Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
430 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2011

.SYNOPSIS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A NEAR ZONAL AND
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATED
A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE GA WHICH WAS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH. THERE WERE
CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY DUE TO WEAK
UPGLIDE. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO NE FL THIS AM AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH. IR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING AN MCS IN THE
EASTERN GULF PRODUCING MASSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS WHICH WERE
MOVING EAST. A POSSIBLE OUTFLOW FROM THE MCS WAS PRODUCING STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE NE GULF SPREADING INTO N AND NE FL WHERE
THERE IS A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. UPPER IMPULSES WERE PRODUCING
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND UPPER SE GA WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...WILDFIRES CONTINUE ACROSS SE GA...MOST NOTABLY THE
ARABIA BAY IN NORTHERN CLINCH AND SESSOMS IN SOUTHERN BACON.

&&

.SHORT TERM (MON-WED)...

MONDAY...MCS MOVES EAST ACROSS CNTL FL THIS AM. FRONT STALLS OUT
OVER NE FL WITH THE FIRST IN THE SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING IN
FROM THE GULF OVER THE AREA. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH SHORT WAVE
ENERGY INTERACTING WITH THE BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGHEST POPS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
HAVE A SHARP N TO S POP DISTRIBUTION WITH HIGHEST POPS (CATEGORICAL)
TO THE SOUTH. MUCH COOLER TEMPS TO THE NORTH BEHIND FRONT. TEMPS
RANGING FROM MID 60S IN THE NORTH TO MID/UPPER 70S NE FL.

TUESDAY...DISTURBANCE EXITS THE AREA AND FRONT STALLS JUST TO THE
SOUTH. WILL SEE A NE FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. WILL KEEP LOW END CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTH NEAR THE STALLED FRONT AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. NE FLOW
WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS MUCH COOLER (AROUND 70).

WEDNESDAY...NEXT IN THE SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY
IN MOST AREAS. WILL HAVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KNOTS AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY SO SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG AND PRODUCE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z MODEL RUNS...
WITH THE GFS TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND GEM. THE MODELS
DEVELOP AND AMPLIFY AN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. A CONTINUED WET PATTERN CONTINUING THURSDAY WITH A SHORT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING
A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS POPS
OF 50% AREA WIDE. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO THE
POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL. DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN
NEXT WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE GULF.

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR AND IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCASIONALLY
AFFECT TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 18Z...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
CONVECTION AT GNV. FOR TONIGHT...ANTICIPATE IFR/MVFR CIGS AND WILL
LIKELY GO MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH GNV TAF WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

&&

.MARINE...NELY WINDS AT 15-20 KT OVER SE GA EXPECTED TO DECREASE
DURING THE DAY AS LOW PRES TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA...THEN WINDS INCREASE
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH SCEC CONDS LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MARINE
ZONES. NELY WINDS DECREASE AGAIN LATE TUE AS FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT BACK
NWD WITH A STRONGER FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS NEEDED WITH RH VALUES
REMAINING WELL ABOVE CRITERIA NEXT FEW DAYS. CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING MAY POSSIBLY SPARK NEW WILDFIRES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  66  48  67  59 /  50  20  20  30
SSI  67  54  65  61 /  50  20  20  30
JAX  75  56  69  61 /  60  30  20  20
SGJ  75  61  70  65 /  70  30  30  20
GNV  79  62  74  62 /  70  30  30  20
OCF  81  65  78  64 /  80  40  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

PP/ARS/SEC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
556 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2011

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-291000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
556 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2011

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
...AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

A FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND WILL COMBINE WITH FAST
MOVING IMPULSES FROM THE GULF TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AND PRODUCE STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS.

AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DUE TO SEVERAL
ONGOING WILDFIRES. WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WHICH MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL PUSH THE SMOKE TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST. WINDS MAY BE LOCALLY STRONG AND VARIABLE
NEAR STORMS. USE CAUTION WHEN DRIVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES COMING IN FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR
YOUR AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

PP/ARS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
245 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2011

FLZ035-036-280730-
ALACHUA-GILCHRIST-
245 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN ALACHUA
AND GILCHRIST COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND HAIL VALID UNTIL 330 AM
EDT...

AT 243 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TRENTON...OR 11
MILES SOUTH OF CROSS CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS AROUND TRENTON...BELL AND NEWBERRY
THROUGH 330 AM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM EDT MONDAY
MORNING FOR NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA.

LAT...LON 2966 8295 2969 8296 2975 8294 2976 8295
      2990 8280 2963 8242 2954 8266 2956 8267
      2956 8275 2958 8278 2960 8295 2964 8297
TIME...MOT...LOC 0643Z 241DEG 36KT 2949 8306

SHASHY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
401 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2011

FLZ031-032-036-280830-
ALACHUA-BRADFORD-CLAY-
401 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN
ALACHUA...SOUTHERN BRADFORD AND SOUTHWESTERN CLAY COUNTIES FOR SMALL
HAIL VALID UNTIL 430 AM EDT...

AT 401 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 12 MILES WEST OF WALDO...OR 6 MILES
NORTH OF GAINESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS AROUND WALDO...SAMPSON...
HAMPTON...STARKE...LAKE GENEVA AND KEYSTONE HEIGHTS THROUGH 430 AM
EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM EDT
MONDAY MORNING FOR NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA.

LAT...LON 3002 8203 2978 8197 2968 8233 2982 8241
TIME...MOT...LOC 0801Z 248DEG 32KT 2977 8234

SHASHY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
451 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2011

FLZ021-022-280915-
COLUMBIA-SUWANNEE-
451 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL
SUWANNEE AND WESTERN COLUMBIA COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL VALID UNTIL 515 AM EDT...

AT 450 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED OVER LURAVILLE...OR 6 MILES NORTH OF
MAYO...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
AREAS AROUND LURAVILLE...MCALPIN...WELLBORN AND HOUSTON THROUGH 515
AM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM EDT
MONDAY MORNING FOR NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA.

LAT...LON 3022 8324 3034 8279 3033 8279 3032 8274
      3033 8272 3015 8266 3006 8307 3010 8312
      3011 8316 3010 8319 3010 8320
TIME...MOT...LOC 0850Z 254DEG 31KT 3015 8311

CARROLL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
634 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2011

GAZ162-163-281115-
CLINCH-ECHOLS-
634 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL CLINCH
AND NORTHERN ECHOLS COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 715 AM EDT...

AT 634 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 5 MILES WEST OF MAYDAY...OR 9 MILES
NORTHWEST OF STATENVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS AROUND MAYDAY...NEEDMORE AND FARGO
THROUGH 715 AM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING
AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3081 8310 3083 8310 3085 8308 3087 8298
      3096 8298 3104 8260 3094 8250 3085 8248
      3082 8249 3082 8247 3065 8244 3073 8311
      3081 8312
TIME...MOT...LOC 1034Z 266DEG 27KT 3083 8300

CARROLL

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