Severe Thunderstorm Warning 263, NWS Jacksonville, FL

786 
WWUS52 KJAX 132007
SVSJAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
407 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

FLC019-107-109-132017-
/O.EXP.KJAX.SV.W.0263.000000T0000Z-110813T2015Z/
CLAY FL-PUTNAM FL-ST. JOHNS FL-
407 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL ST. JOHNS...
NORTHEASTERN PUTNAM AND SOUTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 415
PM EDT...

ALTHOUGH THE WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT...SMALL HAIL...EXCESSIVE 
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE STILL 
POSSIBLE.

LAT...LON 2973 8142 2973 8176 2979 8178 2992 8156
TIME...MOT...LOC 2007Z 249DEG 9KT 2981 8163

$$

SHULER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
231 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

...DECREASING RAIN CHANCES BY MONDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROF AXIS HAS SHIFTED A BIT SE SINCE THIS MORNING.
LOOKING AT H2O VAPOR SAT IMAGERY...AIR APPEARS RELATIVELY DRY IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS COMPARED TO MOISTURE PLUMES NW AND SE OF
THE AREA. TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER THE NW AND S PORTIONS
OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THIS DEEPER MOISTURE. EXTREME SE GA REMAINS
NEARLY CLOUD-FREE AS OF 2 PM. EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH ATLANTIC SEABREEZE
ABOUT 5 MI INLAND AND W COAST SEABREEZE ABOUT 10 MI INLAND DUE TO
SW LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW.

.SHORT TERM...TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE THRU THE AFTN AND
EVENING AIDED BY VORT MAX TRAVERSING THE AREA IN CONCERT WITH
SEABREEZES AND OUTFLOWS. BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE BETWEEN THE I-75
AND HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDORS IN NE FL WITH A SECONDARY MAXIMUM OVER
OUR NW ZONES. ENUF SW TO W FLOW SHOULD BE PRESENT TO PUSH ACTIVITY
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BY EARLY EVENING.

E U.S. TROF IS PROGGED TO DIG OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS. THIS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY BRING IN DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. SUN
SHOULD SEE SIMILAR PRECIP COVERAGE AND PATTERN TO TODAY. BY MON...
SCATTERED POPS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO NE FL WITH ISOLD POPS OVER SE
GA.

FOR TEMPS...LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE MAV DURING THE DAY ON SUN AS
NAM APPEARS TO GENERATE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER...KEEPING MAX TEMPS
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S. OTHERWISE...A BLEND HAS BEEN USED.

.LONG TERM...TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD DUE
TO E COAST TROF. POPS WILL START THE PERIOD BELOW NORMAL BUT
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE IN THE COMING WEEK. FEW CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE TO EXISTING FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NE FL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE POSSIBLE.
HAVE INTRODUCED TS TO ALL OF OUR FL TAF SITES BETWEEN 19-20Z WITH
CONVECTIVE GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. CHANCES OF TS ARE LESS LIKELY AT SSI
THIS EVENING AS THE SEA BREEZE HAS ALREADY SHIFTED WEST OF THE SITE.
PRECIP WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH SKIES CLEARING THROUGH THE
NEXT AS WSW LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. BASED ON RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LIKELIHOOD OF RAINFALL AT GAINESVILLE AND CECIL FIELD AGAIN THIS
EVENING HAVE A PERIOD OF IFR DUE TO BR/LOW CIGS EARLY SUN MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL SHIFT WSW
OVER NIGHT WITH WINDS 10-15 KTS AND COMBINED SEAS 1-3 FT. COULD SEE
SOME ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MOVE OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS
EVENING DUE TO LIGHT WESTERLY STEERING FLOW. LATE MON INTO TUE FLOW
SHIFTS NNE AS A BROAD SURFACE LOW MOVES WESTWARD FROM S GA AND HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS DOWN THE ATLANTIC SEA BOARD STATES. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE EAST 10 KTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-3 FT TUE THROUGH THU
WITH SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
MONDAY...WITH HIGH DISPERSION NEAR 70 TO 75 ACROSS SE GA AND PORTIONS
OF NE FL MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
VALUES...BUT IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF NEAR CRITICAL
VALUES ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY ZONES OF N FL MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  96  72  95 /  40  40  30  20
SSI  78  93  76  93 /  30  40  30  10
JAX  75  95  74  96 /  30  50  30  30
SGJ  76  92  76  93 /  30  50  30  40
GNV  74  94  73  95 /  30  40  30  30
OCF  74  95  75  95 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

CARROLL/ENYEDI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1030 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-141000-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
1030 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...
...HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S ALONG WITH HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL
PUSH HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. DRINK
PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AIR-CONDITIONING IF POSSIBLE...REMAIN OUT
OF THE SUN...AND TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME
OUTSIDE.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SEABREEZES INTERACT WITH THE NEXT
IN A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLE
HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE DUE TO
THE SLOW STORM MOTION. STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC COAST LATE IN THE DAY AND MAY MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HEAT INDICES OF AROUND 105 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
FLORIDA ON MONDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WET DOWNBURSTS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SCATTERED STORMS RETURN AREA-WIDE ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE FOR THEIR AREA IF WARNINGS
ARE ISSUED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

PP/SEC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
145 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

FLZ040-131830-
MARION-
145 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN
MARION COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
VALID UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

AT 144 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES EAST OF
JUNIPER SPRINGS TO 16 MILES SOUTH OF JUNIPER SPRINGS OVER THE OCALA
NATIONAL FOREST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THESE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT INTEREST SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF JUNIPER
SPRINGS AND THOSE EAST OF LAKE WEIR THROUGH 230 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO
THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2896 8187 2904 8187 2929 8165 2928 8164
      2905 8163 2904 8165 2896 8165 2896 8166
      2895 8186
TIME...MOT...LOC 1744Z 209DEG 15KT 2917 8164 2897 8181

ENYEDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
252 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

GAZ134>136-131930-
APPLING-BACON-WAYNE-
252 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHWESTERN
WAYNE...SOUTHERN APPLING AND NORTHEASTERN BACON COUNTIES FOR STRONG
WINDS VALID UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

AT 252 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 6 MILES NORTH OF NEW LACY...OR 8 MILES
NORTHEAST OF ALMA...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WILL AFFECT AREAS AROUND NEW LACY AND SURRENCY THROUGH 330 PM EDT.
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR WIND DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3151 8209 3152 8222 3153 8223 3152 8224
      3153 8247 3171 8248 3176 8210
TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 267DEG 9KT 3163 8237

CARROLL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
304 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

GAZ132-133-131945-
COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-
304 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHWESTERN
JEFF DAVIS AND NORTHERN COFFEE COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 304 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 8 MILES WEST OF SNIPESVILLE...OR 11
MILES NORTH OF BROXTON...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND SNIPESVILLE THROUGH 345 PM
EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3180 8269 3164 8274 3173 8298 3179 8294
      3179 8291 3179 8287 3182 8284 3183 8280
TIME...MOT...LOC 1904Z 284DEG 5KT 3178 8288

ZAPPE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
318 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

FLZ037-040-132000-
MARION-PUTNAM-
318 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN PUTNAM
AND NORTHEASTERN MARION COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 319 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SALT SPRINGS...MOVING
NORTH AT 10 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS
AROUND SALT SPRINGS...GEORGETOWN AND WELAKA THROUGH 400 PM EDT. HAIL
UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2923 8174 2948 8182 2950 8161 2933 8164
      2932 8167 2929 8164 2923 8165
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 175DEG 9KT 2931 8170

SHULER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
322 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

FLZ032-033-132015-
CLAY-ST. JOHNS-
322 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN CLAY
AND WESTERN ST. JOHNS COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 323 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 5 MILES WEST OF PICOLATA...OR 14 MILES SOUTH
OF FRUIT COVE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THESE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND GREEN COVE SPRINGS...
PICOLATA AND BAKERSVILLE THROUGH 415 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER
INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3011 8158 2990 8138 2984 8170 2990 8176
TIME...MOT...LOC 1923Z 229DEG 7KT 2991 8166

SHULER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
332 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

FLZ033-037-132015-
PUTNAM-ST. JOHNS-
332 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHEASTERN
PUTNAM AND SOUTHERN ST. JOHNS COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 333 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 6 MILES WEST OF BOSTWICK...OR 10 MILES
NORTHWEST OF PALATKA...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. THESE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND BOSTWICK THROUGH 415 PM
EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING
AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2975 8142 2973 8176 2980 8181 2984 8173
      2984 8159 2988 8160 2989 8160 2991 8155
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 249DEG 9KT 2978 8173

SHULER