Severe Thunderstorm Warning 298, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
300 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2011

...ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...

.SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO
IMPACT REGION UNDER MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. STRONGEST ACTIVITY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON IS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT
SUPPRESSES ACTIVITY ACROSS INLAND NE FL. REMAINDER OF THE INLAND
AREAS SHOULD FILL IN WITH CONVECTION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE MAIN THREAT WITH SOME
STRONG TSTMS BACK-BUILDING ACRS SERN GA...AND HAVE ISSUED MULTIPLE
FLOOD ADVISORIES TO HANDLE THESE AREAS. ISOLD STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH WET MICROBURSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET MAINLY
WITH MERGING CLUSTERS OF STORMS. ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DRIFT TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AT 5-10 MPH.

TONIGHT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO ONCE AGAIN WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET
BECOMING ISOLATED...WITH MOST ACTIVITY ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT
WIND FLOW AND HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG TO FORM ONCE
AGAIN AND SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME AREAS TO HAVE DENSE FOG. MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

THU...DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS
CLOSE TO 2 INCHES WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER NUMEROUS SHOWER AND TSTM DAY
WITH MOST ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SLOW STORM MOTION
WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A FEW ISOLD
STRONG/SEVERE WET MICROBURST STORMS AS WELL. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 80S.

FRI...COLD FRONT OVER THE SERN U.S. WILL SAG SE TOWARD THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA AND THIS WILL KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES ELEVATED WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUING...ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS WITH MAX TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 80S. THREATS WILL REMAIN THE SAME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND ISOLD STRONG/SEVERE WET MICROBURST STORMS...ALTHOUGH
STORM MOTION MAY BE A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 10-15
MPH AT TIMES.

SAT...MODELS START TO LOSE CONSENSUS BY THIS PERIOD...BUT OVERALL
TREND IS THAT FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG TO THE SE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...BISECTING THE LOCAL AREA NE-SW BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
LEAD TO THE HIGHEST POPS (NUMEROUS) ACRS NE FL AND SCATTERED POPS
ACRS SE GA. LOCALIZED FLOODING AND ISOLD STRONG/SEVERE STORMS STILL
POSSIBLE WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN...FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND
OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. SENDS A
SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY
LITTLE PCPN ACRS SE GA WHILE NE FL WILL STILL SEE ISOLD/SCATTERED
TSTM ACTIVITY IF THE FRONT IS SLOW MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF PCPN ON SUNDAY IS ONLY LOW-MODERATE AT THIS
TIME.

MON-WED...LARGE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID ATLC STATES AND PUSH LARGE AREA OF DRIER
MID/UPPER LEVEL AIRMASS INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL END MOST OF
THE PCPN AND HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SILENT 10% POPS. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO VALUES
IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING PRODUCING BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN.
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. MVFR VSBYS LATE
TONIGHT IN PATCH FOG.

&&

.MARINE...EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SWELLS PERSISTING. SEAS
WILL BE UP TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS. NO
HEADLINES.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TO CONTINUE DUE TO EASTERLY SWELLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  88  68  88 /  20  70  40  70
SSI  77  85  74  84 /  20  70  50  60
JAX  74  88  72  88 /  20  70  50  60
SGJ  76  88  74  89 /  20  70  50  60
GNV  72  89  71  90 /  20  70  30  70
OCF  72  91  70  91 /  20  70  30  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

HESS/ZIBURA/PRESNALL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1045 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2011

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-220930-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
1045 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2011

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS...

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND A MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...AND
PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. STORM MOTION WILL BE NORTHEAST
AROUND 10 MPH...WITH SLOW AND MERGING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 2
TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN LOCALIZED AREAS.

SMALL EASTERLY SWELLS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE A MODERATE RIP
CURRENT RISK AT THE BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES...AND A WEAK LOW EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA COAST. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MAY CONTINUE ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME BUT SPOTTERS
ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OR FLOODING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

ARS/JCH

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