Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Jackson, KY

692 
WWUS53 KJKL 042003
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
403 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011

KYC011-069-173-205-042015-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0027.000000T0000Z-110404T2015Z/
FLEMING KY-ROWAN KY-BATH KY-MONTGOMERY KY-
403 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MONTGOMERY...
BATH...ROWAN AND FLEMING COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 358 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WYOMING...OR 7 MILES
NORTHEAST OF OWINGSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 75 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL MAY
ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE DAMAGING WINDS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WALTZ...TRIPLETT...CRANSTON AND HAYS CROSSING AROUND 410 PM EDT.
  VALE...ELLIOTTVILLE...WAGNER STORE AND WAGNER AROUND 415 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3850 8359 3844 8358 3842 8350 3815 8321
      3796 8400 3797 8400 3833 8385 3848 8384
      3853 8366
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 248DEG 65KT 3826 8359
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 0.75IN

$$

ABE

781 
WWUS53 KJKL 042015
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
415 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011

KYC011-069-173-205-042025-
/O.EXP.KJKL.SV.W.0027.000000T0000Z-110404T2015Z/
FLEMING KY-ROWAN KY-BATH KY-MONTGOMERY KY-
415 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MONTGOMERY...BATH...ROWAN AND
FLEMING COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR
PROPERTY...HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3850 8359 3844 8358 3842 8350 3815 8321
      3796 8400 3797 8400 3833 8385 3848 8384
      3853 8366
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 248DEG 65KT 3826 8359

$$

ABE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
206 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...UPDATED

SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF 1730Z HAS THE COLD FRONT JUST CROSSING INTO
WESTERN KENTUCKY WITH THE ASSOCIATED LINE OF STORMS QUICKLY
APPROACHING I-75 WITH ONSET IN JUST 1 TO 2 HOURS. WINDS REMAIN STRONG
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. CONTINUING WITH A 3 PM TO 4
PM TIMING FOR CROSSING INTO THE JKL COUNTY WARNING AREA. AT THIS
TIME...THERE IS STILL SOME PEAKS OF SUN IN OUR EASTERN CWA. THIS HAS
ALLOWED SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FAVORABLE FOR
SOME INTENSIFICATION TO THE APPROACHING LINE OF STORMS.
THEREFORE...WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. SOME GOOD SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT THIS
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO THE TORNADO THREAT CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE NO SO ABUNDANT INSTABILITY...EXPECT THE STRONGER
STORMS TO BE EARLIER IN THE DAY.

WITH PWATS OF 1.2 TO 1.4 APPROACHING THE AREA...SOME QUICK HEAVY
RAINS WILL STILL BE LIKELY. THIS STORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OR
PRODUCING AROUND AN INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AROUND 03Z WITH WINDS SLACKING OFF SHORTLY AFTER. WHILE SOME SHOWERS
WILL STILL BE AROUND BEHIND THE FRONT...THINK THERE WILL BE A
DEFINITE ENDING TO PRECIP BY TUESDAY NOON.

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...UPDATED

THE MODELS THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE AND LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ALOFT ADVERTISING A
PATTERN CHANGE THAT WILL FAVOR RIDGING IN THE SOUTHEAST AND
TROUGHING TO THE WEST. AS SUCH...THE EASTERN TROUGH WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING THE PATTERN TO FLATTEN AND BECOME
MORE RIDGE-LIKE OVER THE MIDWEST AND EAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
THE RIDGE THEN HOLDS ITS OWN OVERHEAD INTO THURSDAY BEFORE
AMPLIFYING AND STRENGTHENING LOCALLY IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE TROUGH
DIVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN OUT WEST. AT THIS POINT THE MODEL
AGREEMENT STARTS TO WANE WITH THE GFS TAKING A BATCH OF ENERGY OUT
AHEAD OF THE WESTERN TROUGH AND INTO THE MIDWEST...THURSDAY NIGHT
AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY...THAT WILL FLATTEN THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE RIDGE WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THIS ENERGY AND ITS AFFECT
ON THE RIDGE MUCH LESS SUBSTANTIAL. AS THE MAIN TROUGH SETTLES DEEP
INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...ENERGY PACKETS WILL SWEEP NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY JUST ABOVE THE RIDGE
LATER FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. THE RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE SOME
MODICUM OF PROTECTION FROM CONVECTION THROUGHOUT EAST KENTUCKY INTO
THE WEEKEND...BUT ON THE FLIP SIDE ITS NORTHERN EXTENT WILL ALSO
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL MCS ACTIVITY...ANY OF WHICH COULD
BRUSH SOUTH AND INTO EAST KENTUCKY. LATER INTO THE WEEKEND THE UPPER
TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL START TO WORK ITS WAY EAST AND LIKEWISE SEND
MORE ENERGY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS TROUGH IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
THE LATEST GFS THAN THE PREFERRED EARLIER ECMWF. FOLLOWING THE
SLOWER SOLUTION...THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD HOLD OVER EAST KENTUCKY
INTO MONDAY...THOUGH THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE IMPINGING ON THE AREA
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST...MONDAY. FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
FORECAST...ESSENTIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK...HAVE GONE WITH AN EVENLY BLENDED SOLUTION FROM THE GFS AND
ECMWF FOLLOWED BY A LARGER LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT MONDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WARM AND LATE SPRING-LIKE PATTERN
WITH A DIURNAL COMPONENT TO POP CHANCES FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
FORECAST AS MOST SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
NATION ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE STORM TRACK AND A DEVELOPING BOUNDARY
WILL BE FOUND FURTHER TO THE NORTH...CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. A
PASSING SFC WAVE SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH LITTLE IMPACT
TO THE AREA OTHER THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
BY MIDDAY THURSDAY THE SOUTHEAST HIGH WILL HAVE WEAKENED AND MOVED
EAST ALLOWING FOR A RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME...GENERAL LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF CONVECTION
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY THURSDAY...
THOUGH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA BY
FRIDAY MORNING AND WARRANTS A SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION. IN THE
WARM AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF THIS STRENGTHENING
BOUNDARY...MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. EVEN SO...THE BULK
OF THE AREA WILL PROBABLY STAY DRY...EXCEPT IF A DECENT MCS IS ABLE
TO DEVELOP AND IGNORE THE MEAGER PROTECTION OFFERED BY THE UPPER
RIDGE AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE. SINCE MCS ACTIVITY IS HARD TO TIME
THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST HAVE HAD TO RELUCTANTLY INCLUDE LOW
CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED. LATER
ON FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...THE EASTWARD DRIFTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL SPAWN A SFC LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND A COLD
FRONT FROM THIS MAY THREATEN THE AREA ON MONDAY. WITH CONFIDENCE IN
THIS SPECIFIC SOLUTION RATHER LOW WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF
CONVECTION AND TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL.

FOR TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY CONCURRED WITH THE NUMBERS FROM HPC AND
ADDED MAINLY TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS TO THEM AT NIGHT...
ANTICIPATING A FAIRLY NORMAL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT EACH
NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT THE MEX NUMBERS UNTIL
THERE APPEARS MORE DEFINITIVE AGREEMENT ON THE SUB SYNOPTIC FEATURES
THAT WOULD AFFECT THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/

WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WERE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND GUSTING TO 25 TO
30 KNOTS AS OF 16Z. THE COLD FRONT WAS STILL OUT WEST JUST CROSSING
THE IL/KY STATE LINE WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT INTO WESTERN KY AND CENTRAL IN. STILL EXPECTING INCREASE IN
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND LINE OF STORMS BY 18Z
TO 20Z. THEREFORE...EXPRESSED THAT IN THE TAFS WITH A SLIGHTLY SOONER
ARRIVAL TIME FOR LOZ AND SME. PRETTY MUCH MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS
WILL LAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR BY 03Z TONIGHT WITH THE
ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA
BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
334 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>087-104-106>117-119-120-
052245-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-ELLIOTT-
MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-OWSLEY-PERRY-
CLAY-LESLIE-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON...
SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN...
BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...INEZ...PIKEVILLE
334 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 94 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SOME
STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY INSTANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER
THIS EVENING.

KYZ088-118-052245-
HARLAN-LETCHER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARLAN...WHITESBURG
334 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 94 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 50 MPH THIS EVENING ON EXPOSED HIGH
ELEVATION RIDGES...AND UP TO 45 MPH IN THE VALLEYS THIS EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SOME
STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY INSTANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER
THIS EVENING.

AR/SHALLENBERGER