Severe Thunderstorm Warning 159, NWS Louisville, KY

077 
WWUS53 KLMK 232233
SVSLMK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
633 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2011

KYC093-163-232243-
/O.EXP.KLMK.SV.W.0159.000000T0000Z-110423T2230Z/
MEADE KY-HARDIN KY-
633 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN HARDIN AND
SOUTHEASTERN MEADE COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS EXPIRED. HOWEVER A NEW SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM HAS BEEN ISSUED.

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...
WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3790 8626 3795 8588 3771 8588 3769 8623
      3773 8621 3780 8616 3786 8623
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 267DEG 42KT 3787 8616 3771 8622

$$

SCHOETTMER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
426 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2011

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SUNDAY NIGHT)...

...CONTINUED DANGEROUS FLOODING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER...

TORRENTIAL RAINS FALLING OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. THAT
AREA MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK AS ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT WEST TO EAST FOR
A COUPLE OF HOURS. STILL MORE STORMS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...AND THESE MAY TAKE A TRAJECTORY JUST SOUTH OF THE
HEAVIEST RAIN AREA FROM TODAY SO FAR. IT SEEMS HOWEVER THAT THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS ONLY TAKEN 3-4 HOURS TO RECOVER BEFORE NEW STUFF
DEVELOPED. WILL CONTINUE 100 POPS UP NORTH TRAILING TO LOW-END
SCATTERED AT THE TENNESSEE BORDER. WITH THAT LINE OF STORMS...WILL
BE A RISK FOR TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...THUS A TORNADO
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO 00Z.

OVERNIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT DEEP MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO
BRING EXCELLENT RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH
LONG-FUSED FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ACROSS THE REGION...AS THESE ISSUES
WILL NOT GO AWAY QUICKLY. HAVE EMPHASIZED DANGEROUS NATURE OF THESE
RAINS...AND WITH THE BOUNDARY NOT EXPECTED TO LIFT TOO FAR NORTH AT
LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY...AREA RIVERS WILL STAY SWOLLEN FOR SOME TIME.
A RESPITE MAY COME FROM THE SOUTH BY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE NOT
CHANGED THE SIZE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH THIS PACKAGE. ONLY
EXTENDED TIMING TO 06Z MONDAY.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY - SATURDAY)...

...SIGNIFICANT RAINS AND SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ANTICIPATED IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...

MONDAY - MONDAY NIGHT...

HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO THE ONGOING LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
SETUP STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR SEVERAL WAVES OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN/OH BY MONDAY MORNING...KEEPING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. EXPECTING AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN FOR
SOUTHERN INDIANA COUNTIES WEST OF I 65 DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL
OCCUR AS STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT NEAR THE AREA.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WITH ANOTHER
SHOT OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE CWA...ALONG WITH MORE HEAVY RAINFALL.
ONCE AGAIN EXPECT LINEARLY FORCED LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. MAIN
TORNADO THREAT WILL BE WITH ANY BOWING SEGMENT HOWEVER CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES 50 TO 60 KNOT SW ORIENTED LLJ
OVERSPREADS SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS YIELDING LARGE AND LOOPING LOW
LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. BEST THREAT WILL BE WEST OF I 65. ANOTHER HALF AN
INCH TO AN INCH OF QPF WILL BE LIKELY WITH THIS QUICK MOVING STORM
ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

TRAILING COLD FRONT STALLS OUT TUESDAY JUST WEST OF THE CWA...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH OVER THE AREA. STEADY SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES
PROVIDING CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO WORK WITH.
ANOTHER WIDESPREAD QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH OF QPF CAN BE EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN REPEATED THUNDERSTORMS.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE EJECTS EAST. THIS LOW
IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD OUR
REGION. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WEST OF I
65. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
LOW WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE WEST OF I
65 ON WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS FINAL
BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS AND WHERE DEFORMATION/STRONG CONVERGENCE OCCUR ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE LOW. RIGHT NOW...THIS AXIS APPEARS TO BE ORIENTED
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DIRECTLY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER BASIN BETWEEN
KY/IN. THIS WOULD BE AN INSULTING FINAL SHOT OF RAIN THAT WOULD MAKE
AN ALREADY BAD SITUATION THAT MUCH WORSE. WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THIS LOW TRACK AS IT HAS MOVED WEST FROM YESTERDAY/S MODEL
RUNS. AGREE WITH THE POTENTIAL ECHOED BY HPC/S 5 DAY QPF  WITH A
VERY TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA. THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...THEY HAVE AS MUCH AS 10 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL ACROSS
SOUTHWEST INDIANA INCLUDING OUR NORTHWEST CWA. ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER...AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES. FROM BOWLING GREEN TO
LEXINGTON...AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
COMBINE WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING TO ADD TO
THE ALREADY ONGOING FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING PROBLEMS. STAY UPDATED
OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AS THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUR AREA
OUTLOOKED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THURSDAY - SATURDAY...

THURSDAY HEAVY RAINS AND T-STORMS SHOULD BE GONE WITH ONLY A FEW SCT
SHOWERS IN THE UPPER TROUGH BEHIND THIS SFC LOW.  WE/LL FINALLY SEE
WHAT LOOKS TO BE A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER FRI/SAT BEFORE ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES ON SUN/MON.

LOOK FOR THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY IN THE MID 80S...COOLING
TO AROUND 80 ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR
WEDNESDAY...COOLING TO THE LOWER 60S FOR THURSDAY IN THE UPPER TROUGH.
A WARM UP FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

FOCUS FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER AND NORTH OF KSDF...CLOSER TO
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HAVE MVFR GRIDS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
THERE AND BORDERLINE MVFR AT KLEX...WHERE STORMS MORE LIKELY WILL
STAY JUST TO THE NORTH. THINK RISK IS ISOLATED ENOUGH NOW TO KEEP
KBWG OUT OF PROBLEMS THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...FOCUS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ALONG THE OHIO...BUT REST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH
TO KEEP VICINITY STORMS IN ALL SITES OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO ONCE AGAIN LIMIT ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTH BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY...BUT VSBY MAY BE REDUCED AND/OR CIGS REMAIN MVFR IN
MOIST AIRMASS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR KYZ023>043-
     045>049-053>055.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR INZ076>079-083-
     084-089>092.

&&

SHORT TERM........RJS
LONG TERM.........BJS
AVIATION..........RJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
354 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2011

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-242000-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
354 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2011 /254 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. A
TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND
SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA.

THE MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING
WITH RAPID RISES ON AREA RIVERS...CREEKS...AND DITCHES. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR SOUTH-
CENTRAL INDIANA AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT...FLOODING CONCERNS WILL LIKELY BE
WITH US FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES TO RIVER
FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE NEEDED FROM NOW THROUGH SUNDAY TO REPORT ANY
INSTANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER...AS WELL AS ANY FLOODING THAT OCCURS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
552 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             3 NW CENTERTOWN         37.45N  87.03W
04/23/2011  M1.00 INCH       OHIO               KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100571

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
554 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0552 PM     HEAVY RAIN       GOSHEN                  38.41N  85.59W
04/23/2011  M4.89 INCH       OLDHAM             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2.55 INCHES FELL YESTERDAY AND 2.34 INCHES FELL THUS
            FAR TODAY

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100572

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
556 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0553 PM     HAIL             RADCLIFF                37.82N  85.94W
04/23/2011  E0.50 INCH       HARDIN             KY   AMATEUR RADIO

            HAM RELAYED REPORT OF MARBLE SIZED HAIL... OTHER
            REPORTS OF PEA SIZED HAIL

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100573

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
603 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0601 PM     HAIL             1 N HARTFORD            37.47N  86.89W
04/23/2011  M0.88 INCH       OHIO               KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100574

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
605 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0557 PM     TSTM WND GST     BEAVER DAM              37.41N  86.88W
04/23/2011  E65 MPH          OHIO               KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            WEHT RELAYED SPOTTER REPORT OF ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS
            BETWEEN 60-70 MPH

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100575

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
606 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0558 PM     HAIL             HARDINSBURG             37.78N  86.45W
04/23/2011  M1.00 INCH       BRECKINRIDGE       KY   AMATEUR RADIO

            HAM RELAYED TWO REPORTS OF QUARTER SIZED HAIL

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100576

LG