Severe Thunderstorm Warning 220, NWS Jackson, KY

290 
WWUS53 KJKL 201304
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
904 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

KYC119-201314-
/O.CAN.KJKL.SV.W.0220.000000T0000Z-110620T1330Z/
KNOTT KY-
904 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN KNOTT COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 3689 8287 3686 8294 3685 8306 3680 8312
      3705 8325 3722 8285 3713 8268 3712 8272
      3704 8272 3702 8279 3698 8286 3693 8285
TIME...MOT...LOC 1304Z 304DEG 24KT 3685 8299

$$

KYC095-131-133-193-201330-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0220.000000T0000Z-110620T1330Z/
PERRY KY-LESLIE KY-LETCHER KY-HARLAN KY-
904 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN
HARLAN...LETCHER...EAST CENTRAL LESLIE AND SOUTHEASTERN PERRY
COUNTIES UNTIL 930 AM EDT...

AT 901 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
HOLMES MILL...OR 17 MILES EAST OF HARLAN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ROCK HOUSE...EOLIA...CLOVER FORK AND BIG BLACK MOUNTAIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3689 8287 3686 8294 3685 8306 3680 8312
      3705 8325 3722 8285 3713 8268 3712 8272
      3704 8272 3702 8279 3698 8286 3693 8285
TIME...MOT...LOC 1304Z 304DEG 24KT 3685 8299
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

313 
WWUS53 KJKL 201327
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
927 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

KYC095-131-133-193-201337-
/O.EXP.KJKL.SV.W.0220.000000T0000Z-110620T1330Z/
PERRY KY-LESLIE KY-LETCHER KY-HARLAN KY-
927 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN HARLAN...
LETCHER...EAST CENTRAL LESLIE AND SOUTHEASTERN PERRY COUNTIES WILL
EXPIRE AT 930 AM EDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA...HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3689 8287 3686 8294 3685 8306 3680 8312
      3705 8325 3722 8285 3713 8268 3712 8272
      3704 8272 3702 8279 3698 8286 3693 8285
TIME...MOT...LOC 1327Z 304DEG 24KT 3676 8283

$$

ABE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
749 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THRU THE COMMONWEALTH OVERNIGHT HAS SPARKED
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TSTMS STRETCHING FROM LOUISVILLE THRU BELL CO
AND INTO NERN TN. SMALL HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED FROM A FEW OF THESE
STORMS ALONG WITH SOME WIND...BUT THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS
IS THE HEAVY RAIN OVER AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN OVER 3 INCHES
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HAVE RAISED ANOTHER FLOOD ADVISORY TO
COVER THE AREA CURRENTLY UNDER THE GUN ALONG WITH A FLASH FLOOD
WARNING THRU 9 A.M. WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE CURRENTLY FALLING.

SHORT TERM MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE SFC AND SYNOPTIC
FEATURES AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE RUC/HRRR WITH AN EXTRAPOLATION OF
CURRENT OBS/TRENDS THRU THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A EURO/GFS/HPC
CONSENSUS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST.

THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST THRU THE CWA
TODAY AND COUPLED WITH A LINGERING H85 LOW LEVEL JET OVERHEAD FEEDING
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF TSTMS THRU THE
AFTERNOON OVER E/CENTRAL KY. WILL SIDE WITH SPC THINKING WHICH
INCLUDES ERN KY IN THE SLIGHT RISK TODAY...MAINLY FOR WIND...THOUGH
WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHORT TERM HYDRO PROBLEMS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINS SETS UP.

FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD...PROVIDING CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT
AND A GOOD SETUP FOR A POTENTIALLY DENSE VALLEY FOG EVENT. KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE NRN COUNTIES THRU THE EVENING AS THEY WILL BE IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE THESE PULLED FROM THE FCST LATER TODAY IF THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BE
COMING IN STRONGER/FASTER THAN CURRENTLY THINKING.

RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR OUR WEATHER THRU THE BULK OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...BRINGING CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ON TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY EVENING...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF
EJECTING OUT OF THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES WILL DEVELOP A SFC LOW
OVER THE PLAINS THAT HAS BEEN FCST TO EVENTUALLY MOVE NE TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES. HAVE SIDED WITH THE SLOWEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR NOW
IN BRINGING CLOUDS/POPS BACK INTO THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW
END CHANCES OVER OUR WRN COUNTIES TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE
EAST.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY STAYED NEAR TO JUST BELOW THE COOLER
MET MOS FOR HIGHS TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH A PERSISTENCE/MET BLEND FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

WITH FOCUS ON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...JUST MADE A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD BASED ON LATEST
CONSENSUS AMONG THE GUIDANCE...AND TO BRING THE GRIDS A LITTLE MORE IN
LINE WITH THE NEIGHBORS. TEMPS APPEAR TO BE REASONABLE AND ONLY MADE
A FEW TWEAKS TO THE HIGHS/LOWS THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A QUICK
GLANCE AT THE REST OF THE PARAMETERS DID NOT SEE ANYTHING TOO FAR OUT
OF LINE AND LET MOST OF THE FCST RIDE.

THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

THE MODELS START OUT TUESDAY MORNING IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUT QUICKLY
DIVERGE AS THE GFS DROPS THE 50H/85H LOW INTO THE LOWER GT LKS AS
THE ECMWF DRAWS THIS FEATURE NE INTO SRN CANADA. BY FRI MORNING THIS
DIFFERENCE HAS BECOME EVEN MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THE GFS LOW OVER NRN
LK MI WHILE THE ECMWF DRAWS THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION WELL TOWARDS
ERN CANADA. DIFFERENCES LIKE THESE REFLECT TO THE SFC WHERE THE GFS
WANTS TO PROJECT A BROADER AND SLOWER MOVING AREA OF SHRA/TSRA THRU
THE COMMONWEALTH. HAVE CHOSEN TO FOLLOW THE ECMWF MORE CLOSELY DUE
TO IT BEING THE MORE CONSISTENT AND BETTER VERIFYING MODEL.

THE FCST THEN STARTS OUT DRY TUE MORNING AS THE WARM FNT HAS LIFTED
INTO NRN OH AND WRN PA. BY WED MORNING THE FOLLOWING COLD FNT WILL
HAVE MADE IT INTO ERN KY WITH A BAND OF PCPN. AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS
INTO CANADA THE COLD FNT STRETCHES OUT AND BECOMES STATIONARY AS IT
STALLS ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE MTNS. PCPN TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE
FNT FINALLY MAKES THE JUMP TO THE LEE SIDE OF THE MTNS THU NIGHT.
THEN BY FRI MORNING THE NEXT WARM FNT BEGINS TO LIFT THRU THE AREA
SLOWLY... KEEPING PCPN IN THE FCST THRU THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 60S. DEPENDING ON WARM SECTOR VS COLD SECTOR AS THE FNTS
CROSS THE AREA WILL MAKE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MID 80 AND LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/...UPDATED

WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THRU ERN KY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION TODAY. FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE LIFTED THRU SME AND
LOZ...BUT WILL CARRY VCTS THRU THE AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
STRAGGLERS. OTHERWISE...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THRU THE DAY. JKL IS
STILL IN LINE FOR MORE TSTMS AND AM GENERALLY EXPECTING PREVAILING
MVFR WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR IN ANY TSTMS THRU THIS
AFTERNOON. FRONT SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND ANOTHER
GOOD SETUP FOR FOG ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS IFR FOG AT
SME AND LOZ FOR THE MOMENT...BUT WILL HAVE TO LET THE 18Z/00Z TAF
DETERMINE HOW MUCH CLEARING CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND HOW DENSE
THE FOG WILL GET.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM....DUSTY/MB
AVIATION...MB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
753 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-211500-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
753 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AND
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. IN ADDITION...SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN
CAUSING SOME FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY AROUND AREAS THAT SEE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY INCIDENTS OF FLOODING OR
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCUR TODAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSON KY...OR THEIR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.

RAY/MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
751 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0726 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 ESE MIDDLESBORO       36.60N 83.69W
06/20/2011  E5.71 INCH       BELL               KY   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            FOUR AND A HALF HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL OF 5.71 INCHES AT
            YELLOW CREEK RAWS IN CUMBERLAND GAP NHP. 1.26 INCHES
            DURING THE PAST HOUR.

&&

JP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
756 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

KYZ068-069-080-112>117-201230-
ROCKCASTLE-LAUREL-BREATHITT-JACKSON-OWSLEY-KNOTT-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-
756 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
THROUGH 830 AM EDT MONDAY MORNING...

   SOUTHWESTERN BREATHITT...
   JACKSON...
   OWSLEY...
   NORTHEASTERN ROCKCASTLE...
   WEST CENTRAL KNOTT...
   NORTHERN PERRY...
   NORTHERN CLAY...
   NORTHEASTERN LAUREL AND
   NORTHWESTERN LESLIE.

AT 756 AM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM ELKATAWA TO ARNETT TO PRIVETT TO MORRILL...OR ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM JACKSON TO 6 MILES EAST OF BOONEVILLE TO 6 MILES
EAST OF MCKEE TO 7 MILES EAST OF BEREA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...LOST CREEK
AROUND 805 AM EDT...CLAYHOLE AROUND 810 AM EDT...HARDSHELL AROUND 815
AM EDT...NOBLE AROUND 820 AM EDT...FELTY AROUND 825 AM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN
ONE AND TWO INCHES PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD.

PELTON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
810 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

KYZ110-112-113-115-118-201300-
FLOYD-BREATHITT-KNOTT-PERRY-LETCHER-
810 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
THROUGH 900 AM EDT MONDAY MORNING...

   EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL FLOYD...
   SOUTHEASTERN BREATHITT...
   SOUTHERN KNOTT...
   NORTHEASTERN PERRY AND
   NORTH CENTRAL LETCHER.

AT 810 AM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED NEAR ARY...OR 7
MILES NORTH OF HAZARD...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...TALCUM AROUND
815 AM EDT...FISTY AROUND 820 AM EDT...EMMALENA AROUND 825 AM EDT...
CARRIE AROUND 830 AM EDT...HINDMAN AROUND 835 AM EDT...

RESIDENTS CAN EXPECT UP TO ONE INCH OF RAIN...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50
MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD.

PELTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
819 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0813 AM     FLASH FLOOD      KAYJAY                  36.74N 83.85W
06/20/2011                   KNOX               KY   911 CALL CENTER

            BRUSH CREEK WAS REPORTED TO BE OUT OF ITS BANKS AND
            CONTINUING TO FLOOD KY 225...HOMES AND OTHER ROADWAYS IN
            THE AREA.

&&

JP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
838 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

KYZ088-113-115>118-201315-
KNOTT-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-HARLAN-
838 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 915
AM EDT MONDAY MORNING...

   SOUTHWESTERN KNOTT...
   PERRY...
   EAST CENTRAL CLAY...
   LESLIE...
   WESTERN LETCHER AND
   EASTERN HARLAN.

AT 838 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HAZARD...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...VICCO AROUND
845 AM EDT...ULVAH AROUND 850 AM EDT...BLUEFIELD AROUND 855 AM EDT...
LILLEY CORNETT WOODS AROUND 900 AM EDT...FLINT AROUND 905 AM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT TORRENTIAL RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATE OF UP
TO FOUR INCHES PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...VIVID CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD.

ABE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
842 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0838 AM     FLOOD            MIDDLESBORO             36.61N 83.72W
06/20/2011                   BELL               KY   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL ROADS ARE STILL CLOSED IN AND NEAR MIDDLESBORO
            DUE TO FLOODING. MULTIPLE WATER RESCUES ARE ALSO UNDERWAY
            AT THIS TIME IN THE MIDDLESBORO VICINITY.

&&

JP