Severe Thunderstorm Warning 234, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
351 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED

A SURFACE COLD FRONT...ALIGNED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL
KENTUCKY WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A BROKEN
LINE OF CONVECTION HAS FIRED UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH A FEW CELLS
ROTATING AND BRINGING A SEVERE THREAT. SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AMPLE THROUGH DUSK...KEEPING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED THREAT OF SEVERE
GOING ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE HEATING IS LOST...EXPECT AN OVERALL
DECREASE IN INTENSITY.

THE STACKED LOW CURRENTLY SPIRALING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND ITS
ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP A THREAT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

THE STACKED SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE FAR ENOUGH AWAY BY SATURDAY TO
ALLOW FOR A DRY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING WORKING IN
AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING AT THE SURFACE.

A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS WELL AS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TOWARDS DAWN.

FOR TEMPERATURES...STUCK CLOSER TO NAM NUMBERS...GENERALLY A NICE
BREAK FROM THE HUMIDITY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

.LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...UPDATED

THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS...00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF...AND THE LATEST HPC
GUIDANCE ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING DAYS 4-7 OF THE
FORECAST. THE CONSENSUS IS FOR A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES AND
EVENTUALLY A SLUGGISH FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THAT
BEING SAID...USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS TO CONSTRUCT AN OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION...CLOUD COVER...AND QPF. THE LATEST GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS
ARE ACTUALLY DEPICTING PRETTY GOOD CAPE PROFILES...WITH 2000-3000J/KG
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEING
THAT FAR OUT...WILL NOT JUMP ON THAT BAND WAGON JUST YET. FOR NOW
WILL SAY THAT IT LOOKS LIKE...BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...THAT
INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION AND MAINTENANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK.

WENT WITH A DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. DECIDED TO KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE...AS THE BOUNDARY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
BECOME VERY ELONGATED FROM WEST TO EAST...AND WASHES OUT A BIT. ALSO
OF NOTE...IS A LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET BEING DEPICTED IN
THE LATEST MODELS...WHICH WOULD HINDER SURFACE MOISTURE RECOVERY A
BIT. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE KEPT DRY FOR NOW AS THE MODELS
ARE KEEPING PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA AND BRINGING A LARGE RIDGE OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED THE TREND OF COOLER THAN MEXMOS
NUMBERS. THE LATEST HPC GUIDANCE ACTUALLY LOOKED PRETTY GOOD IN THIS
REGARD...SO ANY ADJUSTMENTS MADE WERE TOWARD THOSE NUMBERS. A
RECURRING TREND WITH THE MOS TEMPERATURES HAS BEEN TO WAY UNDER
FORECAST DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES...THEREBY LEADING TO HIGHER THAN
REASONABLE MAX TEMPERATURES. DEWPOINTS WERE INCREASED ACROSS THE
BOARD FOR SEVERAL PERIODS IN THE EXTENDED TO REFLECT THE
AFOREMENTIONED TREND. ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINDS AS PER
THE LATEST MODEL DATA.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/

CONVECTION HAS INITIATED...MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY...AND
HAS REMAINED SCATTERED IN AREAL COVERAGE THUS FAR. AS THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO APPROACH...EXPECT COVERAGE TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. HAVE
MAINTAINED A TEMPO GROUP OF MVFR TSRA FOR ALL THREE SITES BETWEEN 20
AND 00Z. THEREAFTER...SOME MVFR STRATOCU MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH THIS CONTINUES TO BE IN QUESTION. IF
THIS DECK WERE TO FORM...IT WILL MIX OUT BY THE MID-MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO AROUND 20 KTS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THESE WILL VEER AROUND TO THE WEST AND
DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
417 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-241100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
417 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

...TORNADO WATCH 541 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...AND
AGAIN FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HEAVY RAINFALL AND ANY INCIDENTS OF
SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY.

GEOGERIAN

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
415 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

KYZ104-106-107-232045-
ELLIOTT-JOHNSON-MORGAN-
415 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 445
PM EDT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

   SOUTHERN ELLIOTT...
   EAST CENTRAL MORGAN AND
   NORTHWESTERN JOHNSON.

AT 415 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MOON...OR 9
MILES SOUTHEAST OF SANDY HOOK...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...KEATON AROUND
420 PM EDT...FLATGAP AROUND 425 PM EDT...AND WINIFRED AROUND 430 PM
EDT.

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE
INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

GREIF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
455 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

KYZ119-232130-
MARTIN-
455 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTY THROUGH 530
PM EDT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

   NORTHERN MARTIN.

AT 456 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST
OF WELLS...OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF INEZ...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...JOB AROUND 505
PM EDT...CALF CREEK AROUND 510 PM EDT...AND HODE AROUND 515 PM EDT.

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE
INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

GREIF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
513 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

KYZ083-084-232200-
WAYNE-MCCREARY-
513 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 600
PM EDT THURSDAY EVENING...

   SOUTHERN WAYNE AND
   SOUTHWESTERN MCCREARY.

AT 513 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF SUNNYBROOK...OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF ALBANY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...SUNNYBROOK
AROUND 530 PM EDT...HIDALGO AROUND 535 PM EDT...SLICKFORD AROUND 540
PM EDT...MOUNT PISGAH AROUND 545 PM EDT...AND BURFIELD AROUND 550 PM
EDT.

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE
INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

GREIF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
538 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

KYZ044-051-052-232245-
FLEMING-ROWAN-BATH-
538 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 645
PM EDT THURSDAY EVENING...

   FLEMING...
   NORTHERN ROWAN AND
   NORTH CENTRAL BATH.

AT 539 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF COWAN...OR 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FLEMINGSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...COWAN AROUND
550 PM EDT...PECKS RIDGE AROUND 555 PM EDT...TILTON AROUND 600 PM
EDT...POPLAR PLAINS AROUND 610 PM EDT...AND GODDARD AROUND 615 PM
EDT.

RESIDENTS CAN EXPECT UP TO ONE INCH OF RAIN...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50
MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

GREIF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
554 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

KYZ080-085-086-116-232245-
LAUREL-WHITLEY-CLAY-KNOX-
554 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 645
PM EDT THURSDAY EVENING...

   WEST CENTRAL CLAY...
   SOUTHERN LAUREL...
   NORTHWESTERN KNOX AND
   NORTHWESTERN WHITLEY.

AT 554 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HOLLY BAY REC.
AREA...OR 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LONDON...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...KEAVY AROUND
600 PM EDT...DORTHAE AROUND 605 PM EDT...LILY AROUND 610 PM
EDT...MCHARGUE AROUND 615 PM EDT...AND TUTTLE AROUND 620 PM EDT.

RESIDENTS CAN EXPECT UP TO ONE INCH OF RAIN...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50
MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

GREIF