Severe Thunderstorm Warning 175, NWS Jackson, KY

451 
WWUS53 KJKL 260831
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
431 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

KYC025-051-065-121-129-131-153-165-175-189-193-197-237-260841-
/O.EXP.KJKL.SV.W.0175.000000T0000Z-110526T0830Z/
MORGAN KY-MENIFEE KY-POWELL KY-MAGOFFIN KY-WOLFE KY-ESTILL KY-LEE KY-
BREATHITT KY-OWSLEY KY-PERRY KY-CLAY KY-LESLIE KY-KNOX KY-
431 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL KNOX...
NORTHERN LESLIE...EASTERN CLAY...NORTHWESTERN PERRY...OWSLEY...
BREATHITT...EASTERN LEE...EXTREME EAST CENTRAL ESTILL...WOLFE...WEST
CENTRAL MAGOFFIN...SOUTHEASTERN POWELL...SOUTHEASTERN MENIFEE AND
WESTERN MORGAN COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR
PROPERTY...HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 3806 8325 3791 8318 3770 8317 3717 8321
      3705 8339 3703 8383 3747 8374 3766 8378
      3783 8380
TIME...MOT...LOC 0801Z 238DEG 31KT 3788 8363 3771 8356
          3750 8356 3706 8364

$$

PELTON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
156 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/

UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR NEARLY CLEAR SKIES WHICH WERE PRESENT TO START
THE EVENING. CONVECTIVE LINE OVER WESTERN KY WILL MOVE EAST DURING
THE NIGHT AND OUR CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE. HOWEVER...THE AXIS
OF MAX THETA E AND MAX DEW POINTS WAS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE...AND THE STORMS ARE MOVING TOWARD LESS UNSTABLE AIR. THE 00Z
NAM IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 18Z RUN IN SHOWING THE LINE WEAKENING AS
IT APPROACHES AND NEARLY DYING BEFORE IT GETS HERE. HAVE MADE SLIGHT
POP ADJUSTMENTS TO REDUCE LIKELY POPS TO HIGH CHANCE ON OUR WESTERN
BORDER FOR LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ALSO LOWERED TEMPS IN OUR EASTERN
VALLEYS...WHERE LACK OF CLOUDS HAS ALLOWED SOME LOCATIONS TO FALL TO
THE MID 60S ALREADY AT MID EVENING.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

A POTENT STORM SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY
WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS WOUND
UP QUITE TIGHT AND AS SUCH BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ONLY GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. INFLUENCE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS
UP INTO A WAVE AND MERGES BACK INTO THE MAIN CORE OF WESTERLIES LATE
IN THE PERIOD.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...ONGOING CONVECTION TO OUR WEST WILL SWING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH AND TOWARDS EASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY CONVECTION THAT PUSHES
EASTWARD OR THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH A WEAK BUT
SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL CAP AND DRIER AIR AT THE SFC. AS SUCH KEPT THE
BULK OF ANY RAIN CONFINED TO MAINLY OUR WESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT
THOUGH SOME ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY
PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING
THE PRIMARY THREAT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS IN THE
HWO.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD BE QUITE MILD TONIGHT AS A LIGHT BUT STEADY
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WIND SHOULD HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS UP. ONLY
EXCEPTION AND CONCERN WOULD BE OUR DEEPER EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS
WHERE LOWER DEW POINTS...AROUND 60 AND A NOCTURNAL INVERSION MAY BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO TOTALLY DECOUPLE.
EXPECT A DECENT GRADIENT TO HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AS THICKER
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COOLED AIR TO OUR WEST GRADUALLY SHIFTS ACROSS
THE CWA. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
BEHIND A SFC COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRANSIT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CONSALL...OR THE MODEL CONSENSUS LOOKED
VERY APPEALING FOR MAX/MINS AND AS SUCH GENERALLY TWEAKED TEMPS
TOWARDS THOSE NUMBERS.

.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

WHILE THE MODELS ARE NOT IN TERRIFIC AGREEMENT INITIALLY...THE ALL
HAVE HONED IN ON A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE THAT PORTENDS A MUCH DRIER...
WARMER...AND HUMID PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED.
THE PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD ALSO BRING RELIEF FROM THE VICIOUS BOUTS
OF SEVERE WEATHER THAT HAVE RAVAGED THE PLAINS AND POINTS EAST FOR
THE PAST MONTH OR SO. SPECIFICALLY...THE EASTERN TROUGH OVERHEAD AT
THE START OF THE EXTENDED WILL OPEN UP AND SLIP EAST ON FRIDAY. THE
LATEST...12Z...ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THIS TROUGH
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. IN ITS WAKE...THE HEIGHTS WILL RISE THROUGHOUT
THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION WHILE THE STRONG WESTERLIES
RETREAT TO THE NORTH. AS THIS HAPPENS...SOME MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL
PASS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...A BUILDUP IN
RIDGING THROUGHOUT THE HEART OF THE SOUTHEAST WILL COMMENCE FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND SPREADING ITS PROTECTIVE SHIELD OF MID
LEVEL WARMTH OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE PROCESS. ALL MODELS THEN
SHOW THIS RIDGE BECOMING DOMINANT OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST WITH THIS AND
WOULD SUPPORT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES...WHILE THE ECMWF DOES ATTEMPT
TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE BY MID WEEK. ACCORDINGLY...THE PATTERN BECOMES
A BIT MORE IFFY BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS BRINGING ENERGY INTO THE
AREA FORM THE NORTH AND THE ECMWF SLIPS IT IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION ALOFT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE FORECAST WITH WEATHER DETAILS FROM THE ECMWF FOLLOWED MOST
CLOSELY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE SFC REFLECTION OF THE WEAKENING
UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY WITH
POPS TAPERING OFF IN THE NORTHEAST LASTLY FRIDAY EVENING. FOR
SATURDAY...A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTH THROUGH EAST
KENTUCKY WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST AS WARMER WEATHER ENSUES. THIS BOUNDARY CLEARS THE AREA BY
SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH BUILDING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH MID WEEK. EXPECT A DIURNAL PATTERN TO THE CU AND LOW
POP CHANCES FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT KEPT THE CONVECTION
OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL ANOTHER BOUNDARY APPROACHES FOR MID WEEK.
THAT SAID...WITH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME ISOLATED STRONG STORMS DEVELOP ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHEAST. AT
NIGHT...ANTICIPATE A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT IN THE
MUGGY AIR MASS WITH THE THERMAL BELT ABOUT 5 DEGREES OR SO WARMER THAN
THE VALLEYS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.

FOR TEMPERATURES...USED A BLEND OF THE MAV GUIDANCE AND THE INHERITED
GRIDS EARLY ON AND THEN LEANED MORE TOWARD CONSALL AND HPC FOR THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST...ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TERRAIN
BASED ADJUSTMENTS EACH NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP LOWER THAN MEX
NUMBERS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST...EXCEPT SIMILAR ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/...UPDATED

VFR CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT AREA WIDE TO START THE PERIOD. A
WEAKENING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE
AND JUST ABOUT TO ENTER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS LINE WILL PROGRESS EAST DURING THE NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES TO SHOW
AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND. THE BIG UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER OR NOT IT
WILL DIE OUT BEFORE IT MAKES IT ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE REGION.
SUSPECT KSME AND KLOZ WILL SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF PRECIP/THUNDER WITH
SOME INITIAL WINDS GUSTS AROUND 30KT DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
THE TAF PERIOD. THINK THAT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MORE THAN
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS LEFT BY THE TIME THE LINE REACHES OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES AROUND 09Z. ONCE THIS OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE SYSTEM PASSES OR
FADES...THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE WEATHER UNTIL HEATING TAKES
PLACE DURING THE DAY AND ADDITIONAL STORMS FIRE UP. AT THIS
POINT...TIMING IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO PLACE STORMS CATEGORICALLY IN THE
TAFS. HAVE USED A LONG PERIOD OF VCTS...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY AT SOME POINT IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ANY STORMS SHOULD
FADE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 00Z AFTER A COLD
FRONT PASSES. OUTSIDE OF PRECIP OR LOCALIZED EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING IFR OR WORSE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...RAY/HAL
LONG TERM....GREIF
AVIATION...HAL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1242 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-261100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
1242 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME
STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED...MAINLY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

AR/RAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
332 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0318 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MARSHES SIDING          36.74N 84.48W
05/26/2011                   MCCREARY           KY   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN IN A PERSONS YARD.

&&

AR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
332 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0318 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MARSHES SIDING          36.74N 84.48W
05/26/2011                   MCCREARY           KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS TREES DOWN IN HIS YARD.

&&

AR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
342 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N PULASKI             37.25N 84.64W
05/26/2011                   PULASKI            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LIMB BROKEN OFF OF A WALNUT TREE AND BLOW DOWN THE
            STREET. ALSO HAD PEA SIZED HAIL ALMOST COVERING THE
            GROUND.

&&

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
353 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0304 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W SOMERSET            37.08N 84.63W
05/26/2011                   PULASKI            KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN ON HWY 80 JUST WEST OF SOMERSET.

&&

AR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
354 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 AM     TSTM WND DMG     BURNSIDE                36.99N 84.60W
05/26/2011                   PULASKI            KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER OUTAGES WERE REPORTED IN BURNSIDE.

&&

AR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
355 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0321 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MOUNT VICTORY           37.03N 84.39W
05/26/2011                   PULASKI            KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER OUTAGES WERE REPORTED IN MOUNT VICTORY.

&&

AR