Severe Thunderstorm Warning 215, NWS Jackson, KY

930 
WWUS53 KJKL 200623
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
223 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

KYC051-121-125-235-200630-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0215.000000T0000Z-110620T0630Z/
CLAY KY-LAUREL KY-KNOX KY-WHITLEY KY-
223 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN
WHITLEY...KNOX...SOUTHEASTERN LAUREL AND SOUTHWESTERN CLAY COUNTIES
UNTIL 230 AM EDT...

AT 222 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
BAILEYS SWITCH...OR NEAR BARBOURVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BARBOURVILLE...GREEN ROAD...PROVIDENCE...CLATE...CANNON...
  GIRDLER...LINCOLN...SWAN LAKE...HEIDRICK...KING...SWANPOND...
  HINKLE...OGLE...BRYANTS STORE...BOONE HEIGHTS...BIMBLE...YEAGER...
  ARTEMUS...HUBBS AND BIRDSEYE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 8415 3715 8404 3706 8365 3671 8394
TIME...MOT...LOC 0623Z 304DEG 31KT 3692 8388
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$
JP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
820 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TONIGHT/...UPDATED

WILL BE UPDATING THE ZONES TO REMOVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND
TORNADO WATCH. STRONGEST STORMS APPEAR TO BE TRACKING JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM IN
THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO SHOULD AN OUTFLOW TRACK NORTHWARD
INTO OUR CWA. OTHERWISE...WILL ADJUST ISC GRID ELEMENTS...TEMPS ETC.
FOR LATEST HOURLY TRENDS. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SO CAN NOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY JUST TO
OUR SOUTHWEST. EXPECT TO REDUCE POPS EARLY ON BUT PLAN ON KEEPING AT
LEAST A SOLID CHANCE POP GOING LATER TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS
TO MAKE A MORE PRONOUNCED SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AND EAST. UPDATED
PRODUCTS OUT SOON.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

MAIN FOCUS WAS ON THE COMPLICATED SITUATION GOING ON EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR TENNESSEE BORDER
COUNTIES. THE AIRMASS IS DESTABILIZING QUICKLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY AS HOLES ARE DEVELOPING IN THE OVERCAST. UNUSUALLY STRONG
WIND FIELD SOUTH OF THE MCV SWIRLING NEAR CVG WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT WARM...MUGGY AIRMASS NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. FEEL THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER IS TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER...WANTED TO INCLUDE OUR
EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE TOR WATCH AS A BUFFER WITH STORMS
ALREADY SKIRTING THE TENNESSEE BORDER. TO THE NORTH OF THE
WATCH...NOT SURE HOW UNSTABLE WE CAN GET TODAY BUT STILL EXPECT AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP OVER THE NEXT
2 TO 4 HOURS AS A VORT LOBE ROTATES IN FROM THE WEST. WILL ALSO PLAN
TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY
TODAY. NO PROBLEMS NOTED SO FAR...BUT GROUND IS SATURATED NOW SO ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY START TO CAUSE PROBLEMS.

THE 12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD RELATIVE AGREEMENT TRACKING THE MCV OFF
TO THE EAST INTO WEST VIRGINIA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THIS FEATURE AND THE NORMAL NOCTURNAL DECREASE IN SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD BRING ABOUT A DECREASE IN SHOWER/TSTORM
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...A WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF SLOWLY
LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER/TSTORM
AT ANY TIME TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE LIFTING TO OUR NORTH
ON MONDAY...SO WILL MAINTAIN A 30-40 POP FOR MOST AREAS DURING THE
DAY. RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD FINALLY BUILD IN BY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT EFFECTIVELY ENDING ANY NOTEWORTHY THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BY DAWN ON TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE PROBLEMATIC...ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY...AS THEY WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION.
PROGS INDICATE A JUMP IN 850 MB TEMPS ABOVE 20C THOUGH...SO WILL GO
WITH A RANGE OF HIGHS FROM THE MID 80S OVER NORTHEAST KY (WHERE
SHOWERS/TSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY) UP TO THE NEAR 90 NEAR LAKE
CUMBERLAND (WHERE SHOWERS/TSTORMS ARE LEAST LIKELY). OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 IN THE MUGGY AIRMASS.

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

THE MODELS START OUT TUESDAY MORNING IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUT QUICKLY
DIVERGE AS THE GFS DROPS THE 50H/85H LOW INTO THE LOWER GT LKS AS
THE ECMWF DRAWS THIS FEATURE NE INTO SRN CANADA. BY FRI MORNING THIS
DIFFERENCE HAS BECOME EVEN MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THE GFS LOW OVER NRN
LK MI WHILE THE ECMWF DRAWS THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION WELL TOWARDS
ERN CANADA. DIFFERENCES LIKE THESE REFLECT TO THE SFC WHERE THE GFS
WANTS TO PROJECT A BROADER AND SLOWER MOVING AREA OF SHRA/TSRA THRU
THE COMMONWEALTH. HAVE CHOSEN TO FOLLOW THE ECMWF MORE CLOSELY DUE
TO IT BEING THE MORE CONSISTENT AND BETTER VERIFYING MODEL.

THE FCST THEN STARTS OUT DRY TUE MORNING AS THE WARM FNT HAS LIFTED
INTO NRN OH AND WRN PA. BY WED MORNING THE FOLLOWING COLD FNT WILL
HAVE MADE IT INTO ERN KY WITH A BAND OF PCPN. AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS
INTO CANADA THE COLD FNT STRETCHES OUT AND BECOMES STATIONARY AS IT
STALLS ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE MTNS. PCPN TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE
FNT FINALLY MAKES THE JUMP TO THE LEE SIDE OF THE MTNS THU NIGHT.
THEN BY FRI MORNING THE NEXT WARM FNT BEGINS TO LIFT THRU THE AREA
SLOWLY... KEEPING PCPN IN THE FCST THRU THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 60S. DEPENDING ON WARM SECTOR VS COLD SECTOR AS THE FNTS
CROSS THE AREA WILL MAKE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MID 80 AND LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/

WARM SFC FRONT IS THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE. WITH AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THE
WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT FURTHER NORTHWARD TOWARDS OUR AREA MONDAY...
KEEPING THE THREAT AND THEREFORE AT LEAST VCSH AND A CB GROUP GOING
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE TAF FORECAST. THE OTHER CONCERN TONIGHT WILL
BE FOG. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT WORSE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SHOULD WE CLEAR OUT MORE THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT EXCEPT STRONGER
AND MORE VARIABLE IN THE VCTY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...ABE/RAY
LONG TERM....DUSTY
AVIATION...RAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
900 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-201100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
900 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS
TO SHIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE AREA. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG
AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. IN ADDITION...SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN CAUSING SOME MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY LOW WATER
CROSSINGS. ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF
WATER ON AREA ROADS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

RAY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1242 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-069-088-104-106>120-200900-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-JACKSON-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...MCKEE...
HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON...
SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN...
BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...INEZ...
PIKEVILLE
1242 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

...AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...

PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG HAS DEVELOPED AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT. THE FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES
BELOW ONE QUARTER OF A MILE IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH
VISIBILITIES OF A FEW HUNDRED FEET IN SOME AREAS. THE FOG WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE BETWEEN 5 AM EDT AND 7 AM EDT. LOW LYING AREAS
AND AREAS NEAR LAKES...RIVERS AND LARGER CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL BE
MOST PRONE TO FOG.

JP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
133 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

KYZ068-079-080-200615-
ROCKCASTLE-PULASKI-LAUREL-
133 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 215
AM EDT MONDAY MORNING...

   SOUTHWESTERN ROCKCASTLE...
   PULASKI AND
   WESTERN LAUREL.

AT 133 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR EUBANK...OR 15
MILES NORTHWEST OF SOMERSET...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...HOGUE AROUND
140 AM EDT...PULASKI AROUND 145 AM EDT...WOODSTOCK AROUND 150 AM
EDT...BOBTOWN AROUND 155 AM EDT...VALLEY OAK AROUND 200 AM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN
ONE AND TWO INCHES PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND NICKEL SIZED HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD.

PELTON