Severe Thunderstorm Warning 529, NWS Jackson, MS

130 
WWUS54 KJAN 042312
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
612 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2011

MSC089-121-163-042330-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0529.000000T0000Z-110704T2330Z/
RANKIN MS-MADISON MS-YAZOO MS-
612 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN YAZOO...MADISON AND NORTH CENTRAL RANKIN COUNTIES...

AT 612 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
VAUGHAN MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 
FARMHAVEN...WAY...CAMERON...CAMDEN...SHARON AND CANTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS OF 60 MPH CAN BRING DOWN TREES...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN INJURY
AND PROPERTY DAMAGE. ROOFS OF MOBILE HOMES AND OUTBUILDINGS COULD BE
DAMAGED...AND MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO WELL BUILT HOMES AND STRUCTURES
COULD OCCUR.

&&

LAT...LON 3290 9001 3288 8994 3285 8975 3264 8973
      3261 8974 3259 8978 3255 8977 3251 8979
      3248 8998 3266 9024 3282 9027 3292 9017
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 290DEG 6KT 3277 9008

$$

DL

106 
WWUS54 KJAN 042333
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
633 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2011

MSC089-121-163-042342-
/O.EXP.KJAN.SV.W.0529.000000T0000Z-110704T2330Z/
RANKIN MS-MADISON MS-YAZOO MS-
633 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN YAZOO...MADISON AND
NORTH CENTRAL RANKIN COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

THE CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT PROMPTED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING 
HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AND THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO 
EXPIRE. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN YAZOO 
AND NORTHERN MADISON COUNTIES...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND 
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES REMAINS POSSIBLE.

LAT...LON 3290 9001 3288 8994 3285 8975 3264 8973
      3261 8974 3259 8978 3255 8977 3251 8979
      3248 8998 3266 9024 3282 9027 3292 9017
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 290DEG 6KT 3277 9008

$$

DL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
404 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2011

.DISCUSSION...

LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN MOST PROMINENT ALONG A
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE AXIS EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO
EAST CENTRAL MS WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE IS UP TO ~3500 J/KG AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER ~ 2 INCHES. AND STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND DCAPE UP TO 1200 J/KG ARE CONTRIBUTING TO AN ACTIVE MICROBURST
DAY. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH INTO THE TN
VALLEY REGION IS LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS
AND THIS COMBINED WITH AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS LED TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS NOW APPROACHING THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR. THESE STORMS ARE
BIT MORE MORE ORGANIZED AND WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS/HAIL AS THEY MOVE INTO A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. IT SEEMS
INEVITABLE THAT OUTFLOW FROM THE NRN CONVECTION AND SRN CONVECTION
WILL COMBINE TO INCREASE TSTM COVERAGE FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-20 AND
SOUTH OF HWY 82 AS WE GO INTO THE EARLY EVNG. GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT...BOUNDARY MERGERS...AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENTS...WILL MENTION
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IN ADDITION TO SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE HWO THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY COME TO AN END LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS NIGHTTIME COOLING AND CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING
STABILIZE THE AIRMASS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ARKLAMISS AS
WE GO INTO MID WEEK. THIS WILL SET UP A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR MAINLY
AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR MICROBURSTS.
THE RIDGE/TROUGH POSTIONS SEEM MOST FAVORABLE FOR GETTING GREATER
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR
TUESDAY AFTN/EVNG. AFTERNOON READINGS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS HOT
GIVEN INCREASED MOISTURE/CONVECTION AND DECREASING RIDGE INFLUENCE. /EC/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPSWING IN AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A WARM AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS DRAPED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH REMAINS IN PLACE. NO REAL
CHANGE IS EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE WEEK AS DEW POINTS HANG
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIMPING INTO NORTHERN MS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION IN THAT VICINITY THROUGH
THE WEEK...WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AS
INTENSE SURFACE HEATING RAMPS UP THE INSTABILITY. ENHANCED SEA BREEZE
ACTIVITY WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES FOR POSSIBLE
FOCUSING OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THOSE AREAS.

AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO HAVE AT LEAST A
DECENT SHOT AT A FEW SEVERE STORMS PRIMARILY DUE TO AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC LOW DRIFTING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT WILL
PROVIDE SOME ADDED FORCING...COUPLED WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
MARKED BY VERTICAL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 26C. PRIMARY RISK WITH
ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM MICROBURSTS
THANKS TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ASSOCIATED HIGH VALUES OF
DCAPE...AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UNDER THUNDERSTORM CORES.
VERTICAL TOTAL VALUES DROP-OFF SOMEWHAT THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
WHICH SHOULD HELP LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITIES THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING SEVERE POTENTIAL MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.
REGARDLESS...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY STARTING
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS DIMINISHING IN THE MID TO LATE EVENING
HOURS.

ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT REALLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE THROUGH
THE WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD TOP IN THE MID 90 DEGREE RANGE EACH
AFTERNOON...JUST A TAD ABOVE NORMAL. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S...NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. /BK/

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN DECKS 4-6K FEET WERE BEING OBSERVED THIS
AFTER OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM AREAS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH WITH MORE ISOLATED
COVERAGE TO THE NORTHWEST. ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH 04Z TUE WITH LCL MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN TSTMS. A FEW TSTMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH
AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. MODELS STILL INDICATE SOME ACTIVITY MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE NORTH AS A BOUNDARY SAGS FURTHER
SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z OF 3-5SM
VISIBILITIES WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT RECEIVE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TODAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. /22/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       73  95  72  94 /  37  34  43  28
MERIDIAN      70  95  70  94 /  32  36  43  21
VICKSBURG     73  95  71  93 /  45  31  47  27
HATTIESBURG   73  95  73  94 /  26  39  21  25
NATCHEZ       72  93  72  91 /  25  44  24  32
GREENVILLE    75  96  73  94 /  52  34  46  24
GREENWOOD     73  95  72  94 /  48  36  47  27

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

EC/BK/22/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
416 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2011

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
052130-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
416 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING AS A VERY UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIRMASS SUPPORTS
THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS. THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER BE ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND
THEN SHIFT TO AREAS FARTHER NORTHWEST AS WE GO INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ALSO...THE VERY MOIST AIR AND SLOW
STORM MOVEMENT COULD LEAD TO A QUICK TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

EC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
452 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0449 PM     TSTM WND GST     HATTIESBURG             31.31N 89.31W
07/04/2011  E64.00 MPH       FORREST            MS   UNKNOWN

            WIND GUST ON WDAM SKYCAM ON TOP OF FORREST GENERAL
            HOSPITAL IN CENTRAL HATTIESBURG.

&&

JCULIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
458 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0456 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HATTIESBURG             31.31N 89.31W
07/04/2011                   FORREST            MS   PUBLIC

            REPORTS OF TREES DOWN AT HARDY AND 31ST STREET AS WELL AS
            28TH AVENUE IN HATTIESBURG.

&&

JCULIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
459 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0456 PM     HAIL             HATTIESBURG             31.31N 89.31W
07/04/2011  E1.25 INCH       FORREST            MS   PUBLIC

            QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL REPORTED.

0456 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HATTIESBURG             31.31N 89.31W
07/04/2011                   FORREST            MS   PUBLIC

            REPORTS OF TREES DOWN AT HARDY AND 31ST STREET AS WELL AS
            28TH AVENUE AND LEE CIRCLE IN HATTIESBURG.

&&

JCULIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
517 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0456 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HATTIESBURG             31.31N 89.31W
07/04/2011                   FORREST            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN THE FORREST GENERAL HOSPITAL AREA.

&&

JCULIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
531 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2011

MSZ027-042300-
CARROLL MS-
531 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2011

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTH OF SEVEN PINES AT 532 PM
CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN WEST CENTRAL CARROLL COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3345 8986 3329 8996 3335 9017 3347 9010
      3347 9009 3349 9009 3352 9008
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 324DEG 5KT 3343 9006

MME

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
534 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2011

MSZ045-042320-
NESHOBA MS-
534 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWESTERN NESHOBA COUNTY...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER DIXON AT 534 PM CDT...MOVING EAST
AT 5 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHWESTERN NESHOBA COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3258 8907 3258 8932 3276 8932 3276 8930
      3275 8907
TIME...MOT...LOC 2234Z 289DEG 5KT 3266 8922

DL