Severe Thunderstorm Warning 226, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
332 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED

SLOWLY EVOLVING PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRUDGES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE GRADUALLY FILLING. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
TRACK ACROSS THE STATE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
STALLING JUST TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE TROUBLE IS TIMING THESE WAVES
AS THEY WILL BE FORCED BY ILL DEFINED SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN A
RELATIVELY FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE SPAWNING
THE CURRENT CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST
THIS EVENING PROBABLY ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS
THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOWEVER AND WILL ADVERTISE AN INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL THEN PIVOT ACROSS THE STATE WITH A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS OCCURS IN TANDEM WITH THE
SURFACE FRONT EDGING THROUGH THE AREA SO EXPECT NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE DECREASING IN
COVERAGE SOME OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL THEN
PUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
SHORTWAVES WILL ZIP BY UNDERNEATH THE PARENT UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH
SO CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM EITHER PERIOD.

WE WILL REMAIN IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA FROM SPC THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PULSE TYPE STORMS WILL BE THE CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE A
THREAT FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION BECOMES POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY
GIVEN THE ABNORMALLY STRONG UPPER SYSTEM...AND NEGATIVE TILT TO THE
TROUGH. THE QUESTION WILL BE IN HOW MUCH WE CAN DESTABILIZE AS TOO
MUCH ONGOING SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL LIMIT OUR
ABILITY TO DESTABILZE. DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FEED NORTHWARD
INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE FRONT WITH PWATS APPROACHING
2 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THUS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
REMAIN A CONCERN. BEHIND THE FRONT...PWATS CRASH BUT THE DRIER MID
LEVEL AIRMASS...LOW WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AND STRONG WIND FIELD WILL
MEAN A CONTINUED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING.

MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIP/CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP OUR HIGHS IN THE 80S...WHILE LOWS REMAIN IN THE 60S TO
NEAR 70.

.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...UPDATED

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAJOR FEATURES FOR THE
EXTENDED. THE ECMWF BEGINS FRI MORNING WITH THE SFC LOW A BIT
FARTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS BUT THE STATIONARY BNDRY IS GENERALLY
LOCATED EAST/WEST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH. THIS BNDRY IS NOT AS
ACTIVE WITH THE ECMWF AS THE GFS BUT THIS IS A NORMAL BIAS FOR THE
GFS. HAVE OPTED TO BLEND THE PCPN COVERAGE AND VALUES BETWEEN THE
TWO WHICH ALSO BLENDS FAIRLY WELL WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS FOR MY
NEIGHBORS. LOW PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE OKLA PANHANDLE BY SAT
MORNING WHICH STARTS ANOTHER IN THE PAST SERIES OF SLOW MOVING WARM
FRONTS ACROSS ERN KY. BY SAT AFTERNOON THE GULF IS WIDE OPEN WHICH
BLANKETS ALMOST THE ENTIRE SE QUADRANT OF THE CONUS WITH PCPN.
EXPECT ANY SHRA/TSRA TO BE SLOW MOVERS AND WITH THE LIKELY COPIOUS
MOISTURE AVAILABLE... COULD BE SOME HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STORMS. STORMS WILL LIKELY VARY DIURNALLY WITH THE HEAVIEST PEAK
DURING THE AFTERNOON HEATING EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO YIELD AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN PCPN WILL
LIKELY BE PRESENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
BE NEARLY CONSTANT AND ONLY RANGE FROM AROUND 80 ON FRI TO THE MID
80S BY TUE. LOW TEMPS WILL ALSO LIKELY INCREASE FROM THE LOWER 60S
ON SAT TO THE UPPER 60S BY TUE MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THEIR SCATTERED
NATURE WILL PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN A VCTS/CB MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY THEN BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE RESPONSIBLE SHORTWAVE
PASSES OFF TO OUR EAST...HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WILL AGAIN HANDLE THIS WITH A PROLONGED GENERIC VCTS
MENTION UNTIL TIMING AND IMPACT BECOME MORE CERTAIN. THE ONE WILD
CARD IS FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND HAVE LEFT THIS OUT OF THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...PATCHY FOG MAY BECOME A PROBLEM IF WE CAN
GET ANY PROLONGED CLEARING OVERNIGHT. THE LAST ISSUE OF CONCERN IS
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 15 KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...DUSTY
AVIATION...ABE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1056 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-221800-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
1056 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
COULD BECOME SEVERE AS WELL...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HEAVY RAINFALL OR ANY INCIDENTS OF
SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY.

JP/ABE

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
633 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

KYZ044-212300-
FLEMING-
633 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTY THROUGH 700
PM EDT TUESDAY EVENING...

   NORTHWESTERN FLEMING.

AT 632 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST
OF FAIRVIEW...OR 17 MILES NORTHEAST OF CYNTHIANA...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS POSSIBLY AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
NEPTON AROUND 640 PM EDT...AND MOUNT CARMEL AROUND 655 PM EDT.

RESIDENTS SHOULD GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
IN THESE AREAS.

GREIF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
650 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

KYZ068-079-080-084>086-212345-
ROCKCASTLE-PULASKI-LAUREL-WHITLEY-MCCREARY-KNOX-
650 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
THROUGH 745 PM EDT TUESDAY EVENING...

   SOUTHEASTERN ROCKCASTLE...
   SOUTHEASTERN PULASKI...
   LAUREL...
   WESTERN KNOX...
   WHITLEY AND
   EASTERN MCCREARY.

AT 649 PM EDT...SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES EAST OF SOMERSET TO 9 MILES EAST OF
WHITLEY CITY TO ONEIDA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...MOUNT VICTORY
AROUND 655 PM EDT...DUCKRUN AROUND 700 PM EDT...YOUNGS CREEK AROUND
705 PM EDT...BLOSS AROUND 710 PM EDT...AND CEDARVILLE AROUND 715 PM
EDT.

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE
INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS.
MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO DRIVE CAREFULLY.

GREIF