Severe Thunderstorm Warning 174, NWS Jackson, KY

741 
WWUS53 KJKL 260808
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
408 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

KYC025-051-065-109-121-125-129-131-165-189-193-197-237-260814-
/O.EXP.KJKL.SV.W.0174.000000T0000Z-110526T0800Z/
MENIFEE KY-POWELL KY-WOLFE KY-ESTILL KY-LEE KY-BREATHITT KY-
JACKSON KY-OWSLEY KY-PERRY KY-CLAY KY-LAUREL KY-LESLIE KY-KNOX KY-
408 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL KNOX...
NORTHWESTERN LESLIE...EAST CENTRAL LAUREL...CLAY...NORTHWESTERN
PERRY...OWSLEY...JACKSON...WESTERN BREATHITT...LEE...ESTILL...
WOLFE...SOUTHERN POWELL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MENIFEE COUNTIES HAS BEEN 
REISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST...BUT
THE WARNING HAS BEEN REISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

LAT...LON 3704 8405 3716 8402 3740 8405 3757 8415
      3757 8411 3765 8414 3767 8411 3773 8411
      3791 8356 3757 8330 3732 8327 3707 8346
TIME...MOT...LOC 0737Z 254DEG 50KT 3770 8409 3743 8394
          3718 8391 3702 8397

$$

PELTON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
156 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/

UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR NEARLY CLEAR SKIES WHICH WERE PRESENT TO START
THE EVENING. CONVECTIVE LINE OVER WESTERN KY WILL MOVE EAST DURING
THE NIGHT AND OUR CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE. HOWEVER...THE AXIS
OF MAX THETA E AND MAX DEW POINTS WAS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE...AND THE STORMS ARE MOVING TOWARD LESS UNSTABLE AIR. THE 00Z
NAM IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 18Z RUN IN SHOWING THE LINE WEAKENING AS
IT APPROACHES AND NEARLY DYING BEFORE IT GETS HERE. HAVE MADE SLIGHT
POP ADJUSTMENTS TO REDUCE LIKELY POPS TO HIGH CHANCE ON OUR WESTERN
BORDER FOR LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ALSO LOWERED TEMPS IN OUR EASTERN
VALLEYS...WHERE LACK OF CLOUDS HAS ALLOWED SOME LOCATIONS TO FALL TO
THE MID 60S ALREADY AT MID EVENING.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

A POTENT STORM SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY
WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS WOUND
UP QUITE TIGHT AND AS SUCH BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ONLY GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. INFLUENCE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS
UP INTO A WAVE AND MERGES BACK INTO THE MAIN CORE OF WESTERLIES LATE
IN THE PERIOD.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...ONGOING CONVECTION TO OUR WEST WILL SWING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH AND TOWARDS EASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY CONVECTION THAT PUSHES
EASTWARD OR THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH A WEAK BUT
SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL CAP AND DRIER AIR AT THE SFC. AS SUCH KEPT THE
BULK OF ANY RAIN CONFINED TO MAINLY OUR WESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT
THOUGH SOME ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY
PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING
THE PRIMARY THREAT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS IN THE
HWO.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD BE QUITE MILD TONIGHT AS A LIGHT BUT STEADY
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WIND SHOULD HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS UP. ONLY
EXCEPTION AND CONCERN WOULD BE OUR DEEPER EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS
WHERE LOWER DEW POINTS...AROUND 60 AND A NOCTURNAL INVERSION MAY BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO TOTALLY DECOUPLE.
EXPECT A DECENT GRADIENT TO HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AS THICKER
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COOLED AIR TO OUR WEST GRADUALLY SHIFTS ACROSS
THE CWA. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
BEHIND A SFC COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRANSIT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CONSALL...OR THE MODEL CONSENSUS LOOKED
VERY APPEALING FOR MAX/MINS AND AS SUCH GENERALLY TWEAKED TEMPS
TOWARDS THOSE NUMBERS.

.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

WHILE THE MODELS ARE NOT IN TERRIFIC AGREEMENT INITIALLY...THE ALL
HAVE HONED IN ON A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE THAT PORTENDS A MUCH DRIER...
WARMER...AND HUMID PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED.
THE PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD ALSO BRING RELIEF FROM THE VICIOUS BOUTS
OF SEVERE WEATHER THAT HAVE RAVAGED THE PLAINS AND POINTS EAST FOR
THE PAST MONTH OR SO. SPECIFICALLY...THE EASTERN TROUGH OVERHEAD AT
THE START OF THE EXTENDED WILL OPEN UP AND SLIP EAST ON FRIDAY. THE
LATEST...12Z...ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THIS TROUGH
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. IN ITS WAKE...THE HEIGHTS WILL RISE THROUGHOUT
THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION WHILE THE STRONG WESTERLIES
RETREAT TO THE NORTH. AS THIS HAPPENS...SOME MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL
PASS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...A BUILDUP IN
RIDGING THROUGHOUT THE HEART OF THE SOUTHEAST WILL COMMENCE FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND SPREADING ITS PROTECTIVE SHIELD OF MID
LEVEL WARMTH OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE PROCESS. ALL MODELS THEN
SHOW THIS RIDGE BECOMING DOMINANT OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST WITH THIS AND
WOULD SUPPORT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES...WHILE THE ECMWF DOES ATTEMPT
TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE BY MID WEEK. ACCORDINGLY...THE PATTERN BECOMES
A BIT MORE IFFY BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS BRINGING ENERGY INTO THE
AREA FORM THE NORTH AND THE ECMWF SLIPS IT IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION ALOFT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE FORECAST WITH WEATHER DETAILS FROM THE ECMWF FOLLOWED MOST
CLOSELY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE SFC REFLECTION OF THE WEAKENING
UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY WITH
POPS TAPERING OFF IN THE NORTHEAST LASTLY FRIDAY EVENING. FOR
SATURDAY...A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTH THROUGH EAST
KENTUCKY WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST AS WARMER WEATHER ENSUES. THIS BOUNDARY CLEARS THE AREA BY
SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH BUILDING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH MID WEEK. EXPECT A DIURNAL PATTERN TO THE CU AND LOW
POP CHANCES FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT KEPT THE CONVECTION
OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL ANOTHER BOUNDARY APPROACHES FOR MID WEEK.
THAT SAID...WITH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME ISOLATED STRONG STORMS DEVELOP ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHEAST. AT
NIGHT...ANTICIPATE A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT IN THE
MUGGY AIR MASS WITH THE THERMAL BELT ABOUT 5 DEGREES OR SO WARMER THAN
THE VALLEYS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.

FOR TEMPERATURES...USED A BLEND OF THE MAV GUIDANCE AND THE INHERITED
GRIDS EARLY ON AND THEN LEANED MORE TOWARD CONSALL AND HPC FOR THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST...ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TERRAIN
BASED ADJUSTMENTS EACH NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP LOWER THAN MEX
NUMBERS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST...EXCEPT SIMILAR ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/...UPDATED

VFR CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT AREA WIDE TO START THE PERIOD. A
WEAKENING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE
AND JUST ABOUT TO ENTER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS LINE WILL PROGRESS EAST DURING THE NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES TO SHOW
AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND. THE BIG UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER OR NOT IT
WILL DIE OUT BEFORE IT MAKES IT ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE REGION.
SUSPECT KSME AND KLOZ WILL SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF PRECIP/THUNDER WITH
SOME INITIAL WINDS GUSTS AROUND 30KT DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
THE TAF PERIOD. THINK THAT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MORE THAN
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS LEFT BY THE TIME THE LINE REACHES OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES AROUND 09Z. ONCE THIS OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE SYSTEM PASSES OR
FADES...THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE WEATHER UNTIL HEATING TAKES
PLACE DURING THE DAY AND ADDITIONAL STORMS FIRE UP. AT THIS
POINT...TIMING IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO PLACE STORMS CATEGORICALLY IN THE
TAFS. HAVE USED A LONG PERIOD OF VCTS...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY AT SOME POINT IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ANY STORMS SHOULD
FADE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 00Z AFTER A COLD
FRONT PASSES. OUTSIDE OF PRECIP OR LOCALIZED EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING IFR OR WORSE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...RAY/HAL
LONG TERM....GREIF
AVIATION...HAL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1242 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-261100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
1242 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME
STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED...MAINLY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

AR/RAY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
244 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-104-106-108-111-114-260730-
FLEMING-ROWAN-BATH-ELLIOTT-MONTGOMERY-MENIFEE-POWELL-ESTILL-
ROCKCASTLE-PULASKI-MORGAN-WOLFE-LEE-JACKSON-OWSLEY-
244 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
THROUGH 330 AM EDT THURSDAY MORNING...

   SOUTHEASTERN FLEMING...
   ROWAN...
   SOUTHEASTERN BATH...
   ELLIOTT...
   SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY...
   NORTHERN MORGAN...
   MENIFEE...
   POWELL...
   WESTERN WOLFE...
   ESTILL...
   LEE...
   NORTHERN JACKSON...
   NORTHWESTERN OWSLEY...
   NORTHERN ROCKCASTLE AND
   EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL PULASKI.

AT 244 AM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTH OF MUSES MILLS TO MOORE'S FERRY TO FOX
TO 10 MILES NORTH OF BOONE TO INDIAN LAKES PARK...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES EAST OF FLEMINGSBURG TO 7 MILES EAST OF
OWINGSVILLE TO 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF IRVINE TO 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BEREA TO 9 MILES WEST OF MOUNT VERNON...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...YOUNG SPRINGS
AROUND 250 AM EDT...WILDIE AROUND 255 AM EDT...YALE AROUND 300 AM
EDT...ZILPO AROUND 305 AM EDT...WITT AROUND 310 AM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AS HIGH AS
40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD.

PELTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
322 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 AM     TSTM WND DMG     N SUSIE                 36.78N 84.96W
05/26/2011                   WAYNE              KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN ONTO A HOUSE ALONG HWY 1546 IN
            MURL.

&&

AR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
323 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MONTICELLO              36.84N 84.85W
05/26/2011                   WAYNE              KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN ONTO A TRAILER HOME ON EVELYN
            AVENUE IN MONTICELLO.

&&

AR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
330 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

KYZ058>060-068-069-079-080-106-108-109-111-112-114>117-260815-
MENIFEE-POWELL-ESTILL-ROCKCASTLE-PULASKI-LAUREL-MORGAN-MAGOFFIN-
WOLFE-LEE-BREATHITT-JACKSON-OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-
330 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
THROUGH 415 AM EDT THURSDAY MORNING...

   WESTERN MORGAN...
   SOUTHERN MENIFEE...
   POWELL...
   WEST CENTRAL MAGOFFIN...
   WOLFE...
   ESTILL...
   LEE...
   WESTERN BREATHITT...
   JACKSON...
   OWSLEY...
   EASTERN ROCKCASTLE...
   WEST CENTRAL PERRY...
   EAST CENTRAL PULASKI...
   CLAY...
   LAUREL AND
   NORTHWESTERN LESLIE.

AT 330 AM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM KNOB LICK TO HURLEY TO HIGHTOP...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RICHMOND TO MCKEE TO 10 MILES
SOUTH OF LONDON...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...FOX AROUND 335
AM EDT...SANDHILL AROUND 340 AM EDT...HARDWICK AROUND 345 AM EDT...
COTTAGE FURNACE AROUND 350 AM EDT...KNOWLTON AROUND 355 AM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AS HIGH AS
40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL IN THESE
AREAS.

PELTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
332 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0318 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MARSHES SIDING          36.74N 84.48W
05/26/2011                   MCCREARY           KY   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN IN A PERSONS YARD.

&&

AR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
332 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0318 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MARSHES SIDING          36.74N 84.48W
05/26/2011                   MCCREARY           KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS TREES DOWN IN HIS YARD.

&&

AR