Severe Thunderstorm Warning 109, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
735 PM EDT MON APR 25 2011

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE DURING THE PERIOD...BUT WINDING DOWN ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME TIMING/TRACKING
DISCREPANCIES...AND HAVE USED A COMPROMISE FOR THE FORECAST.

FIRST CONCERN IS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTION HAS
STARTED TO POP...BUT MOSTLY OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA AS OF MID
AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...STILL THINKING THAT COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED WITH A LACK OF A FOCUSING MECHANISM...AND HAVE USED A 20
PERCENT POP FOR THE START OF FIRST PERIOD. IF TRENDS SHOW MORE
COVERAGE...AN UPDATE WOULD BE NEEDED. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHANCE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD IN OUR FAR SW...WITH BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS SHOWING CONVECTION INITIATING ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER MO AND
AR THIS EVENING AND MOVING EAST OVERNIGHT...BUT THE NAM BEING SLOWER
THAN THE GFS.

ON TUESDAY THE CONVECTION REMNANTS MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA. FORECAST
WIND FIELDS SHOW MORE SHEER DEVELOPING FOR TUE...AND SEVERE THREAT
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY IF SOME DESTABILIZATION CAN TAKE
PLACE FIRST. DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY LOWER THE PRECIP AND SVR
THREAT OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUE.

TUE NIGHT A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND HEAD TOWARD AR. MODELS SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING
TO OUR W AND SW CLOSER TO THE LOW AND IN THE AREA OF GOOD INFLOW OFF
THE GULF. THIS CONVECTION MAY AFFECT OUR AREA DURING THE NIGHT.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WX IS LIKELY TO BE WEDNESDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW WILL CONTINUE DEEPENING AND TRACKING NE UP THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
WINDS FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG. THE MOST QUESTIONABLE
PARAMETER MAY BE INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...
WHERE DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY FOR LIMITING
PRECIP AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. EVEN SO...BOTH FLOODING AND ALL TYPES OF
SEVERE WX ARE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. EVEN IN
THE EAST...IF CONVECTION MANAGES TO OCCUR DESPITE DOWNSLOPING...
DAMAGING WINDS COULD STILL THREATEN. THE THREATS WIND DOWN ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

FINALLY APPEARS A BREAK FROM THE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL ARRIVE ON
THURSDAY AS MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR RETURNS TO EAST KENTUCKY. THIS
SHOULD GIVE THE AREA A CHANCE TO DRY OUT AND RECOVER FROM THE MID
WEEK ACTIVE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO REBOUND
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A COLD FRONT TO BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF RAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM THURSDAY INTO THE START OF
THIS NEXT WEEKEND. WILL GO AHEAD AND ELIMINATE POPS STARTING AT 12Z
THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE JUST TOO DRY AND
STABLE TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE TIMING OF THE FRONT LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. OPTING TO KEEP THE FORECAST FAIRLY IN TACT WITH
SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...GUT FEELING IS THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
END UP BEING SLOWER AND MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
THIS IS GENERALLY WHAT THE ECMWF AGREES ON AT THE MOMENT.
HOWEVER...WITHOUT MODEL AGREEMENT...OPTING TO HOLD ONTO A CHANCE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

AFTER A "COOL" THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM HEADING INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE COVERING THE TEMPERATURES
FAIRLY WELL...SO NO REASON TO DEVIATE VERY MUCH.
&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/...UPDATED

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AROUND 16 OR 17Z TOMORROW. OTHER
THAN A FEW MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND CIRRUS LEFT OVER FROM DISTANT
THUNDERSTORMS...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO LOWER AND THICKEN BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING...AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.
ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TOMORROW MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20KTS POSSIBLE. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY THE STRONGER
STORMS THAT PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM....KAS
AVIATION...AR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
438 AM EDT MON APR 25 2011

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-261145-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
438 AM EDT MON APR 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND AGAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME OF THE
STORMS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HAIL...ANY WIND DAMAGE...OR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON.

MB

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
922 PM EDT MON APR 25 2011

KYZ106-107-109-110-112-113-119-120-260200-
JOHNSON-MARTIN-MORGAN-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-PIKE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
922 PM EDT MON APR 25 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH
1000 PM EDT MONDAY EVENING...

   EAST CENTRAL MORGAN...
   JOHNSON...
   MARTIN...
   MAGOFFIN...
   NORTHERN FLOYD...
   NORTHWESTERN PIKE...
   EXTREME EAST CENTRAL BREATHITT AND
   NORTH CENTRAL KNOTT.

AT 921 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM SKAGGS TO GAPVILLE TO HANDSHOE...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM SALYERSVILLE TO 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SALYERSVILLE TO
9 MILES NORTHEAST OF HINDMAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...SALYERSVILLE
AND FALCON AROUND 930 PM EDT...BRAINARD...DAVID AND NILES AROUND 935
PM EDT...ELNA AND PRESTONSBURG AROUND 940 PM EDT...FLATGAP AROUND
945 PM EDT...WINIFRED AROUND 950 PM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT BRIEF VERY HEAVY HOUR...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50
MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

PELTON