River Flood Warning 2, NWS Louisville, KY

679 
WGUS83 KLMK 251251
FLSLMK
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 
751 AM EST FRI FEB 25 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
KENTUCKY...
 
  STONER CREEK AT PARIS 
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN KENTUCKY...BOURBON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER ATTEMPT TO CROSS ANY FLOODING ROADS. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR COMMERCIAL BROADCASTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. IF YOU ARE AFFECTED BY THESE CRESTS TAKE ANY NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS.
 
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT 
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LMK (ALL LOWER CASE).

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

KYC017-260051-
/O.EXT.KLMK.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-110226T0751Z/
/PRSK2.1.ER.110225T1220Z.110225T1900Z.110226T0151Z.NO/
751 AM EST FRI FEB 25 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE STONER CREEK AT PARIS.
* AT  7:00 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO 
  RISE TO NEAR 19.5 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW
  FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 20.0 FEET...WATER ENTER YARDS OF HOMES DOWNSTREAM OF 
  WATER PLANT. PARTS OF THE CITY PARK FLOOD.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 19.8  
  FEET ON JUN 30 1998.

$$
CMC

922 
WGUS83 KLMK 260037
FLSLMK
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 
737 PM EST FRI FEB 25 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
KENTUCKY...
 
  STONER CREEK AT PARIS 
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN KENTUCKY...BOURBON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER ATTEMPT TO CROSS ANY FLOODED ROADS. THIS IS 
ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR COMMERCIAL BROADCASTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. IF YOU ARE AFFECTED
BY THESE CRESTS TAKE ANY NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS.
 
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT 
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LMK (ALL LOWER CASE).

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

KYC017-261437-
/O.EXT.KLMK.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-110226T1655Z/
/PRSK2.1.ER.110225T1223Z.110226T0014Z.110226T1055Z.NO/
737 PM EST FRI FEB 25 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE STONER CREEK AT PARIS.
* AT  7:14 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 19.0 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...STONER CREEK IS NEAR CREST NOW. THE CREEK WILL BEGIN
  TO FALL THIS EVENING...AND FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  EARLY SATURDAY.
* IMPACT...AT 20.0 FEET...WATER ENTER YARDS OF HOMES DOWNSTREAM OF 
  WATER PLANT. PARTS OF THE CITY PARK FLOOD.

$$

936 
WGUS83 KLMK 261214
FLSLMK
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 
714 AM EST SAT FEB 26 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
KENTUCKY...
 
  STONER CREEK AT PARIS
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN KENTUCKY...BOURBON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER ATTEMPT TO CROSS ANY FLOODING ROADS. THIS IS 
ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR COMMERCIAL BROADCASTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. IF YOU ARE AFFECTED
BY THESE CRESTS TAKE ANY NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS.
 
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT 
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LMK (ALL LOWER CASE).

THIS IS THE LAST STATEMENT ON THIS FLOOD EVENT.

&&

KYC017-261244-
/O.CAN.KLMK.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-110226T1655Z/
/PRSK2.1.ER.110225T1223Z.110226T0014Z.110226T0915Z.NO/
714 AM EST SAT FEB 26 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE STONER CREEK AT PARIS.
* AT  7:00 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET.
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 4:15 AM SATURDAY.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 15.6 FEET.
  BY SUNDAY MORNING. 
$$
RL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
847 PM EST THU FEB 24 2011

...MESOSCALE UPDATE...

MESOSCALE UPDATE 2...

LOW-LEVEL HELICITY CONTINUES HIGH. VWP FROM KHPX INDICATES 70 KNOT
WINDS AT 3 KFT. SURFACE INSTABILITY A LITTLE WEAK WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 50S...BUT UPSTREAM SITES OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY HAVE
REPORTED WIND DAMAGE...POTENTIALLY TORNADIC...AS WELL AS SOME HAIL.
BASED ON THIS POTENTIAL...HAVE ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY UNTIL 07Z.

MESOSCALE UPDATE 1...

SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NE ARKANSAS AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER KANSAS/OKLAHOMA AS OF 0Z THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE ENE
PROGRESS TONIGHT BRINGING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO SOUTH CENTRAL
KY.  LOOKING AT THE 21Z HRRR AND 18Z NAM...THE SFC LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NE THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL KY ALONG A SFC
BOUNDARY AND AXIS OF PRESSURE FALLS.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AS A 70 TO 80 KT H85 JET...30 KTS 0-1 KM
WIND SHEER...AND LOW LCL/S ALL SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTION WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOS BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
CONVECTIVE MODE LOOKS TO REMAIN SIMILAR TO WHAT WE/VE SEEN OUT TO
OUR WEST THIS EVENING...LOTS OF BOWING/LEWP SEGMENTS ALONG THE MAIN
LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WITH ISOLATED STRONG CELLS JUST
AHEAD OF THE LINE.  ISOLATED TORNADOS/DAMAGING WINDS COULD POSE A
THREAT IN EITHER TYPE OF CONVECTION.  WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
TOR WATCH SOMETIME THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KY POSSIBLY INTO
THE BLUEGRASS REGION DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NE THAT SFC LOW TRACKS.
STAY TUNED TO WEATHER.GOV AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST
WATCH/WARNING INFO.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT...FLOODING WILL STILL BE A THREAT
TONIGHT AS THE HEAVY CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.  CENTRAL KY
IS MOST PRIMED FOR THIS THREAT AS THEY HAVE RECEIVED 1-2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL AS OF 7PM EST THIS EVENING.  FLOODING PROBLEMS MAY BE MINOR
ADVY LEVEL TYPE OR THEY COULD ESCALATE TO FLASH FLOODING IF WE GET A
PERIOD OF TRAINING STORMS.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

FINALLY...WILL BE UPDATING THE WIND GRIDS TO SHOW SOME STRONGER
WINDS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION AS THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTENING PRODUCING A STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL KY THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...

...HEAVY RAIN...FLOODING...AND A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...

AFTERNOON SFC MAP SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER BETWEEN KY/IN.  WEAK VORTICITY MAX WAS MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION WHICH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FIRST WAVE OF
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION TODAY.  FURTHER SOUTH...A
WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN TN WHICH IS SLOWLY MOVING
NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON RANGED FROM
THE MID-UPPER 40S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTH.

LATEST MODEL DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE
AND IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.  CONSENSUS OF THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE AGREES WITH TAKING A DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER TEXAS AND
SWINGING IT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH ARKANSAS AND INTO KENTUCKY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  AS THIS OCCURS...STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
TRANSPORT A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERALL TREND IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAS
BEEN SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK WHICH RESULTS IN A
HEAVY PRECIP BAND SETTING UP ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.  COMPARING THE
ACTUAL MODEL OUTPUT TO REALITY HAS SHOWN THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN A
LITTLE TO FAR NORTH WITH RESPECT TO THEIR HEAVY RAIN BANDS...WHILE
THE ENSEMBLE RUNS HAVE DONE A MUCH BETTER JOB.  THUS...WE PLAN ON
STICKING CLOSER TO THE ENSEMBLE MEAN HERE WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY A
FEW CHANGES BUT MAINTAINS CONSISTENCY WITH OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FOR TONIGHT...WE EXPECT SFC WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN TENNESSEE TO
SURGE NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND GET INTO SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.  HOW
FAR NORTH THIS FRONT GETS IS IN QUESTION.  THE LATEST RUC13 AND HRRR
MODEL RUNS SUGGEST IT COULD GET A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PARKWAYS IN
KENTUCKY.  AFTER THE FRONT MOVES NORTH...SFC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN SWEEP THROUGH FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT.  STRONGLY FORCED
LINE OF LINEAR CONVECTION CURRENT ACROSS WEST ARKANSAS AND EAST
TEXAS IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD.  THE LATEST RUC...HRRR AND
OPERATIONAL LMK WRF AND EXPERIMENTAL WRF RUNS SHOW THAT THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THIS LINE MAY IMPACT A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY.  WHILE THE INSTABILITY IS RATHER MEAGER...IMPRESSIVE
LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND STRONG SHEAR ARE MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT
AND ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST HERE OR THERE ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED
TORNADO.  OVERALL...FEEL THAT DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREAT AND THAT THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE LATER THIS EVENING
BETWEEN 25/03-10Z AND GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE PARKWAYS.  FURTHER
NORTH...FEEL THAT SEVERE THREAT IS MUCH MORE LIMITED SIMPLY DUE TO
THE EXISTING RAINFALL AND VERY LOW INSTABILITY.

STILL FEEL THAT MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE HEAVY RAINFALL.
BASED ON THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...STILL THINK THAT AREAS ALONG THE
BG/WKY PARKWAY ARE STILL IN LINE FOR THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WITH 3-4 INCHES POSSIBLE.  SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THOUGH.  FOR THAT REASON...WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS RAINFALL IS DISCUSSED BELOW IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION.

IN ADDITION...STRONG GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT.  SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP OVER 30 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE RIGHT BEFORE AND AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS PROBABLY OCCURING LATE THIS EVENING.  TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL VERY LATE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PRESSES THROUGH WITH
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER-MID 30S IN THE WESTERN HALF WITH UPPER
30S TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE EAST.

FOR FRIDAY...SHOULD SEE A BIT OF POST FRONTAL CLOUD COVER AND
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DURING THE MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY.  SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY DEVELOP LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE COOL WITH CONTINUED
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEING QUITE ACTIVE.  HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO TOP OUT
IN THE LOWER-MID 40S IN THE NORTH WITH MID-UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...

FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY NIGHT...

THE WEEKEND WILL START OUT ON A DRY NOTE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND H5 FLOW REMAINS ZONAL. EXPECT PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THIS TIME AS ONLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL SKY
COVER WILL BE PRESENT. BEST CHANCE FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL...AROUND 30 DEGREES. SATURDAY WILL SEE THE
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH HIGHS JUMPING INTO THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE
RANGE. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING AND INCREASING SKY
COVER...SATURDAY NIGHT WILL YIELD MILD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...

THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WILL BRING AN
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER AS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND GREAT PLAINS SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARD
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON THE TIMING/PLACEMENT
OF SURFACE LOW...HOWEVER BEST CHANCES FOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
APPEAR TO BE EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. PREFER THE FASTER
GFS SOLUTION AS IT HAS OTHER MODEL SUPPORT AND IS NOT EVEN AS FAST
AS ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN. DO NOT LIKE THE SLOWER ECMWF AS IT TENDS TO
HOLD ONTO EJECTING SOUTHWEST ENERGY TOO LONG. THEREFORE...EXPECT
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO ISENTROPIC
LIFT TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY
EVENING...EXPECT LIKELY CHANCES FOR RAIN SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THOUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL ALSO BE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. A 60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH SOME
INSTABILITY EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO CREATE A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT. HOWEVER...AS IS GENERALLY THE CASE WITH STRONG DYNAMIC/LOW
INSTABILITY SITUATIONS...WILL THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT BE ABLE TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE THROUGH A SOMEWHAT STABLE LAYER. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE IN ANY THUNDERSTORM. CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED TORNADOES EITHER AS CONVECTIVE MODE WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
QLCS FORM. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED AREAS JUST TO THE WEST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH THE MENTION OF POTENTIALLY EXPANDING AN OUTLOOK
EASTWARD WITH FUTURE UPDATES. STAY TUNED. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
AS ANOTHER INCH TO POSSIBLY 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD FALL OVER A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WITH OUR RECENT RAINS...FLASH FLOODING WILL
ALSO BE A THREAT.

COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT BY
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH NON-CONVECTIVE WIND POTENTIAL ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON VERTICAL THETA SURFACES ON TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX INTO A 40 TO 50 KNOT LAYER OF WIND
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. ADDING TO THE WIND POTENTIAL...A DRY SLOT
HAS POTENTIAL TO WORK INTO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD
INCREASE MIX DOWN POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL WARM NICELY INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S AS
WE STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW ADDS A WAA
COMPONENT. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE MILD WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING
INTO THE LOWER 50S. MONDAY WILL LIKELY FEATURE AN EARLY HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH THE MERCURY DROPPING OFF LATER IN THE DAY AS
STRONG COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH AND CAA COMMENCES.

MONDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH FLOW TRANSITIONING TO A MORE NORTHWEST PATTERN BY
MID WEEK. EXPECT MUCH COOLER LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE MERCURY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30 TO 35
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE TO THE FROM THE LOW
50S ON TUESDAY TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S ON THURSDAY. THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY ASIDE FROM LINGERING SHOWERS
EAST OF I 65 ON MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

* FORECAST OVERVIEW AND RAINFALL -

LATEST SUITE OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED
TOO MUCH BETWEEN THE 24/06Z AND 25/12Z RUNS.  BOTH THE OPERATIONAL
GFS AND NAM RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AXIS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
FALLING JUST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.  COMPARING THE
MODELS TO REALITY HAS SHOWN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE TOO FAR
NORTH WITH THEIR AXIS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION.  THE 24/12Z GFS
ENSEMBLE AND 24/09Z SREF ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE A BIT MORE TO THE
SOUTH...JUST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BLUEGRASS AND WESTERN KY
PARWKAYS.  SINCE PRECIPITATION SEEMS TO BE VERIFYING CLOSER TO THE
ENSEMBLES...WE ARE LEANING ON KEEPING OUR AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP
ORIENTED IN CENTRAL KY...NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE BLUEGRASS AND
WESTERN KY PARKWAYS.  IN GENERAL...THIS IS NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT MAYBE JUST A HAIR NORTH OF WHERE WE
FORECASTING BEFORE.

RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE GENERALLY BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE WITH LESS THAN 0.50 INCHES.  HEAVY RAINS WILL MOVE BACK
IN LATER TONIGHT AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL
KENTUCKY.  STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 3-5 INCHES LOOKS LIKELY IN THE
HEAVY RAIN CORRIDOR.  ELSEWHERE 2-4 INCHES OF RAINFALL STILL LOOKS
LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY.

* BASINS OF CONCERN -

THE FOLLOWING BASINS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE HYDROLOGIC ISSUES OVER
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...GREEN...BARREN...ROUGH RIVER...ROLLING FORK
AND LICKING RIVER BASINS.

ON THE BARREN RIVER...DRAKES CREEK NEAR ALVATON WILL LIKELY GO INTO
FLOOD ON FRIDAY.  AM EXPECTING TO SEE A RISE AT BOWLING GREEN...BUT
NOT THAT MUCH. ON THE GREEN RIVER...BROWNSVILLE WOODBURY AND
ROCHESTER ARE LIKELY TO HIT FLOOD STAGE ON FRIDAY.  OVER ON THE
ROUGH RIVER...DUNDEE IS CURRENTLY RISING IS EXPECTED GO INTO FLOOD
ON FRIDAY.

OVER ON THE ROLLING FORK RIVER...WE SHOULD START TO SEE THE RIVER
RISE AT BOSTON LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A SHARP RISE
OCCURING OVERNIGHT.  IT WILL LIKELY GO INTO FLOOD FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND MAY GET CLOSE TO MODERATE FLOOD BY THE WEEKEND.

ON THE KENTUCKY RIVER...DIX DAM HAS HAD THEIR GATES OPEN ALLOWING
HERRINGTON LAKE TO DRAIN OFF A BIT.  BASED ON OUR CALCULATIONS...WE
FIGURE THAT THEY CAN HANDLE ABOUT 3 INCHES OF RAIN...WHICH IS VERY
CLOSE TO WHAT WE'RE FORECASTING.  THE RELEASE OF WATER AT THE DAM
PLUS THE RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO RISES ALONG THE KENTUCKY RIVER AT
HIGH BRIDGE AND FRANKFORT.  AT THIS TIME WE EXPECT THESE STATIONS TO
STAY BELOW ACTION STAGE...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

FURTHER EAST...WE'LL LIKELY SEE RISES ON THE LICKING RIVER AT
CYNTHIANA AND BLUE LICKS SPRINGS.  ALSO WILL LIKELY SEE SOME RISES
OVER ON STONER CREEK IN PARIS KY AS WELL.  CYNTHIANA AND BLUE LICKS
SPRINGS WILL LIKELY HIT FLOOD STAGE ON FRIDAY AS WELL.

WHILE WE WILL DRY OUT OVER THE WEEKEND...MUCH OF THE WATER IN THE
RIVERS FEEDING THE OHIO WILL CAUSE THE OHIO TO SEE A STEADY RISE
OVER THE WEEKEND.  A SECONDARY WEATHER SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY
RESULT IN ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD PUSH SEVERAL POINTS
ALONG THE OHIO INTO FLOOD.  MOST LIKELY WE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE TELL
CITY AND CANNELTON HIT FLOOD STAGE.

IF YOU LIVE IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA ALONG ANY CREEK OR STREAM IN
CENTRAL KENTUCKY...KEEP ABREAST OF THE WATER LEVELS AND BE PREPARED
TO SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF FLOODING OCCURS.

* SIGNIFICANT CHANGES -

BASED ON THE DATA ABOVE...WE HAVE ONLY MADE SMALL CHANGES TO OUR
HEAVY RAINFALL AXIS.  IN GENERAL...WE STILL FEEL IT WILL BE CENTERED
ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WITH A SLIGHT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT NOTED.

* CONFIDENCE LEVEL -

CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH FOR REACHING ACTION/FLOOD STAGE FOR GAUGES
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GREEN/BARREN/ROUGH RIVER/ROLLING FORK AND THE
LICKING RIVER BASINS.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR REACHING ACTION/FLOOD STAGE FOR GAUGES
ALONG THE KENTUCKY RIVER.

* GRAPHICAL INFORMATION -

FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND GRAPHICAL INFORMATION SEE OUR INTERNET
WEBSITE FOR RIVERS AND LAKES AT...

HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LMK

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

SURFACE LOW NOW OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS...DEEPENING...AND ON ITS WAY
TO CENTRAL KENTUCKY. A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW IS PROVIDING
ENOUGH LIFT FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS...BRINGING LOW CIGS AND VSBYS. THE
LOW SHOULD BE OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY SOMEWHERE BETWEEN KSDF AND KBWG
JUST AFTER 06Z. AS STORMS MOVE THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT AHEAD OF
THE LOW...WILL THE GUSTIEST WINDS AT THE KBWG SITE...WHICH WILL BE
DEEPER INTO THE WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

STORMS SHOULD END BEFORE DAYBREAK...BUT MAY HAVE LINGERING RAIN
KEEPING VSBYS DOWN. MODELS INDICATED RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT WILL KEEP CIGS DOWN LIKELY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE LOW WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE
WINDS AT THE TAFS...SO HAVE PUT IN BEST ESTIMATE FOR EACH OF THE
SITES. THE STRENGTH OF THE GRADIENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
GUSTY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT...EVEN OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS
COMING.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE......RJS/AML
SHORT TERM.....MJ
LONG TERM......BJS
HYDROLOGY......MJ
AVIATION.......RJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
852 PM EST THU FEB 24 2011

KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082-260200-
HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-
BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-
FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-
WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-
WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-
BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-
GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-
SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-
RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
852 PM EST THU FEB 24 2011 /752 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR REGION. A WARM FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS
WILL BRING TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS PICKING UP AS MUCH AS 5 INCHES. THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
COULD CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WHEN THE
HEAVIEST RAINS ARE EXPECTED...THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS A TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY. DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS AS A SQUALL LINE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF SEVERE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS.
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED IF EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT ARE REALIZED. GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL TOTALS AS WELL AS ANY
STORM DAMAGE OR HAIL TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE THIS TONIGHT.

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-260200-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-
852 PM EST THU FEB 24 2011 /752 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR REGION. A WARM FRONT
SETTLING TO THE SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WILL PRECEDE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ADDITIONAL
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. TOTAL RAINFALL FOR THE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 2 TO
3 INCHES. THE HEAVY RAINS WILL CAUSE BRIEF PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS.
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED IF EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT ARE REALIZED. GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL TOTALS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE TONIGHT.

MJ/BJS/AML

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
858 PM EST THU FEB 24 2011

KYZ024-026-027-061-070-250300-
BRECKINRIDGE-BUTLER-GRAYSON-LOGAN-OHIO-
758 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...PENNY
SIZE HAIL...AND STRONG WINDS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...

AT 856 PM EST/756 PM CST/...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF LIVERMORE TO 6 MILES WEST OF GREENVILLE TO 23 MILES
NORTHWEST OF ELKTON TO 47 MILES WEST OF GUTHRIE...AND MOVING EAST AT
50 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES
OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 45 TO 55
MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  RUSSELLVILLE...
  MORGANTOWN...
  HARTFORD...
  SMALLHOUS AND KIRTLEY...
  HEFLIN AND BUFORD...
  TAFFY AND BELLS RUN...
  ADABURG AND HIGHVIEW...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER NOW AHEAD OF THESE STORMS. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.
SHOULD THIS LINE OF STORMS BECOME STRONGER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNING WILL BE REQUIRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3748 8713 3757 8705 3773 8632 3743 8631
      3732 8647 3729 8647 3719 8659 3718 8663
      3714 8662 3668 8695 3666 8707 3707 8707
      3708 8694 3712 8691 3713 8694 3722 8691
      3727 8699 3735 8703 3736 8709 3734 8713
TIME...MOT...LOC 0157Z 253DEG 45KT 3744 8726 3718 8726
          3697 8751 3656 8800

RS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1004 PM EST THU FEB 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N LEWISBURG           37.00N  86.95W
02/24/2011                   LOGAN              KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON HIGHWAY 431.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100134

MRC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1004 PM EST THU FEB 24 2011

KYZ061-070>072-250330-
BUTLER-LOGAN-SIMPSON-WARREN-
904 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND
STRONG WINDS...

AT 900 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF RUSSELLVILLE...AND MOVING
EAST AT 45 MPH.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES OF AROUND ONE
INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE MILE...AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 40 TO 50 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  FRANKLIN...
  THREE SPRINGS...
  RUSSELLVILLE...
  PLUM SPRINGS...
  MOUNT VICTOR...
  CHANDLERS CHAPEL AND HOMER...
  GASPER AND AUBURN...
  BROWNING AND PETROS...
  ROCKFIELD AND BLUE LEVEL...

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 65 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
20 AND 6.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT THE NATCHER PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND
7.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3706 8705 3714 8636 3680 8638 3678 8641
      3668 8642 3666 8707
TIME...MOT...LOC 0304Z 262DEG 51KT 3690 8691

AML