High Surf Advisory 3, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
212 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2011

...LOCAL NOR'EASTER TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG AND LARGE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE THE NEXT FEW DAYS CONTINUING THE STRONG AND WET
ONSHORE FLOW. POPS WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE EAST COAST AS
CONVERGENT BANDS DEVELOP AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
MODELS SHOW HEAVY RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL FL ON SATURDAY SHIFTING
NORTH INTO NE FL AND SE GA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A FLOOD WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED WITH THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE. MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL
EXIST WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF A SURFACE LOW EXPECTED
TO FORM IN THE CARIBBEAN. GFS STILL BRINGS THE LOW UP THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA WHILE NAM AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER AND MOVE IT INTO
THE EASTERN GULF BEFORE MOVING IT NE. IN ANY EVENT A PROLONGED
WINDY AND WEST LOCAL NOR'EASTER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD WILL DEPEND
ON EVOLUTION OF LOW PROGGED TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GFS IS MUCH FASTER WITH THE LOW MOVEMENT THAN ECMWF SO
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN EXTENDED FORECAST. AS LOW MOVES UP THE
EAST COAST IT SHOULD SHIFT THE DEEP MOISTURE NORTH OF OUR AREA.
UPPER TROUGHING AND ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
AREA...KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTIVE RAINBANDS/CONVERGENT BANDS MOVING IN FROM OFF THE OCEAN
WILL BE THE MAIN PROBLEM NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL KEEP THE GREATEST
LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTION AT FIELDS CLOSE TO THE OCEAN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND DECREASE WINDS INLAND FOR FIELDS WEST OF THE ST
JOHNS RIVER.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE AT ST AUGUSTINE CMAN SITE TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WILL
INCREASE THE WINDS OVER THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS ON MONDAY AS
EITHER THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OR TRIPLE POINT (OR EVEN A TRIPLE
POINT LOW) DEPENDING UPON THE MODEL YOU LIKE TRANSITS THE AREA.
RIGHT NOW HAVE GONE WITH CONSENSUS AND AM USING BEEFED UP ECMWF
WINDS FOR MONDAY. WILL LIKELY NEED TO HOIST GALE WARNINGS SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: LARGE BREAKERS AND PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
MAINTAIN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  60  80  62  77 /  30  30  20  70
SSI  68  77  69  78 /  70  60  70  80
JAX  67  80  67  80 /  60  50  60  80
SGJ  73  79  73  82 /  60  60  60  70
GNV  66  81  66  79 /  40  50  30  50
OCF  66  82  68  82 /  40  50  40  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR DUVAL-FLAGLER-NASSAU-
     ST JOHNS.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

GA...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

ZIBURA/SANDRIK/MCALLISTER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
529 AM EDT FRI OCT 7 2011

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-080930-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
529 AM EDT FRI OCT 7 2011

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...
...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...
...SIGNIFICANT COASTAL EVENT LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND....

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST AGAIN TODAY. WINDS
WILL BECOME SUSTAINED AT 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH AT THE
BEACHES AND ALONG THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT EAST COAST BEACHES
DUE TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND INCREASING SURF. PLEASE REFER TO
THE LATEST COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE AND SURF ZONE FORECAST FOR
DETAILS.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST TODAY AS FAST MOVING BANDS OF PRECIP MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE
ATLANTIC. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. RAIN BANDS WILL FIRST FOCUS
ALONG THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND THEN SHIFT NORTH TO INCLUDE
THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST BY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

A STRONG EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS REGIME WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS AND POSE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL IMPACTS WHICH
INCLUDE HIGH SURF...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS...BEACH EROSION AND
COASTAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING BANDS OF SHOWERS
ESTABLISH. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CARIBBEAN
THIS WEEKEND. THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AND LOCAL AND MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
FUTURE FORECASTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

JDS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
548 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2011

FLZ024-025-032-033-GAZ165-166-072345-
CLAY-COASTAL CAMDEN-DUVAL-INLAND CAMDEN-NASSAU-ST. JOHNS-
548 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN CLAY...
NORTHERN ST. JOHNS...CAMDEN...DUVAL AND NASSAU COUNTIES FOR STRONG
WINDS VALID UNTIL 745 PM EDT...

AT 546 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 6 MILES EAST OF FERNANDINA BEACH AND ALSO 30
MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE BEACH...MOVING WEST AT 25 MPH. THESE
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS AROUND CUMBERLAND
ISLAND...KINGS BAY BASE...DUNGENESS...FERNANDINA BEACH...TALBOT
ISLAND...JACKSONVILLE BEACHES...AMELIA CITY...ST. MARYS...KINGSLAND
AND YULEE THROUGH 745 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR WIND DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING
AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2987 8185 3035 8199 3106 8183 3105 8150
      3102 8144 3098 8148 3096 8144 3098 8141
      3096 8139 3083 8142 3078 8145 3074 8145
      3070 8142 3051 8144 3048 8140 3025 8137
      2994 8129
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 068DEG 43KT 3067 8138

SHASHY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
559 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2011

FLZ040-072245-
MARION-
559 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL MARION
COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS VALID UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

AT 559 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT MCCOY...OR 8
MILES SOUTHWEST OF SALT SPRINGS...MOVING WEST AT 30 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS AROUND LYNNE...FORT MCCOY...
BURBANK...SPARR...SANTOS...ANTHONY...OCALA AND OCALA AIRPORT THROUGH
645 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR WIND DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2913 8195 2908 8224 2930 8231 2940 8184
      2937 8178 2921 8172
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 079DEG 27KT 2929 8190

SHASHY

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