Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
230 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
SLOWLY S OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. AS A RESULT...DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING SE OF A JESUP TO LIVE OAK LINE AND NW OF
A OCALA TO ST AUGUSTINE LINE. 2 PM RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S OVER
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR TO NEAR 90 AT THE COAST.

.SHORT TERM...TSTM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM SCATTERED
TO LOW END LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA...STARTING ALONG THE GULF COAST
IN THE MORNINGS AND SHIFTING E TO MEET UP WITH A MID-AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE. MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE SOME RAINFALL...WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS E OF I-75 IN NE FL. WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
IMPACT MAINLY SE GA...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF OVERNIGHT POPS.
HOWEVER...THESE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME.

SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD GENERALLY E TO NE FROM ONGOING
WILDFIRES. OUTPUT FROM HONEY PRAIRIE FIRE HAS DECREASED ENUF TO
CANCEL DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR EXTREME SE GA AND NASSAU COUNTY IN
NE FL. HOWEVER...AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE THERE. NAM HAS
TRANSPORT WIND SHIFTING TO NW DURING THE EVENING...BUT THINK THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN OUTFLOWS IN THE MODEL. ALTHEA
THIS MAY OCCUR...HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE PAINTING SMOKE MOSTLY TO
THE E OF THE FIRE.

.LONG TERM...HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST. NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPO MVFR TO IFR DUE HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS AFTN
AS CONVECTION MOVES WSW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET...THEN WINDS WILL BECOME WSW AGAIN
TOWARD EARLY MORNING. SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS ENE OF JAX...CRG
AND SSI EARLY TOMORROW...WITH LOW CIGS DUE TO THE PLUME LIKELY. HAVE
INDICATED THIS EXPECTED TREND IN THE TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...EVENING SLY SURGE AROUND 15 KTS IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE WATERS...THEN SSW FLOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2-4 FT. WINDS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SSE LATE MON INTO TUE NEXT WEEK AS SFC RIDGE
BUILDS N OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  94  72  94 /  40  30  20  40
SSI  76  90  76  90 /  40  30  20  30
JAX  73  92  73  92 /  40  50  30  40
SGJ  75  88  74  88 /  30  50  30  40
GNV  72  92  72  92 /  30  60  30  50
OCF  73  93  72  91 /  30  60  40  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

CARROLL/ENYEDI/PRESNALL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1025 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-241000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
1025 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NASSAU
COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA THROUGH 4 PM...
...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...
...SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

WILDFIRES CONTINUE TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
REFER TO THE LATEST SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND DENSE SMOKE
ADVISORY. LINKS TO WILDFIRE INFORMATION AND COUNTY BURN BANS CAN BE
FOUND ON THE FRONT PAGE OF OUR WEBSITE.

A PREVAILING SOUTHWEST WIND TODAY WILL ADVANCE THE GULF COAST
SEABREEZE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
GENERALLY INITIATE WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR LATE THIS MORNING. AS
THE DAY UNFOLDS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME
MOST NUMEROUS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR DUE TO A SEABREEZE
MERGER. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE STORMS.
PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING
THE GREATEST THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MAINLY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS...SMALL
HAIL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED IN
THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE TODAY IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

ECZ/SEC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
503 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW GARDI              31.56N 81.83W
06/23/2011                   WAYNE              GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED 15 TREES AND SOME POWERLINES
            DOWN SOUTH OF JESUP ALONG GA HIGHWAY 27.

&&

SEP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
505 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

GAZ150-151-232145-
PIERCE-WARE-
505 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN WARE
AND PIERCE COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS VALID UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

AT 505 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 3 MILES EAST OF WARESBORO...OR 4 MILES WEST OF
WAYCROSS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND WARESBORO...WAYCROSS...SUNNYSIDE...
DEENWOOD...BLACKSHEAR AND BRISTOL THROUGH 545 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS OF
40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR WIND DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3146 8222 3128 8205 3127 8209 3127 8211
      3126 8213 3122 8225 3123 8228 3120 8229
      3114 8246 3125 8258
TIME...MOT...LOC 2105Z 246DEG 15KT 3124 8240

ZIBURA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
506 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 W MAYPORT             30.39N 81.48W
06/23/2011  M49 MPH          DUVAL              FL   MESONET

            MESONET OBSERVATION INDICATED A GUST TO 49 MPH FROM THE
            WEST.

&&

ARS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
510 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

FLZ040-232200-
MARION-
510 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHWESTERN
MARION COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
VALID UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 511 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER SANTOS...OR 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OCALA...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
AFFECT AREAS AROUND SUMMERFIELD...SANTOS...OCALA AIRPORT...OCALA...
BELLEVIEW...SILVER SPRINGS SHORES...LYNNE AND BURBANK THROUGH 600 PM
EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2896 8231 2901 8240 2901 8243 2920 8239
      2932 8193 2906 8188 2895 8219
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 247DEG 6KT 2912 8208

PETERSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
510 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 W MAYPORT             30.39N 81.48W
06/23/2011  M56.00 MPH       DUVAL              FL   MESONET

            MESONET OBSERVATION INDICATED A GUST TO 56 MPH FROM THE
            WEST.

&&

ARS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
513 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

GAZ136-151>153-232200-
BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-PIERCE-WAYNE-
513 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WAYNE...
NORTHEASTERN PIERCE...NORTHEASTERN BRANTLEY AND NORTHWESTERN GLYNN
COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS VALID UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 514 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 6 MILES WEST OF MOUNT PLEASANT...OR 7 MILES
SOUTH OF GARDI...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THESE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND SCREVEN...JESUP...
HORTENSE...GARDI...BROADHURST...DOCTORTOWN...MOUNT PLEASANT AND
EVERETT THROUGH 600 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR WIND DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3157 8170 3141 8160 3131 8169 3128 8205
      3146 8222 3149 8218 3147 8216 3147 8213
      3152 8213 3170 8189
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 245DEG 13KT 3144 8176

ZIBURA