Severe Thunderstorm Warning 189, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
230 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
SLOWLY S OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. AS A RESULT...DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING SE OF A JESUP TO LIVE OAK LINE AND NW OF
A OCALA TO ST AUGUSTINE LINE. 2 PM RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S OVER
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR TO NEAR 90 AT THE COAST.

.SHORT TERM...TSTM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM SCATTERED
TO LOW END LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA...STARTING ALONG THE GULF COAST
IN THE MORNINGS AND SHIFTING E TO MEET UP WITH A MID-AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE. MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE SOME RAINFALL...WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS E OF I-75 IN NE FL. WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
IMPACT MAINLY SE GA...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF OVERNIGHT POPS.
HOWEVER...THESE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME.

SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD GENERALLY E TO NE FROM ONGOING
WILDFIRES. OUTPUT FROM HONEY PRAIRIE FIRE HAS DECREASED ENUF TO
CANCEL DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR EXTREME SE GA AND NASSAU COUNTY IN
NE FL. HOWEVER...AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE THERE. NAM HAS
TRANSPORT WIND SHIFTING TO NW DURING THE EVENING...BUT THINK THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN OUTFLOWS IN THE MODEL. ALTHEA
THIS MAY OCCUR...HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE PAINTING SMOKE MOSTLY TO
THE E OF THE FIRE.

.LONG TERM...HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST. NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPO MVFR TO IFR DUE HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS AFTN
AS CONVECTION MOVES WSW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET...THEN WINDS WILL BECOME WSW AGAIN
TOWARD EARLY MORNING. SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS ENE OF JAX...CRG
AND SSI EARLY TOMORROW...WITH LOW CIGS DUE TO THE PLUME LIKELY. HAVE
INDICATED THIS EXPECTED TREND IN THE TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...EVENING SLY SURGE AROUND 15 KTS IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE WATERS...THEN SSW FLOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2-4 FT. WINDS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SSE LATE MON INTO TUE NEXT WEEK AS SFC RIDGE
BUILDS N OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  94  72  94 /  40  30  20  40
SSI  76  90  76  90 /  40  30  20  30
JAX  73  92  73  92 /  40  50  30  40
SGJ  75  88  74  88 /  30  50  30  40
GNV  72  92  72  92 /  30  60  30  50
OCF  73  93  72  91 /  30  60  40  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

CARROLL/ENYEDI/PRESNALL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1025 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-241000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
1025 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NASSAU
COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA THROUGH 4 PM...
...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...
...SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

WILDFIRES CONTINUE TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
REFER TO THE LATEST SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND DENSE SMOKE
ADVISORY. LINKS TO WILDFIRE INFORMATION AND COUNTY BURN BANS CAN BE
FOUND ON THE FRONT PAGE OF OUR WEBSITE.

A PREVAILING SOUTHWEST WIND TODAY WILL ADVANCE THE GULF COAST
SEABREEZE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
GENERALLY INITIATE WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR LATE THIS MORNING. AS
THE DAY UNFOLDS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME
MOST NUMEROUS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR DUE TO A SEABREEZE
MERGER. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE STORMS.
PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING
THE GREATEST THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MAINLY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS...SMALL
HAIL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED IN
THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE TODAY IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

ECZ/SEC

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