Severe Thunderstorm Warning 267, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
231 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

...DECREASING RAIN CHANCES BY MONDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROF AXIS HAS SHIFTED A BIT SE SINCE THIS MORNING.
LOOKING AT H2O VAPOR SAT IMAGERY...AIR APPEARS RELATIVELY DRY IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS COMPARED TO MOISTURE PLUMES NW AND SE OF
THE AREA. TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER THE NW AND S PORTIONS
OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THIS DEEPER MOISTURE. EXTREME SE GA REMAINS
NEARLY CLOUD-FREE AS OF 2 PM. EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH ATLANTIC SEABREEZE
ABOUT 5 MI INLAND AND W COAST SEABREEZE ABOUT 10 MI INLAND DUE TO
SW LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW.

.SHORT TERM...TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE THRU THE AFTN AND
EVENING AIDED BY VORT MAX TRAVERSING THE AREA IN CONCERT WITH
SEABREEZES AND OUTFLOWS. BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE BETWEEN THE I-75
AND HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDORS IN NE FL WITH A SECONDARY MAXIMUM OVER
OUR NW ZONES. ENUF SW TO W FLOW SHOULD BE PRESENT TO PUSH ACTIVITY
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BY EARLY EVENING.

E U.S. TROF IS PROGGED TO DIG OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS. THIS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY BRING IN DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. SUN
SHOULD SEE SIMILAR PRECIP COVERAGE AND PATTERN TO TODAY. BY MON...
SCATTERED POPS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO NE FL WITH ISOLD POPS OVER SE
GA.

FOR TEMPS...LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE MAV DURING THE DAY ON SUN AS
NAM APPEARS TO GENERATE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER...KEEPING MAX TEMPS
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S. OTHERWISE...A BLEND HAS BEEN USED.

.LONG TERM...TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD DUE
TO E COAST TROF. POPS WILL START THE PERIOD BELOW NORMAL BUT
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE IN THE COMING WEEK. FEW CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE TO EXISTING FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NE FL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE POSSIBLE.
HAVE INTRODUCED TS TO ALL OF OUR FL TAF SITES BETWEEN 19-20Z WITH
CONVECTIVE GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. CHANCES OF TS ARE LESS LIKELY AT SSI
THIS EVENING AS THE SEA BREEZE HAS ALREADY SHIFTED WEST OF THE SITE.
PRECIP WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH SKIES CLEARING THROUGH THE
NEXT AS WSW LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. BASED ON RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LIKELIHOOD OF RAINFALL AT GAINESVILLE AND CECIL FIELD AGAIN THIS
EVENING HAVE A PERIOD OF IFR DUE TO BR/LOW CIGS EARLY SUN MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL SHIFT WSW
OVER NIGHT WITH WINDS 10-15 KTS AND COMBINED SEAS 1-3 FT. COULD SEE
SOME ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MOVE OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS
EVENING DUE TO LIGHT WESTERLY STEERING FLOW. LATE MON INTO TUE FLOW
SHIFTS NNE AS A BROAD SURFACE LOW MOVES WESTWARD FROM S GA AND HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS DOWN THE ATLANTIC SEA BOARD STATES. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE EAST 10 KTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-3 FT TUE THROUGH THU
WITH SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
MONDAY...WITH HIGH DISPERSION NEAR 70 TO 75 ACROSS SE GA AND PORTIONS
OF NE FL MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
VALUES...BUT IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF NEAR CRITICAL
VALUES ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY ZONES OF N FL MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  96  72  95 /  40  40  30  20
SSI  78  93  76  93 /  30  40  30  10
JAX  75  95  74  96 /  30  50  30  30
SGJ  76  92  76  93 /  30  50  30  40
GNV  74  94  73  95 /  30  40  30  30
OCF  74  95  75  95 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

CARROLL/ENYEDI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1030 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-141000-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
1030 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...
...HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S ALONG WITH HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL
PUSH HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. DRINK
PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AIR-CONDITIONING IF POSSIBLE...REMAIN OUT
OF THE SUN...AND TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME
OUTSIDE.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SEABREEZES INTERACT WITH THE NEXT
IN A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLE
HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE DUE TO
THE SLOW STORM MOTION. STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC COAST LATE IN THE DAY AND MAY MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HEAT INDICES OF AROUND 105 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
FLORIDA ON MONDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WET DOWNBURSTS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SCATTERED STORMS RETURN AREA-WIDE ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE FOR THEIR AREA IF WARNINGS
ARE ISSUED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

PP/SEC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
332 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

FLZ033-037-132015-
PUTNAM-ST. JOHNS-
332 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHEASTERN
PUTNAM AND SOUTHERN ST. JOHNS COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 333 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 6 MILES WEST OF BOSTWICK...OR 10 MILES
NORTHWEST OF PALATKA...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. THESE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND BOSTWICK THROUGH 415 PM
EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING
AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2975 8142 2973 8176 2980 8181 2984 8173
      2984 8159 2988 8160 2989 8160 2991 8155
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 249DEG 9KT 2978 8173

SHULER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
338 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

GAZ135-136-132030-
APPLING-WAYNE-
338 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHWESTERN
WAYNE AND EASTERN APPLING COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 339 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 4 MILES EAST OF SURRENCY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS
AROUND SURRENCY THROUGH 430 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN
DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45
TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3183 8205 3183 8201 3179 8198 3180 8195
      3176 8193 3176 8191 3173 8191 3161 8217
      3175 8224 3185 8208
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 233DEG 18KT 3174 8210

ZAPPE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
345 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

FLZ040-132045-
MARION-
345 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL MARION
COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID
UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 346 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES SOUTH OF
LOWELL TO 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF SILVER SPRINGS SHORES...MOVING NORTH
AT 10 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
SILVER SPRINGS SHORES...SANTOS...OCALA AIRPORT...OCALA...LOWELL...
LYNNE...ANTHONY...REDDICK...SPARR AND BURBANK THROUGH 445 PM EDT.
HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2942 8224 2939 8201 2923 8180 2903 8196
      2922 8239
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 189DEG 7KT 2928 8219 2915 8203

SHULER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
358 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

FLZ040-132045-
MARION-
358 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN MARION
COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID
UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 358 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 3 MILES SOUTH OF WEIRSDALE...OR OVER THE
VILLAGES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND SUMMERFIELD...LAKE WEIR...WEIRSDALE AND
OCKLAWAHA THROUGH 445 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN
DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45
TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING
OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2896 8231 2902 8243 2908 8163 2896 8166
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 244DEG 5KT 2894 8194

SHULER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
403 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

FLZ037-132045-
PUTNAM-
403 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL PUTNAM
COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID
UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 403 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF WELAKA...OR 5 MILES WEST
OF POMONA PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH. THESE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND WELAKA...MANNVILLE...
HOLLISTER...CARRAWAY...SATSUMA...POMONA PARK...SAN MATEO...PALATKA...
ORANGE MILLS AND LAKE COMO THROUGH 445 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE
QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2940 8174 2943 8174 2943 8177 2945 8178
      2949 8178 2948 8180 2958 8186 2972 8189
      2973 8153 2950 8152
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 244DEG 5KT 2952 8167

SHULER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
405 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

FLZ025-033-132045-
DUVAL-ST. JOHNS-
405 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN ST.
JOHNS AND SOUTHEASTERN DUVAL COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 405 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 3 MILES SOUTH OF DURBIN...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF GUANA RIVER STATE PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH. THESE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND BAYARD...DURBIN...VILANO
BEACH...SOUTH PONTE VEDRA BEACH...SAWGRASS...PALM VALLEY AND GUANA
RIVER STATE PARK THROUGH 445 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN
DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45
TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING
OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2983 8143 3012 8162 3022 8137 3016 8134
      2995 8130 2992 8128
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 244DEG 5KT 3004 8146

SHULER