Severe Thunderstorm Warning 223, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
527 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH OF
THE AREA AND OVER EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE BOUNDARY STILL REMAINS FROM GREENWOOD BACK INTO
NORTHEAST TEXAS...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY TO THE WEST SEEMS TO BE MOVING NORTH AND EAST WITH A WEAK
UPPER WAVE. DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH HAS BEEN SLOW. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY WILL SINK FURTHER SOUTH AND STORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. WITH THE BOUNDARY
STALLED AND THE WAVE TO THE WEST NOT HELPING TO MOVE THE SYSTEM OUT
OF THE AREA...IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR SOUTH TO EXPECT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. WILL NOT ADJUST THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING AT THIS
TIME...SINCE STORMS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN EAST OF THE RIVER ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MOVEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY ALL COUNTIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH FOR THE DURATION.

THE LOCAL MODELS WERE SUGGESTING THE BEST WIND AND HAIL POTENTIAL
WILL REMAIN OVER EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THERE WERE SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS...WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S. THE BEST INSTABILITY WAS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...SO
EXPECTING STORMS OVER THE AREA TO INTENSIFY QUICKLY THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNSET. ANTICIPATING THE INSTABILITY TO CONTINUE TO LESSEN THROUGH
THE EVENING...BUT THE FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY INCREASE.
SHOWERS WERE FINALLY STARTING TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST...BASICALLY RIGHT ON THE BOUNDARY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
RADAR SHOWS THE AREA OF CONVERGENCE...GENERALLY STRETCHING FROM
BASTROP LOUISIANA TO TCHULA TO STARKVILLE...SO ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
INCREASE SHORTLY AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

FOR THE FORECAST...MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR THROUGH TONIGHT...EXPECTING THE BEST STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN
TO REMAIN OVER THAT AREA. THE BOUNDARY/UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT
NORTH THURSDAY...AS THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US RETROGRADES.
LOOKING FOR THE RAIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY LINGERING THROUGH 03-6Z.
MAINTAINED HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING...WITH SO MUCH MOISTURE FLOWING
INTO THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO LOOK AT THE EXTENDING THE FFA THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER BY FRIDAY AND THE AREA WILL BE
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WENT WITH GUIDANCE TEMPS...MID TO UPPER 80S SEEM OK FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WILL SEE SOME VERY WARM LOWS WITH VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS NORTHERNWESTERN MS. SHWRS/TSTMS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS NE MS...WITH DEVELOPMENT BACK TO THE WEST APPROACHING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HEAVY RAIN...HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS XPCTD INVOF THIS ACTIVITY. VFR CONDS WL PERSIST FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND S OF I-20 TODAY...WITH MVFR/OCSNL VFR CIG LIKELY CONTINUING
ACROSS NRN MS THRU THE DAY. OUTSIDE OF STORMS SFC WINDS WL BE OUT OF
THE SOUTH IN THE 7-12KT RANGE...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 18KTS PSBL ACROSS
SRN MS. THE CHANCE FOR SHWRS/TSTMS WL PERSIST N OF I-20 THRU THE
NIGHT TONIGHT. /BK/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       66  84  67  86 /  33  18  10  11
MERIDIAN      64  85  62  86 /  40  19  13  12
VICKSBURG     65  85  66  87 /  30  19   9  11
HATTIESBURG   68  87  65  87 /  16  14   9   5
NATCHEZ       67  86  65  84 /  20  15   9   9
GREENVILLE    62  81  65  86 /  59  36  16  13
GREENWOOD     61  82  66  86 /  61  37  17  14

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MSZ018-019-025>039-
     044>046.

LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

07/BK/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
427 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

LAZ024-026-MSZ059>066-072>074-212130-
CATAHOULA-CONCORDIA-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
427 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023-025-MSZ018-019-025>058-212130-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-TENSAS-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-
CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-
WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-
SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-
427 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE PRIMARY RISKS ARE LARGE HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH. A FEW
TORNADOES CAN BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY FOR EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.
WHILE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH
OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR...THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20.

IN ADDITION TO THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. MANY AREAS ALONG A
LINE FROM HOLLANDALE TO DURANT TO MACON HAVE RECEIVED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. HEAVY DOWNPOURS HAVE ALREADY CAUSED ROAD
CLOSURES IN A FEW COMMUNITIES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
617 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             4 S STARKVILLE          33.40N 88.82W
04/20/2011  E0.75 INCH       OKTIBBEHA          MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
625 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

MSZ039-202355-
NOXUBEE MS-
625 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

...STRONG STORM RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING OVER EASTERN NOXUBEE COUNTY...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF PAULETTE AT
626 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN EAST CENTRAL NOXUBEE COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3301 8833 3298 8834 3298 8853 3316 8856
      3319 8831
TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 264DEG 22KT 3308 8844

AEG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
640 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

ARZ075-MSZ018-019-025-034-210010-
CHICOT AR-BOLIVAR MS-SUNFLOWER MS-LEFLORE MS-WASHINGTON MS-
640 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE
HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 10 MILES EAST OF
PARCHMAN TO 4 MILES SOUTH OF GREENVILLE AT 641 PM CDT...MOVING EAST
AT 25 MPH.

THESE STORMS ARE INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN WASHINGTON...NORTHWESTERN LEFLORE...SUNFLOWER...
SOUTHERN BOLIVAR AND NORTHEASTERN CHICOT COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR
THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3393 9044 3382 9044 3381 9029 3377 9023
      3374 9029 3371 9029 3318 9090 3336 9115
      3396 9048
TIME...MOT...LOC 2341Z 270DEG 22KT 3396 9032 3334 9106

MRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
650 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     HAIL             ELLIOTT                 33.68N 89.75W
04/20/2011  E1.00 INCH       GRENADA            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

0635 PM     HAIL             1 NW COLUMBUS           33.52N 88.42W
04/20/2011  E0.75 INCH       LOWNDES            MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORTED ALONG MILITARY RD

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
654 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     HAIL             2 SE DUCK HILL          33.61N 89.69W
04/20/2011  E2.50 INCH       MONTGOMERY         MS   PUBLIC

            HALF DOLLAR TO TENNIS BALL HAIL NEAR DUCK HILL.

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
703 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0702 PM     HAIL             1 S HOLCOMB             33.75N 89.98W
04/20/2011  E1.00 INCH       GRENADA            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

0659 PM     HAIL             4 S HOLCOMB             33.70N 89.98W
04/20/2011  E1.00 INCH       GRENADA            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

GERARD