Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
824 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2011

.UPDATE...WE'VE BEEN TRACKING THE MCS MOVING OUT OF THE ARKLATEX.
AS EXPECTED, IT HAS SLOWED IT'S SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT...HOWEVER
SURFACE REPORTS SHOW THAT IT CONTINUES TO SEND OUTFLOWS AHEAD OF
THE COMPLEX. WILL UP THE POPS FOR THE LAKES AREA OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT TNITE TO 30 PERCENT. ALSO NOTED THE SEABREEZE
BOUNDARY LYING THROUGH SW LA ON OUR RADAR. COMBINED WITH A RAPIDLY
MOVING SHORTWAVE HEADING OUT SW OUT OF THE NATCHEZ AREA, WILL
MAINTAIN A SLT CHANCE OR 20 POPS FOR SW AND SCEN LA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TNITE. TEMPS LOOKING ON TRACK...ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 809 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2011/

AVIATION...
SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2011/

.RECORD BREAKING HEAT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...

DISCUSSION...
ALL OFFICIAL CLIMATE SITES WILL BREAK RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY WHEN
THE CLIMATE DATA IS RUN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR HERE AT LAKE
CHARLES WE HAVE BEEN UP TO 102F...WITH REMAINDER OF INLAND
OBSERVATIONS NEAR OR ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK. RADAR JUST NOW
BEGINNING TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS BREAKING THROUGH THE CAP.

FORECAST AREA IS BETWEEN SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS...AND A TUTT LOW OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR CONTINENTAL FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SOAR THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH MIXING TAKING PLACE TO DRAW DOWN SOME DRY AIR
ALOFT AND LOWER DEW POINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S...THAT APPARENT
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR THE AIR TEMPERATURES AND BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WAS ALSO NOTED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
COAST AND HAS NOT MADE MUCH PROGRESS TO THE WEST TODAY AS
EXPECTED...THEREFORE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS STAYED EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. STILL...WITH TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS THEY
AREA...COULD STILL SEE SOME POP UP SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...THEN DIMINISH A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNSET...SO WILL KEEP A 20 POP GOING THROUGH 06Z. AGAIN...ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT CAN GET GOING WILL HAVE THE CHANCE TO PRODUCE
STRONG TO SEVERE DOWN BURST WINDS.

OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...TUTT LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWEST AS
SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE AND BUILD BACK TO THE
EAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE WEAK SURFACE WAVE OVER SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA TO SLIDE OFF TO THE WEST AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH SCATTERED POPS FOR MAINLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THE EXPECTED MORE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS TODAY.

AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
PROVIDING A MORE TYPICAL DEEPER SOUTHEAST FLOW...WHICH WILL HELP
BRING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES DOWN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS. STILL DO
NOT SEE ANY REAL FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXCEPT
FOR DIURNAL HEATING AND SEA BREEZE...THEREFORE...WILL KEEP POPS AT
THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FROM TUESDAY ON WARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...IF WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DOES NOT OCCUR ON
MONDAY...IT WILL NOT LIKELY OCCUR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...ALLOWING EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.

OF NOTE...OZONE LEVELS ARE FORECAST BY TNRCC TO BE HIGH ENOUGH
THAT ANOTHER OZONE ACTION DAY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY FOR THE
GOLDEN TRIANGLE OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

RUA

MARINE...
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL
BECOME MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
SEAS SHOULD PREVAIL AWAY FROM ANY STRAY SHOWER ACTIVITY.

RUA

FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY.
VERY HOT AIR TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW DEW POINTS...WILL MAKE
FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT. ON TOP OF
THAT...MOST GROUND FUELS REMAIN VERY DRY...WITH TODAYS HEAT AND
SUNSHINE CONTINUING TO DRY THEM OUT. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH STRAY LIGHTNING
STRIKES...HOWEVER NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

SOMEWHAT BETTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS A LITTLE MORE
IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. THIS
WILL HELP LOWER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND RAISE MIN RH VALUES TO
AROUND 35 TO 40 PERCENT.

A REMINDER...BURN BANS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
AND LOUISIANA.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  97  73  94  73 /  20  30  20  20  20
KBPT  74  96  74  93  73 /  20  30  20  20  20
KAEX  71  99  72  97  71 /  20  30  20  20  20
KLFT  74  97  74  95  72 /  20  30  20  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 6 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     JEFFERSON.

     AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 6 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ORANGE.

     AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 6 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     HARDIN.

GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
552 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2011

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-061100-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
552 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL PROBABILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY LOW...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE. STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINED
WITH THE HUMIDITY...APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO
105 DEGREES DURING PEAK HEATING. INDIVIDUALS ARE URGED TO USE
EXTRA CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS AND DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS.

ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE DUE TO VERY DRY GROUND FUELS
AND LOW DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. BURN BANS ARE IN EFFECT
FOR THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA.

BACKWATER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER SAINT MARTIN
PARISH AS A RESULT OF RELEASES FROM THE MORGANZA SPILLWAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE OVERALL PROBABILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY LOW. HOWEVER...THE RISK OF AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE.

WITH THE ABSENCE OF ANY MEANINGFUL AREAWIDE RAINFALL...ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE DUE TO VERY DRY GROUND FUELS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-061100-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-
552 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL PROBABILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY LOW...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE. STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE OVERALL PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
VERY LOW. HOWEVER...THE RISK OF AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
PRODUCING STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WILL CONTINUE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1008 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2011

LAZ033-043-044-052-060415-
ST. LANDRY LA-LAFAYETTE LA-VERMILION LA-ACADIA LA-
1008 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ST. LANDRY...LAFAYETTE...
VERMILION AND ACADIA PARISHES UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

AT 1000 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CANKTON...MOVING SOUTHWEST
AT 20 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  DUSON BY 1020 PM...
  RAYNE AND RIDGE BY 1030 PM...
  INDIAN BAYOU BY 1045 PM...
  CROWLEY BY 1050 PM...
  LYONS POINT BY 1105 PM...

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING
UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3001 9229 3017 9248 3040 9212 3029 9204

K. KUYPER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1117 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2011

LAZ042>044-051-052-060515-
CAMERON LA-LAFAYETTE LA-VERMILION LA-ACADIA LA-JEFFERSON DAVIS LA-
1117 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CAMERON...LAFAYETTE...
VERMILION...ACADIA AND JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISHES UNTIL 1215 AM CDT...

AT 1112 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 2 MILES SOUTH OF LYONS POINT...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 40 MPH.

* THE CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  FORKED ISLAND BY 1125 PM...
  KLONDIKE BY 1130 PM...
  PECAN ISLAND BY 1145 PM...

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...PEA TO
NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN
TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A
SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 2962 9271 3001 9272 3047 9229 2977 9208
      2973 9214 2976 9214 2975 9216 2975 9218
      2972 9216 2956 9238

K. KUYPER