Alert archive / Kentucky / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2011

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 222, NWS Jackson, KY

June 21, 2011Leslie County, Perry County, Kentucky

NWS Jackson, KY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 21, 2011, 2:40 PM EDT for Leslie County, Perry County, Kentucky. It was in force for 25 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 21, 2011, 2:40 PM EDT (18:40 UTC)
Expired
Jun 21, 2011, 3:05 PM EDT
In force
25 min
Issued by
NWS Jackson, KY
Area
Storm-based polygon
Hail
1.0 in
Wind
60.0 mph

Counties Leslie County, KY, Perry County, KY

The radar

The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 48 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 6.7 hours before the alert went out and 257 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 12:00Z on 2011-06-21Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2237 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 12:00Z on 2011-06-21The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -49 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2237 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-49 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
911 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
10 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-49 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
2 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

971 
WUUS53 KJKL 211840
SVRJKL
KYC131-193-211930-
/O.NEW.KJKL.SV.W.0222.110621T1840Z-110621T1930Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
240 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EASTERN LESLIE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...
  SOUTHEASTERN PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 330 PM EDT

* AT 239 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
  CINDA...OR 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HYDEN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15
  MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CUTSHIN...SMILAX...YEADDISS AND BIG ROCK AROUND 245 PM EDT.
  WOOTON AND LEATHERWOOD AROUND 250 PM EDT.
  DALEY AROUND 255 PM EDT.
  FREW AROUND 300 PM EDT.
  AVAWAM AND SLEMP AROUND 305 PM EDT.
  VIPER AND DAISY AROUND 315 PM EDT.
  DIABLOCK...HAZARD AND CORNETTSVILLE AROUND 320 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...
WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3710 8345 3732 8316 3728 8312 3724 8312
      3724 8310 3724 8308 3719 8302 3718 8305
      3717 8304 3714 8306 3711 8305 3696 8330
TIME...MOT...LOC 1840Z 230DEG 14KT 3709 8329
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

GREIF
3 follow-up statements
502 
WWUS53 KJKL 211850
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
250 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

KYC131-193-211930-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0222.000000T0000Z-110621T1930Z/
PERRY KY-LESLIE KY-
250 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL
LESLIE AND EAST CENTRAL PERRY COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

AT 248 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
CUTSHIN...OR 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HYDEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  DALEY AROUND 255 PM EDT.
  FREW AROUND 300 PM EDT.
  VIPER AND DAISY AROUND 315 PM EDT.
  DIABLOCK...CORNETTSVILLE AND HAZARD AROUND 320 PM EDT.
  JEFF AROUND 325 PM EDT.
  VICCO AND BULAN AROUND 330 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3712 8329 3732 8316 3728 8312 3724 8312
      3724 8310 3724 8308 3719 8302 3718 8305
      3717 8304 3714 8306 3711 8305 3699 8329
TIME...MOT...LOC 1850Z 230DEG 14KT 3712 8325
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

GREIF
517 
WWUS53 KJKL 211859
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
259 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

KYC131-193-211930-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0222.000000T0000Z-110621T1930Z/
PERRY KY-LESLIE KY-
259 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL
LESLIE AND EAST CENTRAL PERRY COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

AT 256 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DALEY...OR 8 MILES EAST OF
HYDEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY THESE DAMAGING WINDS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  VIPER AND DAISY AROUND 315 PM EDT.
  CORNETTSVILLE AROUND 320 PM EDT.
  JEFF AROUND 325 PM EDT.
  VICCO AROUND 330 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3702 8325 3714 8324 3726 8313 3724 8312
      3724 8310 3724 8308 3719 8302 3718 8305
      3717 8304 3714 8306 3711 8305
TIME...MOT...LOC 1859Z 230DEG 14KT 3714 8322
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 0.75IN

$$

GREIF
514 
WWUS53 KJKL 211905
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
305 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

KYC131-193-211916-
/O.CAN.KJKL.SV.W.0222.000000T0000Z-110621T1930Z/
PERRY KY-LESLIE KY-
305 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL LESLIE AND EAST
CENTRAL PERRY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.

LAT...LON 3702 8325 3714 8324 3726 8313 3724 8312
      3724 8310 3724 8308 3719 8302 3718 8305
      3717 8304 3714 8306 3711 8305
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 230DEG 14KT 3716 8319

$$

GREIF

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 21, 1:40 PM EDT, 1 hour earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 21, 1:40 PM EDT, 1 hour before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
140 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/

UPPER RIDGE HAS POKED NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...A STRONG
SHORTWAVE IS ALREADY KICKING OFF CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL TN AND
WESTERN KY. THIS SHORTWAVE IS POISED TO PASS OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...DURING PEAK HEATING...AND WITH NO REAL CAP VISIBLE IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WE WILL BE INCREASING OUR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WITH A LATE MORNING UPDATE. SPC HAS INCLUDED THE ENTIRE AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE NOTING MODERATE CAPE VALUES AND MODEST WINDS
ALOFT POSING A RISK FOR SOME ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT AS WELL WITH PWATS AROUND 1.75
INCHES...ACTUALLY WETTER THAN YESTERDAY. STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING
ALONG THOUGH AT 15 TO 20 MPH BASED ON PROGGED STORM MOTIONS...SO
THAT SHOULD LIMIT ANY STORMS ABILITY TO DROP EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AT
ANY ONE LOCATION.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

EARLY THIS MORNING...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER
THE FL PENINSULA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO CENTRAL KY AND FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY
REGION TOWARD THE TN VALLEY REGION OVER THE RIDGE AND IN ADVANCE OF
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDED SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS
FROM A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE PLAINS. A SFC LOW WAS CENTERED
IN THE PLAINS REGION NEAR THE KS/NB BORDER. THE SFC WARM FRONT
EXTENDED EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THEN SE INTO
NORTHEASTERN KY AND THEN SE OVER THE EASTERN CWA NEAR THE KY/WV
BORDER AND THEN INTO THE CAROLINAS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE
GENERALLY THINNED OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THEY HAVE REMAINED MOST
PERSISTENT TO THE WEST OF JKL OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. EASTERN
VALLEYS HAVE DECOUPLED AND FOG HAS FORMED THERE. THIS SHOULD PERSIST
UNTIL AROUND DAWN AND THEN BEGIN TO LIFT...GENERALLY BEFORE THE START
OF THE TODAY PERIOD.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THAT WILL BE OVER THE REGION EARLY IN THE
DAY WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST BY AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE THE SHORTWAVE/
VORT MAX OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE
TN VALLEY AND ACROSS THE REGION NEAR OR JUST PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING
AND THIS COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTING EAST AND PLENTY
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAIN AND INITIAL DAYTIME
HEATING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. MODELS PROG LI IN THE -4 TO -6C RANGE WITH CAPE ON
THE ORDER OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. IN FACT...IF ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING
CAN OCCUR OR MORE WERE TO OCCUR THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD RESULT WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREATS. IN ADDITION...PW IN THE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE AND
RELATIVELY HIGH FREEZING LEVELS SHOULD LEAD TO PLENTY OF WARM RAIN
PROCESSES AND THIS COULD RESULT IN BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IF STORMS WERE TO TRAIN OR MOVE REPEATEDLY
OVER THE SAME AREAS. HAVE RAISED POPS FOR TODAY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE
AS THE 0Z WRF AND 0Z GFS AS WELL AS THE SREF MEAN ALL BRING QPF INTO
THE REGION. MOS GUIDANCE IS IN THE SCATTERED RANGE OR HIGHER AS IS
THE 21Z SREF POPS.

OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A CLOSED LOW
MOVING FROM THE PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA BUT THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS MAY NOT PASS EAST
OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS SHORT WAVES MOVE
DOWN ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TOWARD THE OH AND TN VALLEY REGIONS. IN SW
FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH...ADDITIONAL WEAK AND HARD TO TIME
SHORTWAVES WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE
DAY ON WED. AT THE SAME TIME...THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE SFC LOW ALSO TRACKING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY REGION AND ON INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE CWA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...AN EXTENDED PERIOD FOR CHANCES OF AT
LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...IF NOT PERIODS OF GREATER
COVERAGE SHOULD RESULT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THU. DRIER AIR...
PARTICULARLY AT THE LOW LEVELS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
PERIOD...BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MUCH LOWER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED EVENING. THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND POSSIBLY WEAKER LEAD SHORTWAVES
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS TO
GET INVOLVED FOR A WHILE SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF LIFT FOR CONVECTION
OF THE MOIST AIRMASS PROGGED TO BE IN PLACE DURING THAT TIME.

RECENT RAINFALL AND RECENT MOS GUIDANCE PERFORMANCE TRENDS ALL ARGUE
FOR GOING TO THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX T TODAY. INITIAL
SUNSHINE SHOULD LEAD TO PLENTY OF EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND THIS
COMBINED WITH ADVECTION OF A MORE MOIST AIRMASS INTO THE REGION AND
THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD LEAD TO A SUBSTANTIAL CU
FIELD DEVELOPING BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE.
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND GOOD COVERAGE OF PRECIP SHOULD SUPPRESS DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TODAY AND THEN
LOWER 80S ON WED.

.LONG TERM.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN UNSETTLED HEADING THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AS IT LOOKS PRESENTLY...A BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE KENTUCKY REGION FROM LATE IN
THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL MORE SHORTWAVES WILL LIKELY
PROGRESS THROUGH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...GENERATING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN
THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN AND UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL FEATURES...OPTING TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. GIVEN THE UNSETTLED NATURE OF THINGS...OPTED TO
GO COOLER FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS WELL...SIMILAR TO WHAT
WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. OBVIOUSLY...IF
QUIETER WEATHER PREVAILS AND LESS CLOUD COVER...WE COULD END UP
WARMER...BUT ODDS ARE THAT WE WILL KEEP SOME CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH
REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/...UPDATED

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THEIR SCATTERED
NATURE WILL PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN A VCTS/CB MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY THEN BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE RESPONSIBLE SHORTWAVE
PASSES OFF TO OUR EAST...HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WILL AGAIN HANDLE THIS WITH A PROLONGED GENERIC VCTS
MENTION UNTIL TIMING AND IMPACT BECOME MORE CERTAIN. THE ONE WILD
CARD IS FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND HAVE LEFT THIS OUT OF THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...PATCHY FOG MAY BECOME A PROBLEM IF WE CAN
GET ANY PROLONGED CLEARING OVERNIGHT. THE LAST ISSUE OF CONCERN IS
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 15 KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...JP/ABE
LONG TERM....KAS
AVIATION...ABE
Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 21, 10:56 AM EDT, 3 hours 44 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1056 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-221800-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
1056 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
COULD BECOME SEVERE AS WELL...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HEAVY RAINFALL OR ANY INCIDENTS OF
SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY.

JP/ABE

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 21, 9:04 AM EDT, 5 hours 36 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
904 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     FLOOD            4 S IRVINE              37.64N 83.97W
06/20/2011                   ESTILL             KY   911 CALL CENTER

            DRIVEWAYS OF SEVERAL RESIDENCES HAVE BEEN WASHED OUT INTO
            THE ROADWAY AT RED LICK.

0813 AM     FLASH FLOOD      KAYJAY                  36.74N 83.85W
06/20/2011                   KNOX               KY   911 CALL CENTER

            BRUSH CREEK WAS REPORTED TO BE OUT OF ITS BANKS AND
            CONTINUING TO FLOOD KY 225...HOMES AND OTHER ROADWAYS IN
            THE AREA.

0838 AM     FLOOD            MIDDLESBORO             36.61N 83.72W
06/20/2011                   BELL               KY   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL ROADS ARE STILL CLOSED IN AND NEAR MIDDLESBORO
            DUE TO FLOODING. MULTIPLE WATER RESCUES ARE ALSO UNDERWAY
            AT THIS TIME IN THE MIDDLESBORO VICINITY.

0900 AM     FLOOD            CAMPTON                 37.74N 83.55W
06/20/2011                   WOLFE              KY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            CULVERTS OVERFLOWING DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. WATER OVER
            ROADS AT WOLFE LAKE...ON 191 BETWEEN STILLWATER AND
            CAMPTON...PLUMMERS CREEK ROAD AND JOHNSON ROAD.

0900 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BULAN                   37.30N 83.17W
06/20/2011                   PERRY              KY   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            A COUPLE FEET OF WATER FLOWING OVER HWY 476 AT THE
            HARDBURLY EXIT. ALSO...BULAN-HINER ROAD CLOSED BY WATER
            OVER THE ROAD.

0915 AM     TSTM WND DMG     DONGOLA                 37.09N 82.84W
06/20/2011                   LETCHER            KY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            SEVERAL TREES DOWNED ON HWY 119 NEAR LITTLE COWAN CREEK.

1000 AM     FLASH FLOOD      JACKSON                 37.56N 83.38W
06/20/2011                   BREATHITT          KY   NEWSPAPER

            CAR DROVE INTO FLOOD WATERS NEAR THE BP STATION.

1000 AM     HAIL             NADA                    37.81N 83.72W
06/20/2011  M0.88 INCH       POWELL             KY   PUBLIC

1030 AM     FLASH FLOOD      JACKSON                 37.56N 83.38W
06/20/2011                   BREATHITT          KY   NEWSPAPER

            BRIDGE HOLLOW ROAD IMPASSABLE DUE TO FLASH FLOODING.

1045 AM     FLASH FLOOD      WATTS                   37.44N 83.31W
06/20/2011                   BREATHITT          KY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            FLASH FLOODING ALONG WATTS ROAD.

1045 AM     FLASH FLOOD      WAR CREEK               37.59N 83.49W
06/20/2011                   BREATHITT          KY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            HWY 541 AND MOST SIDE ROADS OFF OF HWY 541 ARE AFFECTED
            BY FLASH FLOODING.

1045 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 S JACKSON             37.53N 83.38W
06/20/2011                   BREATHITT          KY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            ROBINSON FORK CLOSED BY FLASH FLOODING.

1045 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 S YEADON              37.54N 83.46W
06/20/2011                   BREATHITT          KY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            BELCHER FORK ROAD IMPASSABLE DUE TO FLASH FLOOD.

1048 AM     FLOOD            ELKATAWA                37.56N 83.43W
06/20/2011                   BREATHITT          KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MILLERS BRANCH HAS LEFT IT/S BANKS AND IS AT THE BOTTOM
            OF THE BRIDGE GOING OVER HWY 52.

1100 AM     FLASH FLOOD      6 NW HAZARD             37.31N 83.27W
06/20/2011                   PERRY              KY   PUBLIC

            KNEE DEEP FLOWING WATER OVER PIGEON ROOST ROAD. RESIDENTS
            ARE STRANDED.

1110 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MEANS                   37.95N 83.76W
06/20/2011                   MENIFEE            KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HWY 460 CLOSED DUE TO FLASH FLOODING.

1130 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 N HAZARD              37.33N 83.20W
06/20/2011                   PERRY              KY   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            HARVEYTON ROAD CLOSED.

1130 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 NW HAZARD             37.30N 83.26W
06/20/2011                   PERRY              KY   911 CALL CENTER

            ROAD AT TYPO HAS BEEN CLOSED.

1130 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 NW HAZARD             37.30N 83.26W
06/20/2011                   PERRY              KY   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            LOWER SECOND CREEK RD. CLOSED.

1130 AM     FLASH FLOOD      9 NW HAZARD             37.35N 83.31W
06/20/2011                   PERRY              KY   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            16 MILE CREEK ROAD CLOSED.

0130 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BEATTYVILLE             37.58N 83.71W
06/20/2011                   LEE                KY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            BRIDGE WASHED OUT ON PAW PAW ROAD.

0230 PM     FLOOD            MIDDLESBORO             36.61N 83.72W
06/20/2011                   BELL               KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MANY RESIDENTALS AND COMMERCIAL LOCATIONS IN THE CITY ARE
            FLOODED.

&&

ABE
Local storm report, Jun 21, 9:14 AM EDT, 5 hours 26 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
914 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 AM     TSTM WND DMG     EAST BERNSTADT          37.19N 84.12W
06/20/2011                   LAUREL             KY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN.

0215 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E LONDON              37.13N 84.05W
06/20/2011                   LAUREL             KY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREES DOWN ON OLD WAY ROAD.

0300 AM     TSTM WND DMG     WASIOTO                 36.75N 83.69W
06/20/2011                   BELL               KY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREE DOWN ON HARDBELL STATION ROAD NEAR THE WASIOTO GOLF
            COURSE.

0310 AM     TSTM WND DMG     BIRDSEYE                36.74N 83.93W
06/20/2011                   KNOX               KY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREES DOWN ON HWY 1809.

0505 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ESE GOINS             36.69N 83.92W
06/20/2011                   WHITLEY            KY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            SIXTY TO NINETY TREES BLOWN DOWN ON HWY 92E NEAR THE KNOX
            COUNTY LINE.

0510 AM     FLASH FLOOD      KAYJAY                  36.74N 83.85W
06/20/2011                   KNOX               KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            *** 1 FATAL *** THREE TRAILERS WERE SWEPT OFF OF THEIR
            FOUNDATIONS. ONE MALE OCCUPANT DIED IN THE FLOOD. ANOTHER
            FEMALE OCCUPANT WAS RESCUED. FLOOD WATERS BLOCKED THE
            ROADS UNTIL AFTER 630 AM HAMPERING THE EMERGENCY
            RESPONSE.

0528 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MIDDLESBORO             36.61N 83.72W
06/20/2011                   BELL               KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS ROADS ARE UNDER WATER THROUGHOUT
            MIDDLESBORO...INCLUDING 35TH AND 19TH...AND 25A. SPOTTER
            ESTIMATES BETWEEN 3 AND 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN
            OVERNIGHT.

0540 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NW CHENOA             36.69N 83.89W
06/20/2011                   WHITLEY            KY   911 CALL CENTER

            MOTORISTS STRANDED IN THEIR CARS ALONG 92 E ABOUT 1 MILE
            FROM THE BELL CO LINE. DISPATCHER REPORTED RESCUES ARE IN
            PROGRESS.

0545 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MIDDLESBORO             36.61N 83.72W
06/20/2011                   BELL               KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ABOUT 4 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING ACROSS KY 25 E NEAR THE
            MALL. NUMEROUS ROADS THROUGHOUT TOWN ARE UNDER WATER.

0730 AM     FLOOD            4 S IRVINE              37.64N 83.97W
06/20/2011                   ESTILL             KY   911 CALL CENTER

            DRIVEWAYS OF SEVERAL RESIDENCES HAVE BEEN WASHED OUT INTO
            THE ROADWAY AT RED LICK.

0813 AM     FLASH FLOOD      KAYJAY                  36.74N 83.85W
06/20/2011                   KNOX               KY   911 CALL CENTER

            BRUSH CREEK WAS REPORTED TO BE OUT OF ITS BANKS AND
            CONTINUING TO FLOOD KY 225...HOMES AND OTHER ROADWAYS IN
            THE AREA.

0838 AM     FLOOD            MIDDLESBORO             36.61N 83.72W
06/20/2011                   BELL               KY   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL ROADS ARE STILL CLOSED IN AND NEAR MIDDLESBORO
            DUE TO FLOODING. MULTIPLE WATER RESCUES ARE ALSO UNDERWAY
            AT THIS TIME IN THE MIDDLESBORO VICINITY.

0900 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BULAN                   37.30N 83.17W
06/20/2011                   PERRY              KY   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            A COUPLE FEET OF WATER FLOWING OVER HWY 476 AT THE
            HARDBURLY EXIT. ALSO...BULAN-HINER ROAD CLOSED BY WATER
            OVER THE ROAD.

0900 AM     FLOOD            CAMPTON                 37.74N 83.55W
06/20/2011                   WOLFE              KY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            CULVERTS OVERFLOWING DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. WATER OVER
            ROADS AT WOLFE LAKE...ON 191 BETWEEN STILLWATER AND
            CAMPTON...PLUMMERS CREEK ROAD AND JOHNSON ROAD.

0915 AM     TSTM WND DMG     DONGOLA                 37.09N 82.84W
06/20/2011                   LETCHER            KY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            SEVERAL TREES DOWNED ON HWY 119 NEAR LITTLE COWAN CREEK.

1000 AM     HAIL             NADA                    37.81N 83.72W
06/20/2011  M0.88 INCH       POWELL             KY   PUBLIC

1000 AM     FLASH FLOOD      JACKSON                 37.56N 83.38W
06/20/2011                   BREATHITT          KY   NEWSPAPER

            CAR DROVE INTO FLOOD WATERS NEAR THE BP STATION.

1030 AM     FLASH FLOOD      JACKSON                 37.56N 83.38W
06/20/2011                   BREATHITT          KY   NEWSPAPER

            BRIDGE HOLLOW ROAD IMPASSABLE DUE TO FLASH FLOODING.

1045 AM     FLASH FLOOD      WAR CREEK               37.59N 83.49W
06/20/2011                   BREATHITT          KY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            HWY 541 AND MOST SIDE ROADS OFF OF HWY 541 ARE AFFECTED
            BY FLASH FLOODING.

1045 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 S YEADON              37.54N 83.46W
06/20/2011                   BREATHITT          KY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            BELCHER FORK ROAD IMPASSABLE DUE TO FLASH FLOOD.

1045 AM     FLASH FLOOD      WATTS                   37.44N 83.31W
06/20/2011                   BREATHITT          KY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            FLASH FLOODING ALONG WATTS ROAD.

1045 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 S JACKSON             37.53N 83.38W
06/20/2011                   BREATHITT          KY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            ROBINSON FORK CLOSED BY FLASH FLOODING.

1048 AM     FLOOD            ELKATAWA                37.56N 83.43W
06/20/2011                   BREATHITT          KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MILLERS BRANCH HAS LEFT IT/S BANKS AND IS AT THE BOTTOM
            OF THE BRIDGE GOING OVER HWY 52.

1100 AM     FLASH FLOOD      6 NW HAZARD             37.31N 83.27W
06/20/2011                   PERRY              KY   PUBLIC

            KNEE DEEP FLOWING WATER OVER PIGEON ROOST ROAD. RESIDENTS
            ARE STRANDED.

1110 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MEANS                   37.95N 83.76W
06/20/2011                   MENIFEE            KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HWY 460 CLOSED DUE TO FLASH FLOODING.

1130 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 NW HAZARD             37.30N 83.26W
06/20/2011                   PERRY              KY   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            LOWER SECOND CREEK RD. CLOSED.

1130 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 N HAZARD              37.33N 83.20W
06/20/2011                   PERRY              KY   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            HARVEYTON ROAD CLOSED.

1130 AM     FLASH FLOOD      9 NW HAZARD             37.35N 83.31W
06/20/2011                   PERRY              KY   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            16 MILE CREEK ROAD CLOSED.

1130 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 NW HAZARD             37.30N 83.26W
06/20/2011                   PERRY              KY   911 CALL CENTER

            ROAD AT TYPO HAS BEEN CLOSED.

0130 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BEATTYVILLE             37.58N 83.71W
06/20/2011                   LEE                KY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            BRIDGE WASHED OUT ON PAW PAW ROAD.

0230 PM     FLOOD            MIDDLESBORO             36.61N 83.72W
06/20/2011                   BELL               KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MANY RESIDENTALS AND COMMERCIAL LOCATIONS IN THE CITY ARE
            FLOODED.

&&

ABE
Special weather statement, Jun 21, 2:26 PM EDT, 14 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
226 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

KYZ086>088-116-117-211915-
CLAY-LESLIE-KNOX-HARLAN-BELL-
226 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 315
PM EDT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

   EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CLAY...
   SOUTHERN LESLIE...
   EAST CENTRAL KNOX...
   NORTHWESTERN HARLAN AND
   NORTHEASTERN BELL.

AT 226 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SANDY FORK...
OR 12 MILES WEST OF HARLAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...SPRUCE PINE
AROUND 235 PM EDT...WARBRANCH AROUND 240 PM EDT...BLEDSOE AROUND 245
PM EDT...MOZELLE AROUND 250 PM EDT AND CHAPPELL AROUND 255 PM EDT.

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN
ONE AND TWO INCHES PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS.
MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO DRIVE CAREFULLY.

GREIF
Special weather statement, Jun 21, 2:35 PM EDT, 5 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
235 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

KYZ113-115-117-118-211915-
KNOTT-PERRY-LESLIE-LETCHER-
235 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 315
PM EDT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

   SOUTHWESTERN KNOTT...
   SOUTHEASTERN PERRY...
   CENTRAL LESLIE AND
   WEST CENTRAL LETCHER.

AT 235 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HOSKINSTON...
OR 6 MILES SOUTH OF HYDEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...CINDA AROUND
240 PM EDT...CUTSHIN AROUND 245 PM EDT...DALEY AROUND 250 PM
EDT...FREW AROUND 255 PM EDT AND SLEMP AROUND 300 PM EDT.

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN
ONE AND TWO INCHES PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS.
MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO DRIVE CAREFULLY.

GREIF

The office that day

Everything else NWS Jackson, KY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 20, 9:07 PM EDTRiver Flood AdvisoryJKLEstill29 hr
Jun 21, 4:31 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJKLMartin, Pike29 min
Jun 21, 4:52 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJKLPike23 min
Jun 21, 5:03 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJKLPike17 min
Jun 21, 5:27 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryJKLPike3 hr
Jun 21, 7:16 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryJKLMcCreary, Whitley3 hr
Jun 21, 7:28 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJKLClay, Jackson, Knox, Laurel, McCreary, Rockcastle and 1 more47 min
Jun 21, 7:47 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJKLBreathitt, Clay, Jackson, Owsley, Perry43 min
Jun 21, 7:58 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJKLBreathitt, Estill, Lee, Owsley, Wolfe47 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kentucky, 2011Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.