Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Jackson, KY

425 
WWUS53 KJKL 082018
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
418 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011

KYC011-063-165-175-205-082045-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0043.000000T0000Z-110408T2045Z/
ROWAN KY-BATH KY-ELLIOTT KY-MORGAN KY-MENIFEE KY-
418 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN
MENIFEE...NORTHERN MORGAN...SOUTHWESTERN ELLIOTT...EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN BATH AND SOUTHERN ROWAN COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 415 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
YALE...OR 8 MILES SOUTH OF MOREHEAD...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WEST LIBERTY...SANDY HOOK...BIG WOODS...BANGOR...DAN...LICK FORK...
  EBON...PELFREY...PARAGON...CRANEY...KELLACEY...ARNETT...ZAG...
  HAMM...LEISURE...TWENTYSIX...BLAZE...DEHART...WAGNER AND YOCUM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3801 8357 3816 8351 3814 8309 3789 8315
      3794 8342
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 284DEG 30KT 3807 8346
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

BECKER

438 
WWUS53 KJKL 082033
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
433 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011

KYC011-165-205-082041-
/O.CAN.KJKL.SV.W.0043.000000T0000Z-110408T2045Z/
ROWAN KY-BATH KY-MENIFEE KY-
433 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MENIFEE...EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN BATH AND SOUTHERN ROWAN COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 3813 8310 3789 8315 3793 8336 3805 8338
      3814 8322
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 284DEG 30KT 3804 8332

$$

KYC063-175-082045-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0043.000000T0000Z-110408T2045Z/
ELLIOTT KY-MORGAN KY-
433 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
MORGAN AND SOUTHWESTERN ELLIOTT COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 427 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
LEISURE...OR 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MOREHEAD...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SANDY HOOK...YOCUM...BLAIRS MILLS...WRIGLEY...LICKING RIVER...
  POMP...LYTTEN...LICK BRANCH...LITTLE SANDY...LENOX...STEELE...
  ELKFORK AND ELAMTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3813 8310 3789 8315 3793 8336 3805 8338
      3814 8322
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 284DEG 30KT 3804 8332
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

BECKER

490 
WWUS53 KJKL 082047
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
447 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011

KYC063-175-082056-
/O.EXP.KJKL.SV.W.0043.000000T0000Z-110408T2045Z/
ELLIOTT KY-MORGAN KY-
447 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN MORGAN AND
SOUTHWESTERN ELLIOTT COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN 
MORGAN AND SOUTHERN ELLIOTT COUNTIES UNTIL 5:15 PM EDT.

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT.

LAT...LON 3813 8310 3789 8315 3793 8336 3805 8338
      3814 8322
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 284DEG 30KT 3793 8333

$$

BECKER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
302 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED

A NEARLY STATIONARY WARM FRONT IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. GOOD WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COUPLED WITH A SERIES OF
WEAK WAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SOME SHRA AND TSRA
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING MORE ACTIVITY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BNDRY BUT ACTIVITY COULD EXTEND INTO THE MID KY REGION. A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES TONIGHT WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY
THIS EVENING WILL PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR WAVES OF PCPN. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE AND HEATING COUPLED WITH THE LIFTING ACTION OF A SHORT WAVE
COULD CREATE MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER SUNSET... COOLING
EFFECTS FROM LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING WILL SUPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
AND THE LAST OF THE SHORT WAVES WILL TAKE THE PCPN OUT OF THE STATE.
NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SAT AFTN AND THEN EXIT
AGAIN SAT NITE WITH THE FRONTAL BNDRY FINALLY LIFTING FAR ENUF NORTH
FOR A TEMPORARY END TO THE THREAT OF PCPN. KY WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THRU OUT THIS EVENT AND SW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH TEMPS TO EVER HIGHER VALUES. EXPECTING LOWER 80S FOR
SAT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 60 TONIGHT AND IN THE LOWER 60S SAT
NIGHT.

QUICK UPDATE TO THIS FCST TO INCLUDE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR
ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY UNTIL 9 PM. AIRMASS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE
AND EXPECTING A SHORT WAVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY TO WAVE THAT BNDRY
INTO OUR AREA AND ADD THE ADDITIONAL LIFT TO INITIATE STORMS.

.LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...UPDATED

FOCUS FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD CENTERS AROUND
THE DEEP TROF CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE WEST COAST. LATEST MODEL
SUITE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT.

WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY WITH POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING
WARMTH AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SHARPENS IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROF. LATEST ROUND OF MOS IS STILL
SELLING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS. NOT QUITE
READY TO BITE DOWN ON THAT JUST YET AND WILL WAIT TO SEE ONE MORE
ROUND OF DRAMATIC HIGHS COME IN...BUT FOR NOW HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS A 50KT
LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS RAMPING UP AHEAD OF THE TROF. CURRENT CONSENSUS
THEN HAS THE SFC LOW AROUND THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT
SWINGING THRU EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM LATE MORNING THRU EARLY
EVENING...AND HAVE CENTERED HIGHEST POPS AROUND 18Z FOR THE AREA.
CONCERNING THE SEVERE THREAT...SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA WITH AROUND 1000J/KG
AND LI/S IN THE -4 TO -6 C RANGE. WITH THE POTENTIALLY QLCS NATURE
OF THE FRONT AND NEARLY VERTICAL ISENTROPIC SURFACES...WOULD EXPECT
THE BIGGEST THREAT TO BE DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE AS
IT MOVES THRU OUR AREA. WITH THE 700MB TROF LAGGING BEHIND THE
FRONT...HAVE KEPT LOW END CHANCE POPS THRU THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS ON MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY POST FRONTAL SHOWERS INTO THE DAY
ON TUESDAY.

REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS RELATIVELY BENIGN AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BENEATH A TRANSIENT FLAT RIDGE THRU
WEDNESDAY...BY WHICH TIME THE EURO...GFS...AND GEM ALL START TAKING
THEIR OWN APPROACH WITH THE NEXT WAVE CROSSING THE PLAINS. THIS FAR
OUT...OPTED TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH THE INHERITED GRIDS AND THE
NEIGHBORS AND WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ROUND OUT THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/

A NEARLY STATIONARY WARM FRONT IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. GOOD WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COUPLED WITH A SERIES OF
WEAK WAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SOME SHRA AND TSRA
THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL REMAIN AROUND THE BKN030 LEVEL WILD VSBY
SHOULD REMAIN VFR. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TSRA COULD BRIEFLY LOWER VSBY TO
MVFR/IFR RANGE THE TIME OF OCCURANCE WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO PUT IN
THE TAF AT THIS TIME. BETTER CHANCE FOR TSRA AT JKL THAN AT LOZ/SME.
AFTER SUNSET THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD CALM DOWN WITH CIGS BEGINNING TO
LOWER WITH TEMPS COOLING AND DEW PTS BECOMING NEARLY SATURATED. BY
MIDNIGHT...EXPECT SOME VALLEY FOG TO BEGIN FORMING AS WINDS GO CALM
AND COOL AIR SETTLES INTO THE VALLEYS. THIS WILL DROP VSBY AT LOZ/SME
WHILE JKL SHOULD REMAIN VFR. CURRENT THOUGHTS ON HOW FAR THE VSBY
WILL DROP WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF PCPN RECEIVED AND CURRENTLY
ONLY FORECASTING 2 MILE RESTRICTION AT LOZ/SME... ALTHOUGH SOME OF
OUR DEEPER VALLEYS COULD SEE VERY DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

SHORT TERM...DUSTY
LONG TERM...MB
AVIATION...DUSTY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
330 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-092230-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
330 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY
THREAT. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO CALL IN ANY INSTANCES OF WIND DAMAGE...
LARGE HAIL...FUNNEL CLOUDS OR TORNADOES TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THIS EVENING.

DUSTY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
351 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011

KYZ060-106-108-082030-
MENIFEE-MORGAN-WOLFE-
351 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 430
PM EDT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

   SOUTHWESTERN MORGAN...
   SOUTHERN MENIFEE AND
   NORTHERN WOLFE.

AT 351 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TABOR...OR
NEAR FRENCHBURG...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FRIDAY
EVENING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

ABE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
354 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011

KYZ050>052-106-082030-
ROWAN-BATH-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-
354 PM EDT FRI APR 8 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 430
PM EDT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

   SOUTHERN ROWAN...
   SOUTHEASTERN BATH...
   EXTREME EAST CENTRAL MONTGOMERY AND
   NORTHWESTERN MORGAN.

AT 354 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PRESTON...OR
NEAR OWINGSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FRIDAY
EVENING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

ABE