Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Jackson, KY

468 
WWUS53 KJKL 090022
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
822 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011

KYC025-129-237-090032-
/O.EXP.KJKL.SV.W.0053.000000T0000Z-110409T0030Z/
WOLFE KY-LEE KY-BREATHITT KY-
822 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN BREATHITT...
NORTHEASTERN LEE AND CENTRAL WOLFE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 830 PM
EDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

LAT...LON 3763 8328 3753 8349 3769 8365 3780 8352
TIME...MOT...LOC 0022Z 309DEG 34KT 3750 8323

$$

ABE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
302 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED

A NEARLY STATIONARY WARM FRONT IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. GOOD WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COUPLED WITH A SERIES OF
WEAK WAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SOME SHRA AND TSRA
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING MORE ACTIVITY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BNDRY BUT ACTIVITY COULD EXTEND INTO THE MID KY REGION. A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES TONIGHT WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY
THIS EVENING WILL PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR WAVES OF PCPN. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE AND HEATING COUPLED WITH THE LIFTING ACTION OF A SHORT WAVE
COULD CREATE MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER SUNSET... COOLING
EFFECTS FROM LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING WILL SUPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
AND THE LAST OF THE SHORT WAVES WILL TAKE THE PCPN OUT OF THE STATE.
NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SAT AFTN AND THEN EXIT
AGAIN SAT NITE WITH THE FRONTAL BNDRY FINALLY LIFTING FAR ENUF NORTH
FOR A TEMPORARY END TO THE THREAT OF PCPN. KY WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THRU OUT THIS EVENT AND SW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH TEMPS TO EVER HIGHER VALUES. EXPECTING LOWER 80S FOR
SAT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 60 TONIGHT AND IN THE LOWER 60S SAT
NIGHT.

QUICK UPDATE TO THIS FCST TO INCLUDE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR
ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY UNTIL 9 PM. AIRMASS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE
AND EXPECTING A SHORT WAVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY TO WAVE THAT BNDRY
INTO OUR AREA AND ADD THE ADDITIONAL LIFT TO INITIATE STORMS.

.LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...UPDATED

FOCUS FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD CENTERS AROUND
THE DEEP TROF CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE WEST COAST. LATEST MODEL
SUITE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT.

WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY WITH POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING
WARMTH AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SHARPENS IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROF. LATEST ROUND OF MOS IS STILL
SELLING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS. NOT QUITE
READY TO BITE DOWN ON THAT JUST YET AND WILL WAIT TO SEE ONE MORE
ROUND OF DRAMATIC HIGHS COME IN...BUT FOR NOW HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS A 50KT
LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS RAMPING UP AHEAD OF THE TROF. CURRENT CONSENSUS
THEN HAS THE SFC LOW AROUND THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT
SWINGING THRU EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM LATE MORNING THRU EARLY
EVENING...AND HAVE CENTERED HIGHEST POPS AROUND 18Z FOR THE AREA.
CONCERNING THE SEVERE THREAT...SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA WITH AROUND 1000J/KG
AND LI/S IN THE -4 TO -6 C RANGE. WITH THE POTENTIALLY QLCS NATURE
OF THE FRONT AND NEARLY VERTICAL ISENTROPIC SURFACES...WOULD EXPECT
THE BIGGEST THREAT TO BE DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE AS
IT MOVES THRU OUR AREA. WITH THE 700MB TROF LAGGING BEHIND THE
FRONT...HAVE KEPT LOW END CHANCE POPS THRU THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS ON MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY POST FRONTAL SHOWERS INTO THE DAY
ON TUESDAY.

REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS RELATIVELY BENIGN AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BENEATH A TRANSIENT FLAT RIDGE THRU
WEDNESDAY...BY WHICH TIME THE EURO...GFS...AND GEM ALL START TAKING
THEIR OWN APPROACH WITH THE NEXT WAVE CROSSING THE PLAINS. THIS FAR
OUT...OPTED TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH THE INHERITED GRIDS AND THE
NEIGHBORS AND WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ROUND OUT THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/

A NEARLY STATIONARY WARM FRONT IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. GOOD WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COUPLED WITH A SERIES OF
WEAK WAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SOME SHRA AND TSRA
THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL REMAIN AROUND THE BKN030 LEVEL WILD VSBY
SHOULD REMAIN VFR. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TSRA COULD BRIEFLY LOWER VSBY TO
MVFR/IFR RANGE THE TIME OF OCCURANCE WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO PUT IN
THE TAF AT THIS TIME. BETTER CHANCE FOR TSRA AT JKL THAN AT LOZ/SME.
AFTER SUNSET THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD CALM DOWN WITH CIGS BEGINNING TO
LOWER WITH TEMPS COOLING AND DEW PTS BECOMING NEARLY SATURATED. BY
MIDNIGHT...EXPECT SOME VALLEY FOG TO BEGIN FORMING AS WINDS GO CALM
AND COOL AIR SETTLES INTO THE VALLEYS. THIS WILL DROP VSBY AT LOZ/SME
WHILE JKL SHOULD REMAIN VFR. CURRENT THOUGHTS ON HOW FAR THE VSBY
WILL DROP WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF PCPN RECEIVED AND CURRENTLY
ONLY FORECASTING 2 MILE RESTRICTION AT LOZ/SME... ALTHOUGH SOME OF
OUR DEEPER VALLEYS COULD SEE VERY DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

SHORT TERM...DUSTY
LONG TERM...MB
AVIATION...DUSTY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
330 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-092230-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
330 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY
THREAT. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO CALL IN ANY INSTANCES OF WIND DAMAGE...
LARGE HAIL...FUNNEL CLOUDS OR TORNADOES TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THIS EVENING.

DUSTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
711 PM EDT FRI APR 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0709 PM     HAIL             STANTON                 37.85N 83.86W
04/08/2011  E1.00 INCH       POWELL             KY   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

TBREWER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
712 PM EDT FRI APR 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     HAIL             CLAY CITY               37.86N 83.93W
04/08/2011  M1.00 INCH       POWELL             KY   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

TBREWER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
715 PM EDT FRI APR 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0706 PM     HAIL             STANTON                 37.85N 83.86W
04/08/2011  E1.25 INCH       POWELL             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

TBREWER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
719 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011

KYZ107-119-120-090000-
JOHNSON-MARTIN-PIKE-
719 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 800
PM EDT FRIDAY EVENING...

   EASTERN JOHNSON...
   MARTIN AND
   EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL PIKE.

AT 719 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BAKER...OR
NEAR PAINTSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...WELLS CHAPEL
AROUND 725 PM EDT...DAVISPORT AROUND 730 PM EDT...DELONG AROUND 735
PM EDT...PRINCE AROUND 740 PM EDT...MCCLURE AROUND 745 PM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP
TO 1 INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FRIDAY
EVENING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

GEOGERIAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
724 PM EDT FRI APR 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0716 PM     HAIL             2 N PAINTSVILLE         37.85N 82.81W
04/08/2011  E0.50 INCH       JOHNSON            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TBREWER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
752 PM EDT FRI APR 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0752 PM     HAIL             1 N CAMPTON             37.75N 83.55W
04/08/2011  E1.75 INCH       WOLFE              KY   PUBLIC

&&

ABE