Flood Watch 3, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
212 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2011

...LOCAL NOR'EASTER TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG AND LARGE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE THE NEXT FEW DAYS CONTINUING THE STRONG AND WET
ONSHORE FLOW. POPS WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE EAST COAST AS
CONVERGENT BANDS DEVELOP AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
MODELS SHOW HEAVY RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL FL ON SATURDAY SHIFTING
NORTH INTO NE FL AND SE GA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A FLOOD WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED WITH THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE. MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL
EXIST WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF A SURFACE LOW EXPECTED
TO FORM IN THE CARIBBEAN. GFS STILL BRINGS THE LOW UP THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA WHILE NAM AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER AND MOVE IT INTO
THE EASTERN GULF BEFORE MOVING IT NE. IN ANY EVENT A PROLONGED
WINDY AND WEST LOCAL NOR'EASTER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD WILL DEPEND
ON EVOLUTION OF LOW PROGGED TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GFS IS MUCH FASTER WITH THE LOW MOVEMENT THAN ECMWF SO
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN EXTENDED FORECAST. AS LOW MOVES UP THE
EAST COAST IT SHOULD SHIFT THE DEEP MOISTURE NORTH OF OUR AREA.
UPPER TROUGHING AND ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
AREA...KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTIVE RAINBANDS/CONVERGENT BANDS MOVING IN FROM OFF THE OCEAN
WILL BE THE MAIN PROBLEM NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL KEEP THE GREATEST
LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTION AT FIELDS CLOSE TO THE OCEAN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND DECREASE WINDS INLAND FOR FIELDS WEST OF THE ST
JOHNS RIVER.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE AT ST AUGUSTINE CMAN SITE TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WILL
INCREASE THE WINDS OVER THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS ON MONDAY AS
EITHER THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OR TRIPLE POINT (OR EVEN A TRIPLE
POINT LOW) DEPENDING UPON THE MODEL YOU LIKE TRANSITS THE AREA.
RIGHT NOW HAVE GONE WITH CONSENSUS AND AM USING BEEFED UP ECMWF
WINDS FOR MONDAY. WILL LIKELY NEED TO HOIST GALE WARNINGS SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: LARGE BREAKERS AND PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
MAINTAIN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  60  80  62  77 /  30  30  20  70
SSI  68  77  69  78 /  70  60  70  80
JAX  67  80  67  80 /  60  50  60  80
SGJ  73  79  73  82 /  60  60  60  70
GNV  66  81  66  79 /  40  50  30  50
OCF  66  82  68  82 /  40  50  40  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR DUVAL-FLAGLER-NASSAU-
     ST JOHNS.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

GA...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

ZIBURA/SANDRIK/MCALLISTER