8628 3690 8627 3689 8624
      3691 8623 3691 8621 3693 8621 3693 8617
      3706 8612 3706 8608 3724 8606 3719 8569
      3716 8568 3713 8565 3687 8574 3666 8610
TIME...MOT...LOC 1228Z 291DEG 38KT 3728 8592 3699 8611
          3684 8648

AL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
830 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0823 AM     TSTM WND GST     MOUNT WASHINGTON        38.05N  85.55W
06/19/2011  M58 MPH          BULLITT            KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LIMBS DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100904

TENHARMSEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
835 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     TSTM WND DMG     SCOTTSBURG              38.69N  85.78W
06/19/2011                   SCOTT              IN   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREES POWERLINES DOWN NEAR SCOTTSBURG

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100905

AML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
837 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0801 AM     TSTM WND DMG     ELIZABETH               38.13N  85.97W
06/19/2011                   HARRISON           IN   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100906

AL