Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1200 PM CDT THU APR 21 2011

.UPDATE...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A CONSOLIDATED MCS HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL MS AND STRETCHING BACK IN NE LA. NOW
EXPECTED THIS FEATURE TO PUSH EAST AND BRING DOWNPOURS AND STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS OF EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ACTIVITY MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO GET INTO INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...BUT STORMS COULD BE MORE INTENSE THERE SINCE INSTABILITY
WILL BE RATHER HIGH (MLCAPE VALUES (>2500 J/KG). EXPECT PERIOD OF
MINIMAL PRECIP ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND FURTHER NORTH IN THE CWA
BEHIND THIS MCS FEATURE...BUT THERE STILL REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING CONVECTION TO SET UP ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

MAIN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO GREATLY INCREASE POPS IN SOUTHERN
ZONES. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CDT THU APR 21 2011/

UPDATE...VIGOROUS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE SLIDING IN AND TRAINING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. FEW...IF ANY...FORECAST MODELS SHOWED THE
WEATHER SITUATION UNFOLDING IN THIS MANNER...BUT IT APPEARS THE
SHALLOW BAROCLINIC ZONE SET UP AROUND I-20 IS THE AXIS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS OPPOSED TO THE DEEPER BOUNDARY MODELS WERE
TRIGGERING ON FURTHER NORTH.

HAVE MADE RATHER SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS EVOLUTION IN
THINKING. LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THAT RECEIVED HEAVY
RAINFALL YESTERDAY AND ARE IN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 7 PM WILL
REMAIN IN THE WATCH ALTHOUGH AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY REMAIN TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. STILL THINKING THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR THE AXIS OF CONVECTION TO LIFT NORTH INTO AT LEAST NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS FLOW BEGINS TO BACK
IN THE LOW LEVELS IN THE WAKE OF EXITING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
FURTHER SOUTH...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR WEST OF
I-55...CURRENTLY OBSERVED AXIS OF TRAINING CONVECTION SETTING UP
WILL POSE RISK OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. WE HAVE EXPANDED THE
FLASH FLOOD WARNING TODAY TO COVER THIS RISK FURTHER SOUTH...NOW
COVERING SE AR...AND THE REST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MS ALONG AND
NORTH OF DE KALB MS TO JACKSON METRO TO WINNSBORO LA LINE. RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL MAINLY BE FROM HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND SHEAR NEAR THE MAIN CONVECTIVE AXIS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO WANE THROUGH THE DAY.

HAVE ALSO UPDATED POPS AND TEMPS RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY TO ADDRESS
FORECAST CHANGES...LOWERING HIGH TEMP EXPECTATIONS A GOOD DEAL IN
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA WHERE CLOUDS AND RAIN COULD BE MORE
PERVASIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND THE LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS WILL
HAVE LESS CHANCE TO MIX OUT. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...BIG RAIN COMPLEX OVER MOST OF THE N/W CWA WITH A LARGE
BOWING LINE EVOLVING AND PUSHING ACROSS THE S/SE/E SECTIONS. LOOK
FOR MAINLY IFR/MVFR CEILINGS/VIS ACROSS THE N SECTIONS UNDER THIS
RAIN AREA. AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE...MVFR/VFR CEILINGS WILL
EXIST FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE THE LINE MOVES IN. WHEN THE LINE MOVES
IN...WINDS OF 30-40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH LOWER
VIS/CEILINGS. LOOK FOR A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST IN THE
WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       76  67  86  65 /  85  18  13   9
MERIDIAN      78  65  87  63 /  72  18  13   9
VICKSBURG     78  66  87  65 /  79  17  10   9
HATTIESBURG   85  68  89  64 /  60  11   5   6
NATCHEZ       82  68  87  66 /  72  10   9   6
GREENVILLE    75  66  84  65 /  49  30  13  10
GREENWOOD     74  67  85  65 /  60  34  13  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>049.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
LAZ007>009-015-     016-023-025.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

BB/CME

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