Severe Thunderstorm Warning 297, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
308 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2011

...RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...

.SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW STORMS ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAVE EXHIBITED WEAK ROTATION AND ARE MOVING
SLOW ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING AT TIMES. A FEW STORMS
HAVE BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONGER ROTATION AND ELEVATED UPDRAFTS TO
MARK POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURST WINDS AT TIMES AND WARNINGS ARE
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

TONIGHT...DIURNAL ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS NE FL SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET WITH ALL INLAND
ACTIVITY LIKELY ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS LINGERING ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SE GA.
MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH JUST SOME PATCHY
OVERNIGHT FOG EXPECTED.

WED/THU...DEEP AND MOIST SELY STEERING FLOW WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES WILL KEEP ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAIN THREAT WITH SLOW
MOVEMENT TO AFTERNOON TSTM ACTIVITY. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMO VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

FRI...DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL DRIVE SHORTWAVE
ALOFT AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE INTO THE SERN U.S.
AND EXPECT RAINFALL CHANCES TO REMAIN ENHANCED WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MAX TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN REMAIN QUITE WARM IN THE UPPER 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAINING MUGGY IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SAT/SUN...MODELS HAVE AS EXPECTED SLOWED DOWN FRONTAL PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE FL...WHILE
FORECAST FOR SE GA WILL BE A BIT TOUGHER WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS
AND WILL DEPEND ON WHERE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS BISECTING THE FORECAST
AREA. MAX TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE 80S WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE 60S BY SUN NIGHT. STILL ONLY LOW-MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST DUE TO PROBLEMATIC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY POSITIONING.

MON/TUE...CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL NUDGE EASTWARD AND
SLIDE MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS WILL
REDUCE POPS DOWN INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. I HAVE CONTINUED TO
UNDERCUT THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS 30-40% POPS IN THIS
TIME FRAME...BUT NOT READY TO GO WITH NO RAIN IN THIS PERIOD YET.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR TO TEMPO IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION THIS
AFTN. SKIES WILL BECOME MORE SCT TONIGHT..ESPECIALLY INLAND...AND
TEMPO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY AT
GNV AND VQQ.

&&

.MARINE...ESE WINDS 10-15 KTS WILL CONTINUE WITH COMBINED SEAS 2-4
FT...WITH 5 FT POSSIBLE WELL OFFSHORE. MODELS DIVERGE ON THU WITH
THE STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF A COASTAL TROUGH WITH THE NAM12 MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS. HAVE USED A BLEND WHICH SHOWS NE WINDS 10
KTS OVER THE WATERS. WINDS BECOME MORE VRB INTO THE WEEKEND AND
LEANED TOWARD THE ENSEMBLE WHICH KEEPS SSW WINDS AND THE FRONT WEST
OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WED DUE TO
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND ENE SWELLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  69  89  71  87 /  40  60  30  70
SSI  75  85  76  85 /  40  40  30  50
JAX  73  88  74  87 /  30  50  20  60
SGJ  75  87  76  87 /  30  40  20  50
GNV  70  89  73  89 /  30  50  20  60
OCF  70  91  72  90 /  30  50  20  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

HESS/ENYEDI/WALKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
516 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2011

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-210930-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
516 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2011

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND MOIST CONDITIONS
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...
AND PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. STORM MOTION WILL BE NORTH
AROUND 10 MPH.

PERSISTENT EASTERLY SWELLS AND THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE A
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY
AND WILL ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME BUT SPOTTERS
ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OR FLOODING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

ARS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
628 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2011

FLZ040-202315-
MARION-
628 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN MARION
COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID
UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

AT 629 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OCALA AIRPORT...OR 12
MILES SOUTHEAST OF RAINBOW LAKES ESTATES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND OCALA
AIRPORT...OCALA...SPARR...REDDICK...LOWELL AND ANTHONY THROUGH 715 PM
EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2896 8225 2896 8231 2901 8240 2901 8242
      2940 8236 2936 8199 2895 8222
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 205DEG 17KT 2905 8229

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
647 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2011

FLZ023-030-031-202330-
BAKER-BRADFORD-UNION-
647 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN
BRADFORD...SOUTHERN BAKER AND UNION COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND
FUNNEL CLOUDS VALID UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

AT 647 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER LAKE BUTLER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.
THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND DUKES...LAKE
BUTLER...NEW RIVER...JOHNSTOWN...RAIFORD AND ELLERBEE THROUGH 730 PM
EDT. GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR DAMAGE. DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS
STORM. TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3022 8231 2999 8209 2989 8237 3003 8251
TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 230DEG 7KT 3002 8236

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
759 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2011

FLZ030>032-210045-
BRADFORD-CLAY-UNION-
759 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN CLAY...
NORTHEASTERN BRADFORD AND EASTERN UNION COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 845 PM EDT...

AT 759 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF STARKE...OR 6 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF RAIFORD...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND SAMPSON...RAIFORD...
ELLERBEE...STARKE...LAWTEY...MIDDLEBURG AND KINGSLEY THROUGH 845 PM
EDT. EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3013 8188 2987 8188 2992 8224 3010 8225
TIME...MOT...LOC 2359Z 274DEG 10KT 3001 8215

TRABERT

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