Severe Thunderstorm Warning 136, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
335 PM CDT MON JUN 6 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK BOUNDARY SITTING NEAR INTERSTATE 10-12 CORRIDOR AT 20Z.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HAVE PRODUCED NUMEROUS
REPORTS OF ONE INCH OR LARGER HAIL. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S
ALLOWED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE STORMS. THIS HAS BROKEN THE
HEAT SOMEWHAT FOR MOST OF THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
CURRENT CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING. WEAK IMPULSE MOVING WESTWARD UNDER THE RIDGE WILL TRIGGER
ANOTHER SPATE OF CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SCATTERED POPS
SHOULD COVER IT FOR TOMORROW...AND A LITTLE LESS AREAL COVERAGE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN THOSE SEEN OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT STILL NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...
WEAK RIDGING CENTERED ALONG THE GULF COAST SHOULD KEEP THINGS
MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRAY
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED...AND
WILL NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT NOT AS HOT AS LAST
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA. GUSTS WITH CONVECTION COULD BE AROUND 40 KNOTS OR SO
THIS EVENING. 00Z TAFS WILL NEED TO INCORPORATE CONVECTION IN MOST
AREAS FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
CONVECTION OVER MARINE AREAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE TIDAL
LAKES...SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND SEAS NO MORE THAN 2 TO 3 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  99  69  94 /  30  30  30  30
BTR  74  99  72  93 /  30  30  30  30
ASD  74  95  73  93 /  30  30  30  30
MSY  75  94  76  92 /  30  30  20  30
GPT  73  96  74  92 /  30  30  30  30
PQL  72  95  73  94 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

35

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
402 PM CDT MON JUN 6 2011

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-072115-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
402 PM CDT MON JUN 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL WATERS
OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE.

AN OZONE ACTION DAY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BATON ROUGE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HEAT INDEX
READINGS NEAR 105 DEGREES POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL.

AN OZONE ACTION DAY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE BATON ROUGE AREA
FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

FLOOD WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI AND ATCHAFALAYA RIVERS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ANY REPORTS OF
SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON OR TUESDAY SHOULD BE RELAYED TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAZ056-059-065-066-062230-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
433 PM CDT MON JUN 6 2011

...CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHWEST AFFECTING
ASSUMPTION PARISH...TERREBONNE PARISH...LAFOURCHE PARISH...

AT 430 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THIBODAUX...OR ABOUT OVER
SCHRIEVER...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

THE CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
THE INDICATED PARISHES.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE SUB SEVERE HAIL UP TO
NICKEL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN TREE
LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE
HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
439 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     HAIL             PONCHATOULA             30.44N 90.44W
06/06/2011  M1.00 INCH       TANGIPAHOA         LA   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL OBSERVED.

&&

11

LAZ060-061-063-069-062300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
455 PM CDT MON JUN 6 2011

...CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WEST AFFECTING ST. CHARLES
PARISH...JEFFERSON PARISH...PLAQUEMINES PARISH...

AT 448 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 9 MILES SOUTH OF BELLE CHASSE...OR
ABOUT 6 MILES EAST OF LAFITTE...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH.

THE CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND
AROUND...LAFITTE...JEAN LAFITTE AND BARATARIA

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW
AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR
BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

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