River Flood Warning 65, NWS Louisville, KY

789 
WGUS83 KLMK 280149
FLSLMK
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 
949 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
KENTUCKY...

  DRAKES CREEK NEAR ALVATON 
  BARREN RIVER AT BOWLING GREEN 
  ROUGH RIVER NEAR DUNDEE 
  GREEN RIVER AT MUNFORDVILLE 
  GREEN RIVER AT BROWNSVILLE 
  GREEN RIVER AT WOODBURY 
  GREEN RIVER AT ROCHESTER 
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN KENTUCKY...BUTLER...EDMONSON...
HART...MUHLENBERG...OHIO...WARREN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER ATTEMPT TO CROSS ANY FLOODING ROADS. THIS IS 
ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR COMMERCIAL BROADCASTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. IF YOU ARE AFFECTED
BY THESE CRESTS TAKE ANY NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS.
 
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT 
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LMK (ALL LOWER CASE).

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

KYC227-281549-
/O.CON.KLMK.FL.W.0064.000000T0000Z-110429T1000Z/
/ALVK2.2.ER.110427T2325Z.110428T0600Z.110429T0400Z.NO/
949 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE DRAKES CREEK NEAR ALVATON.
* AT  8:45 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 22.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 31.7 FEET BY 
  AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 33.0 FEET...PARTS OF OLD STONE GOLF COURSE FLOOD.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 30.3  
  FEET ON JAN 29 2009.

$$

KYC227-281548-
/O.CON.KLMK.FL.W.0065.110428T0800Z-110429T1700Z/
/BWGK2.1.ER.110428T0800Z.110429T0000Z.110429T1100Z.NO/
949 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BARREN RIVER AT BOWLING GREEN.
* FROM LATE TONIGHT TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT  8:45 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 20.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 28.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY THURSDAY AND CONTINUE TO
  RISE TO NEAR 31.1 FEET BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 30.0 FEET...BOAT LANDING ROAD IS IMPASSABLE.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 30.4  
  FEET ON JAN 29 2009.

$$

KYC183-281548-
/O.CON.KLMK.FL.W.0051.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/DUNK2.3.DR.110424T0148Z.110428T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
949 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ROUGH RIVER NEAR DUNDEE.
* AT  8:45 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 28.5 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 25.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 31.0 FEET BY 
  THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 30.2  
  FEET ON MAR 3 1997.

$$

KYC099-281548-
/O.CON.KLMK.FL.W.0066.110428T1751Z-110430T1700Z/
/MFVK2.1.ER.110428T1751Z.110429T1200Z.110430T1100Z.NO/
949 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GREEN RIVER AT MUNFORDVILLE.
* FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT  9:00 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 28.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 32.6 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY MORNING.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 32.7  
  FEET ON JAN 30 2009.

$$

KYC061-281548-
/O.CON.KLMK.FL.W.0067.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BRNK2.1.ER.110428T0132Z.110428T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
949 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GREEN RIVER AT BROWNSVILLE.
* AT  8:45 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO RISE 
  TO NEAR 24.9 FEET BY AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY.
* IMPACT...AT 25.0 FEET...ROAD LEADING FROM OLD LOCK RESERVATION TO 
  MAIN HIGHWAY FLOODS. EMO MEREDITH CITY PARK FLOODS.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 24.8  
  FEET ON APR 14 2011.

$$

KYC031-227-281548-
/O.CON.KLMK.FL.W.0059.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/WDBK2.2.ER.110425T2342Z.110428T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
949 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GREEN RIVER AT WOODBURY.
* AT  6:00 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 35.3 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 33.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 47.8 FEET BY 
  THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* IMPACT...AT 48.0 FEET...WATER APPROACHES KY 403 ON OPPOSITE SIDE OF 
  TOWN NEAR LEVY. TRAVEL IS DIFFICULT INTO TOWN.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 48.9  
  FEET ON MAR 5 1997.

$$

KYC031-177-183-281548-
/O.CON.KLMK.FL.W.0060.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/RCHK2.2.ER.110425T0841Z.110430T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
949 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GREEN RIVER AT ROCHESTER.
* AT  7:00 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 22.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 26.1 FEET BY 
  EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* IMPACT...AT 25.0 FEET...WATER ENTERS BASEMENTS IN SOME HOMES ALONG 
  RIVER.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 24.4  
  FEET ON MAY 22 1995.

$$

730 
WGUS83 KLMK 281443
FLSLMK
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 
1043 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
KENTUCKY...
 
  DRAKES CREEK NEAR ALVATON 
  BARREN RIVER AT BOWLING GREEN 
  GREEN RIVER AT MUNFORDVILLE 
  GREEN RIVER AT BROWNSVILLE 
  ROUGH RIVER NEAR DUNDEE 
  GREEN RIVER AT WOODBURY 
  GREEN RIVER AT ROCHESTER 
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN KENTUCKY...BUTLER...EDMONSON...HART...MUHLENBERG...OHIO...WARREN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER ATTEMPT TO CROSS ANY FLOODING ROADS. THIS IS 
ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR COMMERCIAL BROADCASTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. IF YOU ARE AFFECTED
BY THESE CRESTS TAKE ANY NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS.

.RAINFALL WAS LESS THAN PREDICTED SO FLOODING WILL NOT BE AS BAD.
 
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT 
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LMK (ALL LOWER CASE).

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED TONIGHT.

&&

KYC227-290343-
/O.EXT.KLMK.FL.W.0064.000000T0000Z-110429T1200Z/
/ALVK2.1.ER.110427T2325Z.110428T1800Z.110429T0600Z.NO/
1043 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE DRAKES CREEK NEAR ALVATON.
* AT  9:45 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 25.7 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 25.9 FEET BY THIS
  AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT 
  FRIDAY.
* IMPACT...AT 21.0 FEET...PHIL MOORE PARK FLOODS OVER TRAILS.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 25.6  
  FEET ON JAN 20 1988.

$$

KYC227-290342-
/O.EXT.KLMK.FL.W.0065.000000T0000Z-110429T0600Z/
/BWGK2.1.ER.110429T0000Z.110429T0000Z.110429T0000Z.NO/
1043 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BARREN RIVER AT BOWLING GREEN.
* AT  9:45 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 25.5 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 28.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE THIS 
  EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 23.0 FEET...PARKS BEGIN TO FLOOD. MOST OF THOMAS LANDING
  AND WELDON PEETE PARK FLOOD.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 28.1  
  FEET ON DEC 19 1990.

$$

KYC183-290342-
/O.CON.KLMK.FL.W.0051.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/DUNK2.2.DR.110424T0148Z.110429T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1043 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ROUGH RIVER NEAR DUNDEE.
* AT  9:45 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 28.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 25.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 29.0 FEET BY 
  AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* IMPACT...AT 28.0 FEET...POST OFFICE AT BARRETTS FERRY FLOODS.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 29.0  
  FEET ON MAY 19 1995.

$$

KYC099-290342-
/O.EXT.KLMK.FL.W.0066.110429T0700Z-110430T0700Z/
/MFVK2.1.ER.110429T0700Z.110429T1200Z.110430T0100Z.NO/
1043 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GREEN RIVER AT MUNFORDVILLE.
* FROM LATE TONIGHT TO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
* AT 10:00 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 23.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 28.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE TO 
  RISE TO NEAR 28.4 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW
  FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY LATE EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 28.0 FEET...CITY PARK UNDER US 31W BRIDGE FLOODS.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 28.3  
  FEET ON MAR 21 2002.

$$

KYC061-290342-
/O.EXT.KLMK.FL.W.0067.000000T0000Z-110501T1400Z/
/BRNK2.1.ER.110428T1230Z.110429T0600Z.110501T0800Z.NO/
1043 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GREEN RIVER AT BROWNSVILLE.
* AT  9:45 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 19.4 FEET BY 
  AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY
  MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 18.0 FEET...RIVER BEGINS TO OVERFLOW THE LOCK WALLS AND 
  SOME OF THE LOWER BANKS...CREEKS...SLOUGHS...AND SOME BOTTOMLAND.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 19.4  
  FEET ON MAY 10 2009.

$$

KYC031-227-290342-
/O.CON.KLMK.FL.W.0059.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/WDBK2.1.ER.110425T2342Z.110430T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1043 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GREEN RIVER AT WOODBURY.
* AT  6:00 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 41.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 33.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 42.6 FEET BY 
  FRIDAY EVENING THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* IMPACT...AT 43.0 FEET...MANY PARTS OF WOODBURY FLOOD.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 42.2  
  FEET ON APR 3 1979.

$$

KYC031-177-183-290342-
/O.CON.KLMK.FL.W.0060.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/RCHK2.1.ER.110425T0841Z.110430T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1043 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GREEN RIVER AT ROCHESTER.
* AT  7:00 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 22.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 24.5 FEET BY 
  SATURDAY MORNING THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* IMPACT...AT 25.0 FEET...WATER ENTERS BASEMENTS IN SOME HOMES ALONG 
  RIVER.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 24.4  
  FEET ON MAY 22 1995.

$$
CMC

177 
WGUS83 KLMK 290330
FLSLMK
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 
1130 PM EDT THU APR 28 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
KENTUCKY...
 
  DRAKES CREEK NEAR ALVATON
  BARREN RIVER AT BOWLING GREEN
  GREEN RIVER AT MUNFORDVILLE
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN KENTUCKY...HART...WARREN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER ATTEMPT TO CROSS ANY FLOODING ROADS. THIS IS 
ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR COMMERCIAL BROADCASTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. IF YOU ARE AFFECTED
BY THESE CRESTS TAKE ANY NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS.
 
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT 
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LMK (ALL LOWER CASE).

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED --.

&&

KYC227-290400-
/O.CAN.KLMK.FL.W.0064.000000T0000Z-110429T1038Z/
/ALVK2.1.ER.110427T2325Z.110428T1400Z.110429T0438Z.NO/
1130 PM EDT THU APR 28 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE DRAKES CREEK NEAR ALVATON.
* AT 10:45 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 20.5 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...CONTINUE FALLING TO AROUND 18 FEET EARLY FRIDAY 
  AFTERNOON.

$$

KYC227-290400-
/O.CAN.KLMK.FL.W.0065.000000T0000Z-110429T0600Z/
/BWGK2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1130 PM EDT THU APR 28 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE BARREN RIVER AT BOWLING GREEN.
* AT 10:45 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.5 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 28.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 26.7 FEET.  THE 
  RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 18.1 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING.


$$

KYC099-290400-
/O.CAN.KLMK.FL.W.0066.000000T0000Z-110430T0700Z/
/MFVK2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1130 PM EDT THU APR 28 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE GREEN RIVER AT MUNFORDVILLE.
* AT 11:00 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 25.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 28.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL FALL TO AROUND 16 FEET FRIDAY 
  EVENING.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1039 AM EDT WED APR 27 2011

...MESOSCALE UPDATE...

AS OF 1015 AM EDT...ALL POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAD MOVED
JUST EAST OF OUR FCST AREA IN EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY. THUS HAVE CANCELLED REMANDING 45 MINUTES OF TOR WATCH
WHICH WAS IN EFFECT TIL 11 AM EDT.

MAIN QUESTION NOW CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE
STORMS. BOUNDARIES OVER TN VALLEY AND LOWER MS VALLEY COMPLICATE
MATTERS CONSIDERABLY. NEVERTHELESS...WE WILL SEE A BIT OF SUNSHINE
IN WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION BEFORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP FROM MCS OVER
WRN TN AND NRN MS HEAD OUR WAY. AIR MASS WILL BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE
A BIT LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THIS NEW
AREA OF RAIN. ALSO...AS MAIN SFC LOW AND UPPER LOW LIFTS NEWD...
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING
EXIT REGION OF IMPRESSIVE JET STREAK OVER LOWER MS VALLEY AND
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THIS WOULD CREATE VERY FAVORABLE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ONCE AGAIN OVER OUR AREA. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELD MAY BE COMPLICATED BY MCS TO OUR SOUTH...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON BOUNDARY AND CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION LATE THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON.

FOR NOW...WHILE GREATEST INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER
INCLUDING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF KY (AS PER SPC
OUTLOOK)...CENTRAL KY COULD WELL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SVR WEATHER
FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH ALL SEVERE WEATHER
MODES POSSIBLE.

WILL SEND OUT ANOTHER FCST DISCUSSION UPDATE AS CONDITIONS EVOLVE.

...EARLIER FORECAST UPDATE...

UPDATED THE PRODUCTS TO INCLUDE A NEW TORNADO WATCH FOR THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE HAD SOME LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS WITH THE MAIN
LINE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. MOST ORGANIZED PORTION AND
LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE IS MOVING INTO AN AREA THAT HAS NOT BEEN
WORKED OVER AND STABLE LAYER AT THE SURFACE SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS.
THEREFORE...WITH RESPECT TO THE INCREDIBLE WIND SHEAR PROFILES...
TORNADO THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS EAST OF I
65. TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND THE REDEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...
CONTINUES TO BE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT
CLEARING RAPIDLY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND CONVECTION FIRING OVER
SOUTHERN AR WITH SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE...FEEL THE CHANCES ARE
INCREASING THAT MODERATE RISK WILL BE MOVED WEST AND WE WILL SEE
SEVERE STORMS FIRE UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS. PUBLIC SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
READY FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

...WIDESPREAD FLOODING RAINFALL LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED
BY A POSSIBLE OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...

ANOTHER ACTIVE EARLY MORNING HERE IN THE OHIO VALLEY AS LARGE BATCH
OF MODERATE OF HEAVY RAINFALL SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
STILL HAVE SEVERAL AREAS OF STRONGER STORMS MOVING THE REGION.
OVERALL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PROFILES REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH FOR
ROTATING UPDRAFTS IN THE STRONGER STORMS.  CURRENTLY IT APPEARS
THAT WE'RE SEEING THE LAST BOWING SEGMENT COMING INTO OUR SOUTHWEST
SECTIONS.  THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY MOVE NORTHEAST AND AFFECT OUR
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING.  IN ADDITION TO THESE HEAVY STORMS...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.  AREAS SUCH AS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
NORTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY ARE PICKING UP COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL.
RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2"/HR ARE LIKELY OCCURING...AND WE'VE SEEN THIS
QUANTIFIED IN MESONET AND ASOS OBS.  IN GENERAL...FEEL THAT
REMAINING SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.  WILL BE
COORDINATING WITH SPC TO SEE IF WE CAN DROP THE TORNADO WATCH NORTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY MORNING...EXPECT THIS LARGE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND BEGIN AFFECTING THE
LEXINGTON AREA AROUND SUNRISE OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.  TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD WITH LOWER-MID 60S EXPECTED.  WITH THE HIGH
RAIN RATES OBSERVED...WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE SHARP/QUICK RISES IN AREA
RIVERS ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA.  I WOULD IMAGINE THAT
SOME CHANGES WILL BE FORTHCOMING ON THE RIVER FORECASTS LATER THIS
MORNING.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...IT IS STILL A VERY COMPLEX
FORECAST.  THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS CURRENT
COMPLEX MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING.  THE HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THIS COMPLEX WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD
AND GRADUALLY WIND DOWN TOWARD MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON.  EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP INSTABILITY DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY.  HOWEVER...THERE IS
CONCERN THAT A DRY AIR SLOT CLEARLY SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER NORTH TX/CENTRAL OK MAY TRANSLATE QUICKLY EASTWARD AND HELP CUT
OFF THE RAIN ACROSS THE REGION AND MAY RESULT IN SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING. IF THAT WERE TO OCCUR...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE RISK. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE SEVERE
RISK IS CONDITIONAL UPON...CLEARING IF ANY DUE TO THE DRIER AIR THAT
MAY WORK IN...AND HOW LONG THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION LINGERS AROUND.

RIGHT NOW...WE'RE LEANING TOWARD THE CONVECTION HOLDING ON A BIT
MORE WHICH WOULD KEEP OUR NORTHWEST SECTIONS A BIT MORE STABLE.
HOWEVER...OUR SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN MORE
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON.  AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND NOSES INTO THE REGION...WE ARE LIKELY
TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY ERUPT ACROSS TN AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KY.  BEST RISK SEEMS TO BE SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM BOWLING GREEN TO RICHMOND KENTUCKY. IN THIS AREA...SHEAR
PROFILES ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE SUGGESTING SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.  IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF CLEARING TAKES PLACE FURTHER WEST...SEVERE
RISKS WOULD ALSO NEED TO BE PULLED BACK TO THE WEST AS WELL. PRIME
TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE LIKELY FROM ABOUT 2P-8P EDT.

BY THE EVENING...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST AND
DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR
I-65 THIS EVENING AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING
BRINGING AN END TO THIS SEVERE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
EPISODE.

HIGHS TODAY ARE GOING TO BE TRICKY DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
FEEL THAT HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S IN THE NORTH WITH MID-UPPER 70S
IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STILL LOOK GOOD ATTM.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY - TUESDAY)...

THURSDAY - SATURDAY...

WE WILL SIT IN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THUR/THUR NIGHT KEEPING LOW
CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AROUND.  BOTH THE NAM/GFS AGREE
ON A SHRT/WV BRINGING IN SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THUR
NIGHT.  QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT UNDER A TENTH OF AN
INCH.

FRIDAY AND MUCH OF SATURDAY WILL BE DRY DUE TO A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.  SOME MUCH WANTED SUNSHINE WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE FINALLY.

ALTHOUGH THURSDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOL IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR
HIGHS...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE BEAUTIFUL...IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.  THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
IS AS FOLLOWS:

SATURDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...

A WETTER PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVE INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. PERSISTENT
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL DO ITS BEST TO HOLD GROUND...HELPING
TO STALL THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AS OPEN SHORTWAVE OVER ONTARIO
CLOSES OFF AND HEADS DUE NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF I 65 SATURDAY NIGHT...EVERYWHERE ON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND EAST OF I 65 ON MONDAY. TIMING COULD
CHANGE SLIGHTLY SLOWER OR FASTER WITH THIS FRONTAL PROGRESSION
DEPENDING ON HOW WELL RIDGING TO THE EAST HOLDS UP. HAVE INCREASED
POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD TO A SOLID CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE. CURRENTLY
WITH FRONTAL PROGRESSION QUITE SLOW...QPF COULD AMOUNT TO AN INCH TO
AN INCH AND A HALF THROUGH THE EVENT...HOWEVER WITH SEVERAL DAYS
RECOVERY AHEAD OF THIS RAIN...FEEL IMPACTS WOULD BE LIMITED TO
SLOWING REGRESSION OF THE AREA RIVERS.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ON SUNDAY AND IN THE UPPER 60S
ON MONDAY WITH LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA KEEPING THINGS DRY...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

BWG AND SDF HAVE BEEN IN SOLID MVFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...OCCASIONALLY
DROPPING TO IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. EXPECT MODERATE RAIN
TO END AT BWG WITH AN HOUR OR SO AND AT SDF WITHIN TWO HOURS. SOLID
LINE OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO WORK EAST HOWEVER EXPECT
MODERATE RAIN TO BEGIN WITHIN 1 TO 2 HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
TO VFR AT BWG/SDF FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE MID TO LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH
GUSTING TO AS HIGH AS 30 MPH AT TIMES. THE BIG QUESTION FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE HOW MUCH WE DESTABILIZE AND WHETHER OR
NOT CONVECTION CAN RE-FIRE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...CLEARING
DOES LOOK TO BE WORKING IN QUICKLY FROM THE WEST AND UPSTREAM
CONVECTION IS ALREADY FIRING OVER THE LOWER MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE...WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT BWG/SDF BY 3 OR 4 PM EDT AGAIN.

LEX SHOULD BE UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION RE-FIRING OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON EVENING.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-
     053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ076>079-083-084-
     089>092.

&&

MESOSCALE......TWF
SHORT TERM.....MJ
LONG TERM......BJS
AVIATION.......BJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1055 AM EDT WED APR 27 2011

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-281000-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
1055 AM EDT WED APR 27 2011 /955 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND
SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS
LOW PRESSURE RIDES NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED
WITH THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED 3 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS
RAINFALL COULD WELL RENEW FLASH FLOOD PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH SAW VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. BE PREPARED FOR RAPID STREAM AND
RIVER RISES AND DO NOT DRIVE OVER FLOODED ROADWAYS!

IN ADDITION...A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE AREA. THIS POSSIBILITY...HOWEVER...WILL BE COMPLICATED BY
INTENSE STORMS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF STATES
WHICH COULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF INTENSE STORMS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. NEVERTHELESS...INCREASING WIND FIELDS ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
OF THE STORMS SHOULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

EXPECT CONTINUED FLOODING OF LARGER RIVERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH A THREAT OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ALONG A COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...FLOODING AND
SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TWF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
907 AM EDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0738 AM     TSTM WND DMG     TOMPKINSVILLE           36.70N  85.69W
04/27/2011                   MONROE             KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN NEAR CENTERPOINT ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100673

TT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
915 AM EDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0726 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E AKERSVILLE          36.65N  85.88W
04/27/2011                   MONROE             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN NEAR STATE LINE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100674

TT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
956 AM EDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0913 AM     TSTM WND DMG     7 SE LEXINGTON          37.97N  84.37W
04/27/2011                   FAYETTE            KY   AMATEUR RADIO

            ROAD SIGN DAMAGED NEAR EXIT 104 ON I-75 AND PENNY SIZED
            HAIL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100675

TT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1020 AM EDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0759 AM     TSTM WND DMG     6 E HESTAND             36.65N  85.51W
04/27/2011                   MONROE             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN AND BARNS DAMAGED

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100676

TT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1037 AM EDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0823 AM     TSTM WND DMG     ALBANY                  36.69N  85.14W
04/27/2011                   CLINTON            KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A FEW TREES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100677

TT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1049 AM EDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0841 AM     TSTM WND DMG     DUNNVILLE               37.20N  85.00W
04/27/2011                   CASEY              KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ONE TREE DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100678

TT