Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
845 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

.UPDATE...SHOWERS PASSED OVER THE HONEY PRAIRIE WILDFIRE EARLIER
THIS MORNING WITH RADAR ESTIMATES ARND 0.1 INCH. HOPEFULLY THIS
IS JUST THE BEGINNING. HPC PLACES A QUARTER INCH ACRS INTERIOR SE
GA THRU 18Z AND APPROX ONE HALF INCH OVER A 24 HOUR PERIOD. KJAX
MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH 500MB TEMP OF
-13C...CAPE OVER 2200J BY TIME OF PEAK HEATING AND LI OF -6.9.
MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE HAIL FOLLOWED BY STRONG WIND GUSTS.
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND HAVE NO UPDATES ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...A FEW SHOWERS WILL APPROACH SSI IN THE MORNING. TSRA
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE AT
TERMINALS THIS AFTN. HAVE MAINTAINED VCTS WORDING AFTER 16Z-17Z
WITH A TEMPO FOR VCTS.

&&

.MARINE...BUOYS ARE REPORTING MAINLY SW WINDS ARND 10KT. SEAS
REMAIN DOMINATED BY EASTERLY SWELLS ARND 3FT WITH PERIOD OF 12-13
SEC. WILL KEEP SCEC HEADLINES FOR OFFSHORE WATERS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS ON
SUNDAY...WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE HOLDING TO OUR NORTH. OFFSHORE
WINDS WILL BECOME ELEVATED AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
RESPONSE TO AFOREMENTIONED LOW...ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL TREND WILL
BE LOWERING SEAS AS NORTHEAST SWELLS SUBSIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  87  62  84  57 /  70  30   0   0
SSI  85  67  82  65 /  60  30   0  10
JAX  90  63  85  60 /  60  30   0  10
SGJ  89  66  83  63 /  50  30   0   0
GNV  89  65  85  60 /  50  30   0   0
OCF  90  64  86  60 /  50  30   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

MKT/PK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
422 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-151000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
422 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES...

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG THIS AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE SMALL HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS.

THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT EAST COAST BEACHES
DUE TO EASTERLY SWELLS.

A LARGE WILDFIRE CONTINUES TO BURN SOUTH OF STEPHEN FOSTER STATE PARK
TO NEAR THE FLORIDA-GEORGIA STATE LINE. THE SMOKE WILL DRIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY TOWARDS HILLIARD...FOLKSTON...WOODBINE AND BRUNSWICK
GEORGIA. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS MAY OCCUR IN THESE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY DUE TO
EASTERLY SWELLS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON IF WATCHES OR
WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

MZ

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