Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
400 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/
RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CIRCULATION AROUND A WEAKENED 590DM HIGH
CENTERED OVER NW MISSISSIPPI/EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EVIDENCE OF THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE IN A
RATHER SUPPRESSED CU FIELD OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI THAT EXTENDED
SOUTH TO JUST NORTH OF OUR HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED DEVELOPING ON LOCAL RADARS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 82. THE MORNING WET MICROBURST CHECKLIST DID SHOW SOME
POTENTIAL AND WITH HAWKINS FIELD...JACKSON AND VICKSBURG ALL
REPORTING 99F AT 2 PM...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
AND LOWEST INHIBITION RESIDES. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THE
CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER OFF WELL BEFORE MIDNIGHT. COME MONDAY THE
MID LEVEL HIGH WILL BE FURTHER WEAKENED OVER OUR AREA WHILE
REMAINING CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS IS PROGGED TO TRACK ESE AROUND THE HIGH
AND OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ALOFT OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES
DURING PEAK HEATING RESULTING IN VERTICAL TOTALS ABOVE 28. DEEP
MOISTURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE MONDAY WITH PWS BETWEEN AND
INCH AND A HALF AND TWO INCHES. THE GFS WAS RATHER STINGY WITH POPS
BUT THE NAM AND ECMWF SHOWED AT LEAST ISOLATED COVERAGE OF STORMS
ACROSS OUR WHOLE CWA. WL GO ABOVE MAVMOS WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF AND SCATTERED ACROSS THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH
THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA...THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL HAVE A GREATER
CHANCE OF OCCURRING OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE STEEPER LAPSE
RATES. WL INCLUDE MENTION OF STRONG STORM POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. MUCH
OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE DURING THE EVENING BUT
MODELS DISAGREE ABOUT CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ESPECIALLY
IN OUR NORTH. IT APPEARS THAT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP INTO
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI MONDAY NIGHT AND DEVELOP A WEAK SURFACE LOW
ALONG A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND BE THE FOCUS
FOR DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS WHILE
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE MORE CONSERVATIVE BUT ALL AGREE WITH GREATER
RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. GREATEST POPS
WILL BE CARRIED ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. /22/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO
GIVE WAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND SUBSIDENCE WILL BE ERODED
ENOUGH TO ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY. A WEAK
ZONE OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD TO HELP FOCUS AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

UPPER TROUGHING POSITIONED OVER NRN ZONES TUESDAY WILL DROP INTO
CNTRL/SRN ZONES WEDNESDAY AND AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS
FORECAST INTO NRN ZONES IN RIDGING THAT REDEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF
THE TROUGH. THE REGION WILL SIT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST
AND WEAK TROUGHING TO OUR EAST FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 2
INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY. 850 MB THETAE FIELDS ARE
FORECAST AROUND 340 DEGS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN 340 DEGS AND
ABOVE THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. /03/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
5-8KFT FEW TO SCT CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY ACROSS
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 THAT MAY LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS IF TAF SITE AFFECTED. THE MOST LIKELY TAF SITES TO BE
AFFECTED WOULD BE MEI AND HBG AND WILL CONTINUE VCTS IN TAFS AND
AMEND IF IMPACTS LOOK MORE IMMINENT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF
THE SOUTH AROUND 5-10KTS. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY 02Z OR SO AND
SKC SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT BR
IN THE MORNING FROM ABOUT 09Z-13Z BUT LIFT QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
/28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       72  97  72  96 /  24  25  27  32
MERIDIAN      71  96  70  95 /  20  27  39  35
VICKSBURG     72  97  70  95 /  24  24  21  29
HATTIESBURG   72  97  72  96 /  15  28  20  18
NATCHEZ       73  95  72  93 /  20  29  18  23
GREENVILLE    73  98  73  97 /  17  18  23  30
GREENWOOD     72  97  72  97 /  15  18  26  35

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

22/03/28

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
619 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2011

MSZ031-032350-
LOWNDES MS-
619 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2011

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 3 MILES EAST OF CRAWFORD AT 619 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHWESTERN LOWNDES COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3329 8843 3329 8867 3337 8867 3350 8854
      3334 8835
TIME...MOT...LOC 2319Z 226DEG 4KT 3332 8857

COHEN/GERARD

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>