Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
220 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

.SHORT TERM...CONVECTION IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS OVER COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO
NEAR ST. AUGUSTINE AND ALSO SOUTH OF I-10 CORRIDOR. LIGHTER
CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER REMAINDER OF THE AREA. COLD FRONT IS
OVER FL PANHANDLE WEST OF DESTIN. ISOLD STORMS ARE DEVELOPING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL COME THRU LATE TONIGHT.
COOLER...BREEZY...AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY RESULTING
IN A PLEASANT DAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S THEN LOWS IN THE 50S
THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY
AS UPPER LOW MEANDERS IN CIRCLES NORTH OF THE AREA. COOL POCKET
ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HELP KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S OVER SE GA
RANGING TO MID 80S FOR THE SRN TIER.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY AIR (PWATS<1")
WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF UPPER LOW WILL KEEP POPS NIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH WITH
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND PWATS
INCREASE ABOVE AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND THEN WARM BACK TO NEAR CLIMO FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AREAL
COVERAGE DECREASING BY 22Z. REDUCED CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR THESE STORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH ANY REMAINING STORMS
EXPECTED TO END AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY...THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA WATERS EARLY SUNDAY.
THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL
BE HOLDING TO OUR NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ANOTHER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW WILL PASS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BECOME
ELEVATED AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO
AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND FRONTS...ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE
LOWERING SEAS AS NORTHEAST SWELLS SUBSIDE.

&&

.FIREWX...

RH VALUES WILL NEAR THE CRITICAL VALUE OF 35 PERCENT ACROSS THE
SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA ON SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  60  81  55  78 /  30   0  10  30
SSI  66  82  62  78 /  40   0  10  30
JAX  63  83  59  81 /  30   0  10  20
SGJ  67  83  62  80 /  40   0  10  20
GNV  64  84  58  81 /  30   0  10  20
OCF  65  85  59  82 /  30   0  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

TRABERT/STRUBLE/PRESNALL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
422 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-151000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
422 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES...

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG THIS AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE SMALL HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS.

THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT EAST COAST BEACHES
DUE TO EASTERLY SWELLS.

A LARGE WILDFIRE CONTINUES TO BURN SOUTH OF STEPHEN FOSTER STATE PARK
TO NEAR THE FLORIDA-GEORGIA STATE LINE. THE SMOKE WILL DRIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY TOWARDS HILLIARD...FOLKSTON...WOODBINE AND BRUNSWICK
GEORGIA. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS MAY OCCUR IN THESE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY DUE TO
EASTERLY SWELLS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON IF WATCHES OR
WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

MZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
543 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

GAZ132-133-142230-
COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-
543 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN JEFF
DAVIS AND NORTHERN COFFEE COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

AT 544 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 11 MILES WEST OF AMBROSE...OR 4 MILES
NORTHEAST OF OCILLA...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THESE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND AMBROSE...BROXTON...
PRIDGEN...SNIPESVILLE AND DENTON THROUGH 630 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE
QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3169 8260 3153 8308 3161 8306 3165 8302
      3168 8300 3178 8300 3179 8299 3179 8287
      3182 8284 3184 8280 3186 8278 3186 8276
      3190 8269
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 249DEG 25KT 3166 8313

PETERSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
602 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

FLZ020-022-GAZ162-163-142245-
CLINCH-COLUMBIA-ECHOLS-HAMILTON-
602 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN
CLINCH...ECHOLS...NORTHEASTERN COLUMBIA AND NORTHEASTERN HAMILTON
COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID
UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

AT 602 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 8 MILES NORTH OF JASPER...OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF STATENVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND JASPER...BELMONT...NEEDMORE AND FARGO
THROUGH 645 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING
AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3084 8298 3083 8249 3082 8248 3040 8246
      3052 8306
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 276DEG 18KT 3063 8292

HESS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
628 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

FLZ020-021-142315-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-
628 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL
HAMILTON AND NORTHWESTERN SUWANNEE COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

AT 628 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BLUE SPRINGS...OR 8 MILES
WEST OF SUWANNEE RIVER STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THESE
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND BLUE SPRINGS...
SUWANNEE RIVER STATE PARK...WEST LAKE...NEWBURN...LIVE OAK AND
SUWANNEE SPRINGS THROUGH 715 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN
DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3050 8290 3021 8290 3029 8324 3031 8322
      3035 8322 3036 8320 3040 8318 3042 8323
      3046 8323 3047 8325 3050 8325 3056 8326
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 275DEG 28KT 3040 8327

STRUBLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
628 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     TSTM WND DMG     STATENVILLE             30.70N 83.03W
05/14/2011                   ECHOLS             GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            THE SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTED TREES DOWN ALONG HIGHWAYS
            129 AND 135 SOUTH.

&&

PP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
631 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

GAZ132-149-163-142315-
ATKINSON-CLINCH-COFFEE-
631 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ATKINSON...
NORTHWESTERN CLINCH AND SOUTHERN COFFEE COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...
SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

AT 632 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WILLACOOCHEE TO 20
MILES WEST OF DU PONT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THESE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND WILLACOOCHEE...PEARSON...
DU PONT...HOMERVILLE...COGDELL...AXSON AND ARGYLE THROUGH 715 PM EDT.
HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3144 8306 3148 8260 3147 8263 3128 8263
      3129 8266 3128 8270 3123 8270 3108 8262
      3098 8266 3097 8298 3118 8298 3119 8305
      3127 8304 3133 8307 3135 8311
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 265DEG 22KT 3137 8299 3105 8315

HESS